The Green Bay Packers meet the New Orleans Saints Sunday in their regular-season openers at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. The NFL relocated this game due to the effects of Hurricane Ida in New Orleans. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Packers at Saints odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Green Bay looks to take one more step after losing last season’s NFC Conference Championship Game to the eventual Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers gave cheeseheads a scare by requesting a trade this offseason. But cooler heads prevailed and Rodgers hopes to lead the Packers to the Super Bowl for the second time in his career.
New Orleans returns most of its NFC South first-place roster from last season sans likely future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees, who retired in the offseason. The Saints won a playoff game NFC Wild Card Weekend vs. the Chicago Bears before getting upset at home in the Divisional Round by the Buccaneers.
The Packers beat the Saints in New Orleans 37-30 in Week 3 last season as 3.5-point road underdogs with this game soaring over the total of 52.
Also see: 2021 team win totals, playoff lines and Super Bowl 56 odds
Packers vs. Saints odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Packers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Saints +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
- Against the spread (ATS): Packers -3.5 (-115) | Saints +3.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Packers vs. Saints key injuries
Packers
- DL Tyler Lancaster (back) limited practice
- S Vernon Scott (hamstring) did not practice
- OLB Za’Darius Smith (back) limited practice
Saints
- CB Ken Crawley (hamstring) did not practice
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Packers vs. Saints odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Saints 27, Packers 21
Money line
LEAN to the SAINTS (+160) for a tiny wager because I like New Orleans plus the points and see some value in the underdog’s money line in this spot.
Time will tell if first-year Saints QB Jameis Winston is a long-term successor to Brees, but he’s in good shape behind this offensive line and with head coach Sean Payton working the controls of the offense.
Combine Payton’s offense with New Orleans’ sneaky elite defense and the SAINTS (+160) are live underdogs against any team.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the SAINTS +3.5 (-107) heavier than or instead of New Orleans’ money line because this game is extremely mispriced and we are seeing “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market.
New Orleans was favored 3.5 points against Green Bay last season. There isn’t a 7-point drop-off from a Brees-led Saints to Winston under center.
I’m more worried about how missing LT David Bakhtiari (on the PUP list) and the offseason departures of former C Corey Linsley and RT Bryan Bulaga affect Green Bay’s offense.
This game opened with Green Bay laying 3 points and moved up to 4.5 points once the relocation news broke.
Now, it’s down to the Packers -3.5 (-115) despite roughly 85% of the action being on Green Bay according to Pregame.com. This puzzling line movement suggests oddsmakers are cool with taking more bets on the Packers.
Over/Under
PASS with slight lean to the Under 49.5 (-110) because I don’t have much on the Packers-Saints total and much prefer the New Orleans’ sides.
However, the Saints using their offensive line to push the Packers around and keep the chains moving combined with New Orleans’ top-notch defensive line facing a banged-up Green Bay offensive line is why I lean to the Under.
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