Patrick Mahomes prop bets – Syndication Server

2023 Super Bowl: Patrick Mahomes prop bet odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’ Super Bowl prop bets odds, with predictions and picks for the best prop bets to make.

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The Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) face off in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Sunday’s kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s odds for Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bets, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had 1 of the best seasons of his young career in 2022, leading the league in passing yards (5,250), passing TDs (41), passing 1st downs (272), passes of 20+ yards (73) and passes of 40+ yards (13) during the regular season.

Mahomes’ success makes his props some of the most enticing bets for the Super Bowl. Let’s dive into his player props and find the best bets.

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Patrick Mahomes 2023 Super Bowl prop bets

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:41 p.m. ET.

Passing yards: OVER 288.5 (-115)

The Over for Mahomes’ passing yards prop is 6-4 in his last 10 games, and he has also gone over 300 passing yards in 6 of his last 10 games.

The Eagles have allowed a team to throw for Over 288.5 passing yards just once this season — Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, who threw for 347 yards in a 40-33 win over the Eagles in Week 16. However, it’s no secret that the QB competition the Eagles faced this season was subpar at best.

Mahomes just put up 326 yards passing on the Cincinnati Bengals defense with a hurt ankle. In fact, that hurt ankle is part of the reason why he threw for more yards — he chose to stay in the pocket for most of the game instead of using his legs to pick up yardage. With 2 weeks of rest, Mahomes’ ankle should be better, but he should still be able to get close to 300.

LEAN OVER 288.5 (-115).

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Pass completions: OVER 25.5 (-115)

The Over in pass completions is split 5-5 in Mahomes’ last 10 games. The Under has generally hit when either the majority of the game was firmly in the Chiefs’ control (like the Chiefs’ wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders and Seattle Seahawks) or when the Chiefs’ offense struggled (like the Week 13 loss to the Bengals).

In recent games when the opposing team has been more competitive (like the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game or both matchups against the Denver Broncos), Mahomes has tended to throw more completions. This game should be close and competitive, so expect Mahomes to reach the Over.

BET OVER 25.5 (-115).

Passing TDs: OVER 1.5 (-220)

Mahomes has hit Over 1.5 passing TDs in 14 of 19 games this season, including 7 of his last 10. Over 1.5 is an easy bet, hence the low vig at -220.

This line would be more interesting if it moved to 2.5 passing TDs. Mahomes has gone Over 2.5 in 8 of 19 games this year, including 3 of his last 10. With the Chiefs’ running game rolling, I’d consider betting Under 2.5 passing TDs for Mahomes if that was an option.

Since it’s not an option, your best move is to bet OVER 1.5 (-220), but you should only include it in a parlay since the juice is so low.

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Rushing yards: UNDER 18.5 (-115)

Mahomes was forced to remain in the pocket for most of the AFC Championship Game due to the high-ankle sprain that he suffered in the Divisional Round. He picked up yards on his feet when it truly mattered but still ultimately rushed for just 8 yards.

In fact, Mahomes has rushed for just 8 yards in 4 of his last 5 games, and under 10 yards in 6 of his last 8. Mahomes is just as comfortable in the pocket as he is running, so don’t expect him to take off much in this game.

TAKE UNDER 18.5 (-115).

Interceptions thrown: UNDER 0.5 (-115)

Mahomes has thrown just 1 interception in his last 6 games. The Eagles defense, meanwhile, has 3 INTs in its last 8 games against non-impressive QB competition. It seems unlikely that Mahomes will give the ball away in such a pivotal matchup.

TAKE UNDER 0.5 (-115).

Pass attempts: OVER 38.5 (-115)

The Over is 5-5 in Mahomes’ last 10 with this stat. Similar to our rationale on taking OVER 25.5 (-115) PASS COMPLETIONS, we like the Over on pass attempts since the Chiefs tend to pass more against competitive squads.

LEAN OVER 38.5 (-125).

Rushing/receiving touchdown(s)

Anytime (+500) | 2+: (+5000) | 3+: (+15000)

AVOID. It’s very unlikely Mahomes will run 1 in given his ankle issues. Plus, he has just 4 rushing TDs this season and hasn’t had 1 since Week 16.

Passing yards

200+: (-2941) | 250+: (-375) | 300+: (-105)
350+: (+280) | 400+: (+1050) | +450: (+1200)

There’s good value in nearly doubling your money by betting on Mahomes to earn OVER 300 passing yards. He’s accomplished this feat in 11 out of 19 games this season, even against quality defenses like the Bengals, Broncos (twice), Los Angeles Chargers and 49ers. 350+ yards (+280) would be pushing it — he’s only gone over 350 four times this season — though it’s not out of the question.

Rushing yards

40+: (+650) | 50+: (+725)

AVOID.

Since we’re backing UNDER 18.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115), a play here wouldn’t make sense. Even if Mahomes manages to get 19+ rushing yards, he’s still unlikely to hit 40 — he’s done so only once this season.

More 2023 Super Bowl coverage

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Super Bowl prop bets: Bank on these Patrick Mahomes prop bets

Looking at Super Bowl prop bets centered around Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes prop bets, with odds, picks and predictions.

The Kansas City Chiefs are one win away from repeating as Super Bowl champions, once again led by QB Patrick Mahomes. With Super Bowl prop bets such a fun side-game to the actual Super Bowl odds, we’re focusing this one specifically on the top Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bets with NFL picks and predictions.

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bets

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET.

Patrick Mahomes passing yards: OVER 329.5 (-120)

Mahomes is going to throw it a ton Sunday night. He hasn’t attempted fewer than 30 passes since Week 7 and has topped 318 yards passing in seven of his last 10 games. His passing totals have been lower in the postseason, throwing for at least 300 yards only twice in seven games, but this is a good matchup for him.

In Week 12 against the Bucs, Mahomes threw for 462 yards and three touchdowns. He’s going to eclipse 330 yards in the Super Bowl. Bang the Over (-120)

Patrick Mahomes passing TDs: UNDER 2.5 (+110)

It seems foolish to bet that Mahomes will finish with fewer than three touchdown passes against a team that he shredded earlier this season. However, he only had three-plus touchdown passes in seven of his 17 games played this season.

I like the value that comes with betting the Under here at +110 because, although Mahomes will put up big yardage numbers, he could have touchdowns poached by the Chiefs’ running game … or he could rush one in himself.

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Patrick Mahomes interceptions: OVER 0.5 (+145)

Mahomes only has two career interceptions in the postseason, both of which were in last year’s Super Bowl. His interception rate the last two seasons was 1.0%, leading the NFL in 2020. But the Buccaneers’ cornerbacks have good hands and Mahomes could make a mistake or two in this one. It’s just a matter of the Bucs capitalizing on those errors.

Take the Over because the Bucs’ defense will be aggressive and, after all, no one is perfect – not even Mahomes.

Also see:

Patrick Mahomes longest completion: OVER 39.5 (-115)

The Chiefs are as good as any team at creating big plays. Since November, Mahomes has seven passes that went for at least 39 yards. The 39.5 projection is a big number, but never underestimate the speed and explosiveness of WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce and WR Mecole Hardman.

Bet the Over. The Bucs will be good for one busted coverage in this one.

Patrick Mahomes rushing yards: OVER 19.5 (-105)

In nine of his 17 games played this season, Mahomes rushed for at least 20 yards. He’s usually a solid bet to have at least one run of 10-plus yards and with the way the Bucs rush the passer, he’ll be forced out of the pocket often.

When he does escape the pressure, he’ll use his legs to create plays on the ground. The turf toe didn’t seem to bother him against the Bills, even though he only rushed for 5 yards, but he’ll go Over 20 yards rushing.

Want action on NFL bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Also see:

Patrick Mahomes, Sammy Watkins provide injury updates (Chiefs Wire)
Admiration between Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady apparent (Chiefs Wire)

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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes prop bets in 2020 Super Bowl

Analyzing Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes 2020 Super Bowl prop bets, with recommendations on how to bet on them

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The 2020 Super Bowl has more than enough prop bets to give everyone something they might be interested in getting some action on. Today, I’m focusing on three Super Bowl prop bets surrounding passing statistics for Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes:

Passing yards
Passing attempts
Will he throw an interception?

The expectations surrounding the Chiefs passing offense is always blown out of proportion because they are capable of such huge numbers.

Mahomes passing yards Super Bowl prop bet

This helps explain why Mahomes Over/Under, per BetMGM Sportsbook, for passing yards in the 2020 Super Bowl is 295½ yards (-125 for the Over, 100 for the Under).

In four career playoff games over the past two seasons, Mahomes has never thrown for less than 278 yards and three of them were games where the Chiefs called off the dogs in the fourth quarter once they built a double-digit lead and turned to the run game to kill off game clock.

His playoff passing yardage totals are tantalizing (278, 294, 295 and 321). Only one of the games has hit the over for what his Super Bowl number is, but a case can be made that, with the exception of his loss to the New England Patriots last year, Mahomes could have easily gone over in three of those games.

During the regular season, Mahomes threw for at least 296 yards in seven of the 13 games he played in full. From Week 11 on, however, he topped that number just once.

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The key to his number is the style of defense the San Francisco 49ers play.

They like to play man-to-man press coverage and they’re 15-3, so they have no complaints. The 49ers were the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL during the regular season, allowing 61.3% completions, 169.2 passing YPG and 23 touchdowns. San Francisco doesn’t want to get in a back-and-forth battle with an elite passing offense, but they’re not going to change what they do in the Super Bowl.

The oddsmakers want you to bet the Under – that’s why the return price is much better. That’s reason enough to think Mahomes will be throwing early and often and, if the Chiefs get a big lead, they likely won’t take their foot off the gas until they have to.

Take the Over.

Mahomes passing attempts Super Bowl prop bet

As it pertains to pass attempts, the Over/Under is 35½ (-129 for the Over, +105 for the Under).

Mahomes has thrown 35 passes in each of his first two postseason games – ironically completing 23 of them both times – but, the Chiefs will look to keep throwing. So far, the post-season blueprint against San Francisco tends to favor the pass. The 49ers have given up just 26 rushing attempts, 3.2 yards per carry and 41.5 rush YPG during the postseason; they gave up 112.6 rush YPG during the regular season, 17th in the league.

Take the Over.

Mahomes interceptions thrown Super Bowl prop bet

When you throw more than 35 passes, you will have a couple that are iffy.

As to whether or not Mahomes throws an interception (+105 for yes, -134 for no), the line suggests that he doesn’t. He will. Big stage nerves get the best of them at times. Mahomes threw just 5 interceptions all season and hasn’t been picked off during the playoffs. The 49ers have registered three interceptions during the postseason; they were tied for 17th in the league with 12 during the regular season.

Take yes (+105) at plus money.

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