The ultimate dream for George Kliavkoff in Pac-12 media rights negotiations

If the #Pac12 doesn’t have the framework of a media rights deal by July 21, it might mean it is holding out for one scenario.

In life, it is generally unwise to put all of one’s eggs in a single basket and hope for the perfect scenario. Yet, there are times when people and groups feel they have to bet big. They have to go for it. They have to seek the ideal outcome so that they never live with the regret that they failed to pursue maximum results. As a gambler might say, why cash out midway through a bet when you can win the whole thing?

Sometimes, people gamble. The Pac-12 might feel it has to gamble on an ideal outcome in its media rights negotiations instead of playing it safe.

With Pac-12 media day approaching on Friday, July 21, this tension between ensuring the conference’s survival (protection) and gambling on a home-run scenario (more risk and more reward) is coming into sharper focus.

At his Substack, Pac-12 columnist John Canzano pointed to a possible (but not necessarily likely) scenario the conference might be holding out for:

“Iger’s comments about ESPN taking an equity partner are interesting. Apple, Amazon and Google have piles of cash and are already in the streaming business. That kind of strategic partnership could benefit ESPN, the Pac-12 and all of the college sports world,” Canzano wrote in response to a reader question.

In a separate response to another question, Canzano wrote this:

“A marriage between Apple and ESPN with the Pac-12 serving as ‘best man’ would be worth the wait. But that may not be what happens, exactly. The delay and shift in the TV industry may simply result in the market settling, finding direction and the Pac-12 getting a deal that gives it ample revenue and distribution.”

Imagine a situation in which Apple, Amazon or Google become an equity partner with ESPN as ESPN moves more fully into the streaming space. That marriage happens, and then the Pac-12 strikes a very lucrative deal.

If there’s one scenario in which waiting until after Pac-12 media day to announce a media rights deal makes any sense at all, that’s it. That’s the scenario.

But: Does the Pac-12 want to gamble like that and put all its eggs in one basket? As Clint Eastwood said, “Do you feel lucky?”

The Pac-12 doesn’t hold all the cards. Balancing risk and reward is not a clear-cut call.

Pac-12 media day is July 21. We have you covered here at Trojans Wire. Stay with us for extensive coverage of all the news which flows from Las Vegas.

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Pac-12 columnist evaluates the ACC’s new TV deal with The CW Network

The #Pac12 has suffered from woefully insufficient exposure. The #ACC noticeably increased its exposure with its CW deal.

Fans and talk-radio hosts know that the Pac-12 has been second-rate and minor-league in terms of giving its games and its overall product the biggest possible platform.

The Pac-12 Network did not work out for revenue sports. It was and is great for the Olympic sports, but that’s never the primary reason for a conference network’s existence. It’s not what a conference commissioner is primarily required to achieve on the job.

The DirecTV mess removed Pac-12 Network from a lot of American households. The conference’s level of national visibility has suffered to a considerable extent. Larry Scott made the Pac-12 a laughingstock in the world of college sports.

Because of this reality, George Kliavkoff has to balance two competing needs with his media rights deal. He does need to get a competitive price point and offer significant revenue to member schools. That’s one part of the equation. However, he also needs to improve the exposure of the conference.

Given that the Pac-12 is likely to pursue a digital deal with Apple or Amazon — a foray into streaming to boost revenue but not necessarily mainstream exposure — the conference will also need an arrangement which solves the exposure problem which has dogged the Pac-12 for a long time.

This is where the ACC’s recent TV deal with The CW Network comes into the picture. The ACC got a small amount of revenue from the deal, but it will get a noticeable boost in exposure. That was the play. The move was more about the exposure side than the revenue side.

Pac-12 columnist John Canzano, at his Substack, commented on the ACC-CW deal:

“It was a distribution play by the ACC. It solved an ongoing visibility problem for that conference and will sprinkle a little revenue over the members,” Canzano wrote. “Everyone in America can get the CW. The network will broadcast 50 football and basketball games a year until 2026-27. Next season, the CW will air 13 football games, 28 men’s basketball games, and nine women’s basketball games. It will sweeten the revenue pot a little, but it was more of an exposure move.

“The dirty secret? We all know that the Pac-12 would have been mocked for doing the exact same deal. I think the ACC’s deal with CW probably served to underscore that point, too.”

The Pac-12 can’t just solve one part of its problems. The conference has to solve both the revenue and exposure problems in its media rights deal.

Pac-12 media day is Friday, July 21. Follow us for extensive coverage.

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ESPN-Disney job cuts might be affecting speed of Pac-12 media rights talks

#Pac12 insiders do think the turmoil and change inside ESPN might be affecting the pace of media rights negotiations.

John Canzano is noticing the ESPN-Disney job cuts and the various attempts at cost-cutting going on within ESPN’s walls in Bristol, Connecticut. ESPN cut loose a lot of prime talent in a major reorganization. The company, according to most industry experts, is making the calculation that for a large percentage of its broadcasts and programming, fans care less about who is behind the microphone or camera. They care more about being able to watch games and access the inventory ESPN has.

Canzano is absorbing all of this and asking questions about the Pac-12’s media rights explorations. Are the changes at ESPN and Disney affecting the speed of the media rights negotiations?

Canzano wrote and reported the following at his Substack:

“(Disney CEO Bob) Iger spoke on a number of topics in a wide-ranging conversation on CNBC. The CEO said he now has ‘a good idea’ when ESPN will transition to a direct-to-consumer business but declined to say when.

“I heard that interview and wondered how the shifting sands in the TV industry might dovetail with the Pac-12 Conference’s ongoing media-rights negotiation. Is it fair to say that the pivot has affected the pace of the Pac-12’s negotiation? Or is that a reach?

“One member of the conference’s CEO Group told me on Thursday: ‘Not a reach. Disney and others going through serious shifts in last months.’”

So there you have it. That’s a valid reason for the Pac-12 to move at a slower pace than a lot of fans had hoped it would. Pac-12 media day is next Friday, July 21, in Las Vegas.

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Pac-12 source: delay in media rights deal ‘will be worth the wait’

#Pac12 insiders continue to express great confidence that the media rights deal will have a very good price point. We’ll see.

We are now one week from Pac-12 media day on Friday, July 21. What, if anything, will emerge on that day? Will we have a new media rights deal in the Pac-12? The deal might not be completely finalized, but the framework might be disclosed to the extent that schools (and the public) will gain crucial information. They might be able to (finally) know how much revenue the conference will gain and then distribute to its 10 members (sans USC and UCLA).

While we wait for media day and the possible revelation of a media rights deal, Pac-12 insiders continue to be very, very confident about the ultimate outcome of the process.

John Canzano, at his Substack, caught up with one member of the Pac-12 CEO Group:

“Earlier this year, Disney announced it would cut more than $3 billion in content costs and announced plans for 7,000 layoffs. Those content cuts, interestingly, do not impact live-sports content.

“Does the industry shift work to the Pac-12’s advantage?

“Is it good/bad for the Pac-12 to hear the CEO of Disney talking about selling equity in ESPN?

“The member of the Pac-12 CEO Group I spoke with on Thursday said it was ‘eventually good.’ That the shift at Disney and other places definitely caused a short-term delay, ‘but will be worth the wait.’”

If all of this confidence is not matched by a deal which hits a satisfactory price point, the public relations blowback could be severe. We will see if this backroom, behind-the-scenes confidence is justified.

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After the laughter subsides, here’s the truth: CW deal is good for the ACC

Being on a rinky-dink network sounds bad, until you realize The CW is available on TV in every American household. #ACC

If you pay attention to the sports television industry, some stories are worth digging into. Going below the surface turns up revelations you might not initially expect.

You might be aware, for instance, that with the financial troubles of Diamond Sports Group and its Bally Sports properties, some professional sports teams are pursuing new television arrangements with local TV stations. The Phoenix Suns (I live in Phoenix and am close to this story) sought an arrangement with a local TV station. The deal has been held up in the courts, but it is going to go through eventually in some form. Going from a dedicated sports network to a local television station might seem like a demotion on the surface, if viewed through the prism that a sports network’s on-air talent provide a more professional and in-depth presentation than a local station.

However, there’s one very obvious, very big advantage of the move to a local TV station (in Phoenix, the station is a CBS affiliate with another independent affiliate attached).

Visibility, flowing from much wider distribution and access.

If you have a television in Phoenix, you can access the local TV station. You don’t have to pay for it. This is over-the-air TV, the exact opposite of premium streaming or premium cable. Instead of going to high-end outlets which are more exclusive and cost more, the Suns and other teams are going to over-the-air television anyone can watch. That’s actually good. The whole city will be able to watch the Suns.

Something similar is happening in the Atlantic Coast Conference, which recently struck a deal with The CW Network. The channel which has lots of syndicated reruns will start carrying live ACC football and basketball games. It might seem like a downgrade for the ACC’s TV package. It might seem minor-league, small-fry, not ready for prime time. Yet, given that a lot of ACC fans have had problem finding their favorite team’s games in recent years — lots of ACC fans have been frustrated by the inability to watch their teams on basic cable — the move to The CW contains one obvious and enormous advantage.

From the ACC press release on its deal with The CW:

“The CW Network, LLC is one of America’s major broadcast networks and reaches 100% of US television households.”

Boom. You can’t do any better in terms of access than 100 percent. Everyone in the ACC footprint can now find ACC sports on an over-the-air channel, an outlet people don’t have to pay extra for. They don’t have to buy a streaming subscription to Paramount, or Peacock, or any of that stuff.

These deals with low-end outlets feel like minor-league ventures until you realize that everyone can find the game on The CW.

Now translate all of this to the Pac-12. People will laugh at the Pac-12 if it strikes a deal with The CW or Ion Television or one of these other hubs for syndicated reruns of NCIS or Law and Order. However, for a Pac-12 fan base which has been driven insane by the Pac-12 Network and the general inability to watch a significant portion of Pac-12 games over the years, having games on a free, over-the-air network actually sounds really, really good.

Don’t be surprised if the new Pac-12 media rights deal contains an arrangement with one of these over-the-air networks. Don’t laugh at the deal, either — especially if it fetches a competitive price point.

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A conference got a TV deal from the CW … and it’s not the Pac-12

Remember all the jokes about the #Pac12 being on Ion Television? Guess what? The #ACC struck a CW deal.

The constant intrigue and uncertainty surrounding the Pac-12 and its media rights deal has led us down several interesting and unconventional paths.

There was an erroneous report earlier this year that the Pac-12 had agreed to a deal with Ion Television, a widely-available over-the-air channel which airs syndicated reruns of older television shows. The guffawing and chuckling from Big 12 fans and other college sports fans in the wake of that report (though it didn’t turn out to be true) were as predictable as the sun rising in the east. The optics of a Power Five conference putting its football games on a TV network which is a dumping ground for old shows are not great. It’s certainly not ESPN or Turner or Fox.

Yet, guess what? Even though the Pac-12 has not actually finalized a deal with Ion or one of these other syndication-magnet over-the-air networks, the Atlantic Coast Conference has done precisely that. The ACC announced a new football and basketball deal with The CW, another TV outlet which — much like Ion — runs a lot of syndicated content and would never be confused with a “premium” or “Cadillac” television outlet.

All of this raises the question: Will the Pac-12 actually seal an agreement with Ion Television after all? It didn’t happen earlier, but maybe it still will in the near future. Stay tuned.

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Reports suggest Pac-12 won’t invite San Diego State before July 21 (if at all)

Reporting from Pac-12 insiders seems to indicate the conference won’t invite the #Aztecs before media day on Friday, July 21.

If you are looking for any signs of what the Pac-12 might do, and when it might do anything, we are getting some indications.

Pac-12 reporter and columnist John Canzano, at his Substack, gathered some comments from sources who are close to the Pac-12’s media rights and expension discussions.

“How are they feeling about the media deal?

“Said one member of the Pac-12 CEO Group: ‘All good, but our timing is not being driven by media narratives or others’ deadlines.’

“The second part of that quote — ‘others’ deadlines’ — feels aimed the San Diego State conundrum. The Mountain West Conference presidents are meeting on Monday to discuss the Aztecs’ membership status.”

So there you have it. If the Pac-12 felt the need to get in front of this story, it would try to make an invitation to San Diego State by Monday or maybe Tuesday, but no one seems to be in any hurry. If that’s the case, it’s probable — though not certain — that the Pac-12 doesn’t feel the need to announce a media rights deal anytime before Pac-12 media day on Friday, July 21.

None of this is wrong or misguided; it is merely a revelation of the conference’s approach. It doesn’t think it will be beneficial to announce a deal before media day and then add details on media day. July 21 might therefore be the day when the conference shares its big news with the world (if it is ready, which is no guarantee at all).

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If Pac-12 has a media rights deal before July 21, how should it announce it?

We don’t know if the #Pac12 will have a deal before July 21, but if it happens, there’s something it should consider.

The Pac-12 might not have a finalized — or even close to finalized — media rights deal by July 21. That would hurt the conference. Given the Pac-12’s many stumbles and organizational problems in recent years, no one would be too surprised if the conference failed to make a splash by July 21, which is Pac-12 media day. We certainly have to allow for the possibility that the Pac-12 will swing and miss. It has been known to happen.

However, if the Pac-12 secures a media rights deal or at least has 90-95 percent of the framework in place, such that it can present a general dollar range and can confidently speak about San Diego State and SMU as new members, that would be enough to stabilize the conference.

If we work within this specific hypothetical — having a deal or most of a deal in place before July 21 — how should the Pac-12 announce the deal?

This is basically a two-lane answer, but it could be a three-lane answer if you want to be especially precise.

The two general paths the Pac-12 could take in announcing the deal: One, announce it on media day. George Kliavkoff’s address to the media and the public could serve as the vehicle through which all of this becomes known for the first time.

Two, the Pac-12 could leak details of the deal on July 18 or 19 to set up a bigger July 21 announcement.

If the Pac-12 chooses path No. 2, it could share leaked details on multiple days before July 21, not just one day. In this sense, path No. 2 could actually contain additional paths: not just a one-day reveal before July 21, but a collection of smaller revelations.

Maybe the Pac-12 will leak a TV deal on July 18, a digital deal on July 19, and a basketball deal on July 20, before filling in the blanks and offering an expansion announcement on July 21.

Will any of these options come into play, though? The Pac-12 has to actually get that deal done (or very close to done) first.

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The central keys to the Pac-12’s media rights endgame

The #Pac12 doesn’t have to finalize every last detail by July 21, but it does need a framework of a deal it can tout to the public.

We won’t sit here and tell you it doesn’t matter if the Pac-12 finalizes a media rights deal by July 21. It certainly would matter. Big 12 apologists or general college sports skeptics might roll their eyes at the claim that the Pac-12 doesn’t have to have a finalized deal by July 21. After all, we have been saying George Kliavkoff needs to be able to present a deal to the press and the world on July 21, which is Pac-12 media day.

We’re not walking back our stated claim that the Pac-12 needs a deal by July 21. However, there’s a nuance here which is worth noting: While the best-case scenario is that the Pac-12 does finalize its deal by July 21, the second-best scenario — and a reasonable if imperfect one — is that the Pac-12 doesn’t have a finalized deal but can present the framework of a deal to the public, with the details to be hammered out in subsequent weeks.

If George Kliavkoff doesn’t have an exact dollar figure for the rights deal, but he can provide a range of figures which has a highly competitive price point, that’s good enough.

The main thing: He can’t have nothing, or to be more precise, he can’t make general assurances or statements of confidence. He needs some meat on the bone.

Jon Wilner of The Wilner Hotline identifies the areas where Kliavkoff must provide specifics at Pac-12 media day:

“— The media rights contract. The annual valuation matters immensely, but so does the means of delivery. How many football games will be placed on a streaming platform and how many will be available on linear television?

“— The grant-of-rights agreement. There is no collective security without this document, which is signed by the schools and binds their media revenue to the conference. (The Pac-12 likely is targeting a medium-term agreement that covers five or six years.)

“— The decision on expansion. Should the conference add two members — SMU and San Diego State are the favorites — or move forward with 10?”

A 100-percent-complete agenda would be fantastic, but 90 to 95 percent would be fine. If it’s clear the conference is far removed from finishing these items of business, that would be a black eye and a huge failure for the Pac-12.

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People don’t like neutral-site college football games, but they exist for a reason

Many fans and pundits hate neutral-site CFB games, but they’re actually good for college football. We explain why.

The need to play more college football games on late-summer Sundays is something we dealt with in a separate article at Trojans Wire.

The Pac-12 is trying to get maximum dollars in its media rights deal. Getting more games on the Sundays before Week 1 of the NFL season could give networks some prime viewing windows and opportunities. This plays into a larger attempt to be ambitious throughout a season in terms of getting more visible slots for Pac-12 games, for the inventory the conference wants to make more accessible after the disastrous Pac-12 Network run.

When we consider the possibility of playing a lot more early-season college football games on (pre-NFL) Sundays and at other points in time through Labor Day weekend, we need to remember that early-season games can’t be played in the middle of the day in punishing, hot sunshine. If they are going to be on campus, as most college football fans and pundits want, they have to be at night, played in shadows with reduced heat and overall exposure to the elements.

Yet, it’s not as though the TV networks can just play games at night. They would certainly love to have games all day on a late-August Sunday and get some attractive standalone properties to showcase.

How can that be done, then? Not through those on-campus games.

More early-season games will be facilitated in and through the use of neutral sites. Why? Because those neutral sites — Atlanta, Arlington, Las Vegas, and others which are available to use — are domed-stadium sites.

Glendale, Arizona.

Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

The Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis.

SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

Houston.

Minneapolis.

Detroit.

If the Pac-12 wants to improve its media rights package, it would get SoFi and Glendale into the mix for more early-season neutral-site games in weather conditions which would be comfortable.

College football needs more of these games, not fewer … and there’s a lot of money to be made by doing so. Athletic departments shouldn’t turn this down.

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