Pacers Nuggets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets Team odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Indiana Pacers (23-23) face the Denver Nuggets (32-13) at Ball Arena Friday. Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Pacers vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

We have 2 teams moving in opposite directions. The Nuggets are on an 8-game winning streak while the Pacers have lost 5 in a row. C Nikola Jokic is the MVP favorite while Indiana’s star point guard Tyrese Haliburton has been injured during the Pacer’s struggles.

The Pacers hope to move above .500 while the Nuggets intend on keeping their foot on the gas with All-Star weekend inching closer. Denver won 122-119 at Indiana on Nov. 9.

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Pacers at Nuggets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pacers +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Nuggets -650 (bet $650 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Pacers +11.5 (-115) | Nuggets -11.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 239.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Pacers at Nuggets key injuries

Pacers

G Tyrese Haliburton (knee) out

Nuggets

G Collin Gillespie (leg) out
F Jeff Green (finger) questionable
G Jamal Murray (foot) probable
F Peyton Watson (ab) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Pacers at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 118, Pacers 109

Moneyline

I don’t know anyone who genuinely thinks Indiana can pull this off. Certainly Denver is ripe for a loss, but I will not be suggesting you bet the Pacers. With the Nuggets a very chalky bet I will AVOID.

An alternative would be to bet the Nuggets 1st-quarter spread. The Pacers are 30th in 1st-quarter points and 29th in opponent points. The Nuggets are the opposite, ranking 2nd in 1st-quarter defense and are the best in 1st-quarter scoring.

Against the spread

The Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when playing on a single day of rest.

The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against an opponent with a road percentage of less than .400.

LEAN PACERS +11.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The Nuggets are begging us to bet the Under.

The Under has hit in 5 of the Nugget’s last 6 games. And the Under is 6-1 in Nuggets previous 7 when their opponent scores over 100 points in their last game.

BET UNDER 240.5 (-110).

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Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Denver Nuggets (6-4) host the Indiana Pacers (4-7) Wednesday at Ball Arena for a 9 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Indiana has won three of its past four games (4-0 ATS) with the latest being a 94-91 win at the Sacramento Kings Sunday. The Pacers are 6-5 ATS and 4-7 O/U with the 17th-ranked net rating (-0.6).

Denver has won back-to-back games over the Houston Rockets and Miami Heat after losing a two-game showing at the Memphis Grizzlies Nov. 1-3. The Nuggets are 4-6 ATS and 2-8 O/U with the eighth-best net rating (2.9).

The Nuggets hammered the Pacers by double digits in both regular-season meetings last year. However, Denver’s three leading scorers from those games (Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray) will not be in its lineup Wednesday.

Pacers at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

Money line: Pacers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Nuggets +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread (ATS): Pacers -3.5 (-107) | Nuggets +3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 204.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Pacers at Nuggets key injuries

Pacers

PG Malcolm Brogdon (illness) probable
SF T.J. Warren (foot) out

Nuggets

PG Monte Morris (knee) probable
C Nikola Jokic (suspension) out
PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

Pacers at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Pacers 111, Nuggets 99

Money line

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Pacers (-155) because it’s on the fringe of my price range but I’m confident enough in Indiana here to lay the points.

The fact of the matter is the Pacers are better than their record indicates. For instance, according to ShotQuality.com, Indiana should have a 6-5 overall record based on its adjusted shot quality differential.

Also, the Pacers have the third-worst win differential based on their net efficiency, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. Furthermore, Indiana has the fourth-best effective field goal shooting (eFG%). The Pacers are the only team in the top-12 of eFG% that has a losing record.

Against the spread

BET the PACERS -3.5 (-107) for 1 unit even though it’s an ultra-square play. A majority of the bets are on Indiana but most of the money is on Denver (according to Pregame.com). So, presumably, the “wiseguys” like the Nuggets in this spot.

Theoretically, all of Denver’s injuries are accurately accounted for in the line. But, I just don’t buy that. Jokic leads the NBA in Win Shares per 48, Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), offensive box plus/minus and defensive box plus/minus.

Moreover, Indiana has no reason to look past Denver in this spot. The Pacers are 12th right now in the East and have found their groove in the last four games.

Maybe it’s square, but I’m fading the team missing the NBA’s MVP and backing a PACERS -3.5 (-107) that should have more wins.

Over/Under

PASS because Jokic is the focal point of Denver’s scheme on both ends of the floor. I cannot get a grasp on if the Nuggets’ offense or defense will be more affected by Jokic’s absence.

Furthermore, while the Under feels more likely, we’d be getting the worst of the number. The Pacers-Nuggets total opened at 213.5 but has plummeted when Jokic’s one-game suspension was announced.

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