While the Dallas Cowboys are preoccupied with their own monumental test in taking on the 9-1 New England Patriots on the road, their playoff interests will still be impacted by games which do not involve them.
Regardless of how much a win Sunday would make a statement towards Dallas’ legitimacy as Super Bowl contenders, the game against an AFC foe matters the least of all of their 16 contests. It’s not non-important, just not as important as games against other NFC teams, for various tiebreaker scenarios.
It’s a big week for NFL matchups, as the schedule moves into the last one-third of the slate and the league always tries to backend things so that interesting games litter the fan’s television. Week 12 offers some great matchups from beginning to end.
Early Games
Carolina Panthers (5-5) @ New Orleans Saints (8-2)
With six games left on the schedule, the Cowboys would need to have the Saints lose three more games than them in order to pass New Orleans in the race for home-field advantage. At what point does that become realistic and Dallas’ focus on help need to focus on a potential wild-card chase?
Not this week.
The Saints aren’t likely to be caught, and in the end revisionists will look back on games and say, “the other result would have been more beneficial,” but still, there’s a chance Lloyd Christmas.
Go Panthers.
Seattle Seahawks (8-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
This isn’t a difficult call, as the Cowboys quest for a sixth Lombardi really needs to have at least one home game on their playoff manifesto and that requires winning the NFC East.
The Eagles schedule turns ridiculously easy after this game, with the Cowboys rematch (Dallas won the first game, 37-10) the only remaining game against a team that has a winning record. Facing the Giants twice, Miami and Washington sure seems like a minimum 9-win campaign from here. So even with the Seahawks being a huge threat to any outside chance at home-field advantage, Dallas needs the Eagles to fall and fall hard here.
Go Hawks.
Night Game
Green Bay Packers (8-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (9-1)
In the best matchup of the week, two teams battling for home field advantage square off under the lights. Dallas doesn’t play San Francisco this year, and they have already lost their head-to-head matchup with Aaron Rodgers’ Packers.
There’s plenty of evidence that a team is way better off hosting one of the two divisional round games following a playoff bye. Dallas doesn’t necessarily need to get the top seed in the NFC, but they would greatly benefit from the No. 2 seed. The 49ers running away to hide, with a first-time playoff QB in Jimmy Garropolo, is probably the best-case scenario for a potential NFC Championship game.
On the flip side, the Cowboys could end up with the same record as the 49ers and win a tiebreaker (same with the Seahawks), while they couldn’t do the same with the Packers or the Saints.
Go 49ers.
Cowboys Difficult Path to a Bye
So here’s our preferred scenario to Dallas making it to the NFC’s second seed, a week off and a home divisional round game. We used the ESPN Playoff Machine to sort it all out.
Week 12
Dallas over New England
Seattle over Philly
Green Bay over San Francisco
Carolina over New Orleans
Week 13
Dallas over Buffalo
Atlanta over New Orleans
Minnesota over Seattle
Green Bay over New York
Week 14
Dallas over Chicago
Los Angeles Rams over Seattle
San Francisco over New Orleans
Week 15
Dallas over Los Angeles Rams
Other results can be either direction in this scenario
Week 16
Dallas over Philly
Los Angeles Rams over San Francisco
Week 17
Dallas over Washington
Seattle over San Francisco
There are of course a myriad of other scenarios which could result in Dallas earning a bye, even as the No. 1 seed, but this path offers the least resistance and has just a few games that would be considered longshot updates.
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