The Atlanta Falcons (3-9) host the Carolina Panthers (5-7) Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in a rematch of the Week 11 meeting which the Falcons won 29-3 as visitors. The Week 14 tilt kicks off at 1 p.m. ET. We analyze the Panthers-Falcons odds and sports betting lines, while providing NFL betting tips and picks for this matchup.

Panthers at Falcons: Week 14 preview, betting trends and notes

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• The Falcons took a 26-18 loss at home against the New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving.
• The Panthers have lost four in a row, with only one of those games played within eight points. They fired head coach Ron Rivera earlier this week and replaced him with Perry Fewell.
• The Falcons are 1-19 when scoring fewer than 22 points since the start of the 2016 season. They’re averaging 21.7 points per game this year while the Panthers give up 26.7 PPG.
• Atlanta allows a league-high 408.5 yards from scrimmage per game when at home.
• The Panthers are 14-0 when not committing any turnovers since the start of 2016. They have a minus-2 turnover differential this year (22 giveaways) while the Falcons are minus-11 (21 giveaways).

Panthers at Falcons: Key injuries

Panthers TE Greg Olsen (concussion) remains in the concussion protocol.

Falcons WRs Julio Jones (shoulder) and Calvin Ridley (toe) were limited in practice Wednesday. TE Austin Hooper (knee) was also limited.

Panthers at Falcons: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:50 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Falcons 30, Panthers 23

Moneyline (?)

The FALCONS (-162) are the play at home after their Week 11 domination of the Panthers and QB Kyle Allen. Jones should return after sitting out Thanksgiving and the return of Hooper would be an added boost.

The Falcons have won four straight and seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Falcons to win outright returns a profit of $6.17.

Against the Spread (?)

After winning by 26 in the season’s first meeting, the FALCONS are laying a conservative -2.5 points with -129 odds. Each of their last seven head-to-head victories was decided by more than a field goal.

Atlanta is 4-8 against the spread while Carolina is 6-6, but the Falcons fall an average of just 2.4 points shy of the cover. The Panthers fall an average of 3.3 points short.

Over/Under (?)

Take the OVER 48.5 (+105). The Panthers are 8-4 against the projections and top the number by an average of 4.4 PPG. The Falcons are 4-8 and fall 1.3 points shy of the line on average, but the probable returns of Jones and Hooper will propel this over the number.

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Esten’s NFL betting record: 34-40

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