The Indiana Pacers (3-6) travel to the “Rose City” Friday to play the Portland Trail Blazers (3-5) at the Moda Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Trail Blazers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Indiana has won and covered in back-to-back games over the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks following a four-game losing skid Oct. 25-30. The Pacers rank fifth in effective field goal shooting (eFG%) and have played the toughest strength of schedule thus far. Indiana is 4-5 ATS and 4-5 (O/U).
Portland returns home after losing three straight on the road at the Charlotte Hornets, Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Trail Blazers have the third-worst defensive eFG% but are fourth in rebounding rate. Portland is 3-5 ATS and 3-5 O/U.
These teams split last year’s season series 1-1 with the road teams winning by double digits in both meetings.
Pacers at Trail Blazers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pacers +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Trail Blazers -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pacers +5.5 (-120) | Trail Blazers -5.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Pacers at Trail Blazers key injuries
Pacers
- SG Jeremy Lamb (ankle) questionable
- SF T.J. Warren (foot) out
Trail Blazers
- None
Pacers at Trail Blazers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Pacers 117, Trail Blazers 108
Money line
Let’s fade the public and “sprinkle” on the PACERS (+170). Both teams have a first-year head coach, but Indiana’s Rick Carlisle has been to multiple NBA Finals and won a title whereas Portland’s Chauncey Billups is in his first season.
Indiana’s head coaching edge is proven when you compare the Pacers’ halfcourt offense to the Trail Blazers’.
ShotQuality.com says Indiana attempts the ninth-most field goals from halfcourt offense and Portland attempts the fourth-most. However, the Trail Blazers have the third-worst defensive efficiency vs. halfcourt shot types.
Furthermore, Indiana attempts the seventh-most field goals off screens and 11th-most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, but Portland’s defense has the fourth-worst efficiency vs. shots off screens and third-worst efficiency vs. catch-and-shoot 3-pointers.
Finally, according to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the cash wagered is on Portland’s money line and, typically, the contrarian mindset is profitable in sports betting.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the PACERS +5.5 (-120) heavier than or instead of their money line. A vast majority of the market is betting the Trail Blazers laying the points as well.
Moreover, the road team won and covered both meetings last season and Indiana’s victory over the Trail Blazers was more analogous to this game than Portland’s vs. the Pacers.
What I mean by that is Indiana was missing both frontcourt starters in its 133-112 loss to Portland at home. So the Pacers having forward Domantas Sabonis and big Myles Turner back in the starting 5 for this game will make a huge difference to Indiana’s efficiency on both ends of the floor.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 222.5 (-115) because I envision Indiana’s offense lighting up Portland’s awful defense and there are reasons to be confident in Trail Blazers’ offense in this contest.
That said, this is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game in the betting market with a majority of the cash being on the Under and the public rolling with the Over. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money in sports betting so I’ll avoid betting on my Over “lean” because my handicap on the total isn’t sharp.
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