The San Diego Padres (33-19, 2nd in NL West) host the Seattle Mariners (22-29, 3rd in AL West) Saturday night at Petco Park. First pitch is at 9:10 p.m. ET in the middle game of a three-game set whereby the Mariners are serving as the official home team (batting last). Below, we analyze the Padres-Mariners MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Padres vs. Mariners: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Mike Clevinger vs. LHP Justus Sheffield
Clevinger has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through seven starts with the Padres (3) and Cleveland Indians (4). He is coming of his best start with the Friars, as he went 7 innings in a win over the San Francisco Giants with 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 SO.
- Clevinger isn’t pounding the strike zone the way he did in compiling a 2.71 ERA a year ago. The right-hander has run into more bats with his swinging-strike rate at 13%, down from 15.7%.
Sheffield owns a 4.06 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 8 starts. The 24-year-old southpaw has given the Mariners good length, going 6-plus innings in five of his last six starts.
- Doesn’t miss a lot of bats (8.6% swinging strikes) and relies on keeping a lid on hard contact. Recent efforts have been a mixed bag with regard to the latter.
- Strength-of-schedule for a pitcher often gets overlooked. In West division rota play, Sheffield has avoided starts at Coors Field and against the top three hitting teams (Los Angeles Dodgers, Padres, Giants).
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Padres vs. Mariners: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Padres
- 1B Eric Hosmer (finger) out
- RP Matt Strahm (knee) out
- RP Kirby Yates (elbow) out
Mariners
- OF Mitch Haniger (hernia) out
- C Tom Murphy (foot) out
- 2B Sam Haggerty (forearm) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Padres vs. Mariners: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
Money line (ML)
The Mariners (+165) are out over their skis and a bit too far with their .431 win percentage, but certainly the Padres (-189) have taken on a role as a public team. There isn’t enough value to be added with pitching assessments that seem to be off-kilter on either side. Sometimes – often – the house and the public combine to make a rock-solid line that can’t be shaded either way.
Such is the case on the Saturday action. The wisest course of action is to PASS and move one.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
A layoff is advisable here as well, although if the SEATTLE +1.5 (-106) line were to tilt into +100 range, that’s the lean. The San Diego bullpen is dinged up, and the widest margin for overrating a facet of this matchup is in the Clevinger department.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under has traction in the O/U trends on both sides, and that includes Friday’s 6-1 Padres win fitting under the total. A pitcher’s breeze is expected at Pecto and the UNDER 8 (-110) is a strong play.
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