Oregon vs. Washington: ‘Tale of the Tape’ for No. 5 Ducks vs. No. 3 Huskies

A breakdown of the numbers and specific matchups that will be important when the Oregon Ducks face the Washington Huskies this weekend.

Part one was so entertaining that it only makes sense we are getting a part two for what was one of the best games of the college football season.

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks and No. 3 Washington Huskies will meet for the second time this year, now down in Las Vegas for the Pac-12 Conference Championship game. The first time these two teams met back in October, Washington won, 36-33, as a game-tying field goal from Oregon sailed right with time expiring.

It was clear then that these two teams were evenly matched as the two best in the West. Now we get to see what they look like on a bigger stage.

So how do the numbers stack up when it comes to specific matchups and statistics? What can we draw from those numbers when they are laid out in front of us? That’s what the tape is for. Let’s find out with the Pac-12 Championship edition of the ‘Tale of the Tape.’

Column: Dan Lanning notches his biggest win, but the stakes only get higher from here on out

Oregon Ducks coach Dan Lanning notched the biggest win of his career on Friday vs. Oregon State, but the stakes only get higher from here.

When the clock hit zero on Friday night inside Autzen Stadium and both teams started to congregate at the middle of the field, the scoreboard in Eugene flashed “Vegas Bound” in bright yellow letters.

31-7, Oregon Ducks over Oregon State Beavers. Bo Nix and his teammates had just won arguably the biggest game of the season in emphatic fashion, never leaving the outcome in doubt. From an opening touchdown drive that drained nearly 9 minutes off of the clock, to a last-gasp 4th-down attempt from the Beavers that fell incomplete, the Ducks were in control of this one.

So while fans celebrated their first win over the in-state rivals since 2021, and relished the fact that their team clinched a rematch against the Washington Huskies, many opened up Delta apps to book a flight to Vegas.

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I thought about Dan Lanning. This was a huge win for the team, clinching a conference championship berth and keeping College Football Playoff hopes alive. In my opinion, it was a bigger win for Lanning, though. After the way that the 2022 season ended against Oregon State, and the narrative started to build that he couldn’t win the biggest games against his biggest rivals, the 37-year-old coach needed this victory on his resume.

I would argue that it was the biggest victory of his head coaching career. I’d also argue that they’re only going to get bigger from here on out.

In two years as the head coach of the Ducks, Lanning has won 21 games, and lost four. He’s now clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and pulled even in the series against the Beavers. On Friday, he has a chance to get his first win over the Washington Huskies, a result that would more-than-likely put his team in the College Football Playoff.

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Is obtaining that opportunity something to celebrate?

“It’s hard to celebrate in this profession when you’re always focused on what’s next,” Lanning said after the game. “I expected us to be here. I don’t really know what everybody else thought but I expected us to be in this position because I know what our team is capable of. And we still have some unfinished business.”

In a sport where celebration usually has a 24-hour rule, it wouldn’t surprise me if Lanning and the Ducks have already turned their focus toward that “unfinished business.” For the most part, this has been a dream season in Eugene. 11 of their wins have been emphatic and convincing. The lone loss is remembered more for what could have been than what was.

On October 14th up in Seattle, The Oregon Ducks had 541 total yards, to the Washington Huskies’ 415. They picked up 32 first downs to Washington’s 24, had more than twice as many rushing yards, and had fewer punts in the game. The difference? Oregon was 0-for-3 on fourth-down conversions and 1-for-2 on field goals.

I think it’s safe to say that they’d like another crack at that one.

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“Obviously that’s exactly how we wanted it because of the circumstances and because we did lose the first one,” quarterback Bo Nix said after the game.

With the win over Oregon State, the Ducks clinched the opportunity to avenge their only loss of the season. It will undoubtedly be the biggest game of the season, and the biggest game of Lanning’s head coaching career.

A win could bring bronze statues to Eugene, and send the Ducks to the final iteration of the four-team College Football Playoff. They also would have the ability to forever say that they won the final Pac-12 game ever played. It’s safe to say that the stakes are pretty high.

Of course, with a win, those stakes will only continue to get higher.

A CFP spot for the Ducks could bring games against Michigan, or Ohio State, or Alabama. It could even pit Lanning against Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs, the team with whom he won a national championship back in 2021.

Should any of those things come to fruition, we’ll be sitting here saying that each game is the biggest of Lanning’s career. At this point in the season, every win or loss is highlighted, emboldened, and underlined on a coach’s resume.

For the Ducks, that shouldn’t change anything. They’ve seen throughout this season that the process is working, and what they’re doing on the practice field is leading to success on the playing field. Dan Lanning has proved that he belongs on this stage. He’s proved that he can coach at a high level, beat his rivals, and get his team to a championship opportunity.

Now it’s time to prove whether or not he can beat the best of the best. With each passing week, the test gets harder, and the stakes get higher.

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Survival skills are going to matter in this Pac-12 football season

For USC and everyone else, winning on a day when few things go right will be essential in capturing the #Pac12 title.

Last week, Utah and Oregon did not play particularly well, but they still won road games in Texas against Big 12 opponents.

Utah rallied late to beat Baylor, while Oregon struggled but made key plays in the fourth quarter to fend off Texas Tech. The performances weren’t good, but the results were great. Both teams overcame a lot of mistakes and limitations to win.

USC will likely have to do that at least once if it expects to make the Pac-12 Championship Game and compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Recall the game at Oregon State last year? That was pure survival.

We wrote this about Caleb Williams after a game in which he generally did not play well:

“Caleb was at a D-plus or C-minus for the first 58 minutes of this game. However: A game-winning drive when everything was on the table is worth a full grade higher than the 60-minute body of work. Winning matters. Caleb Williams is a winner. He made the game-winning throw when his team needed it. We value winning at USC. Obviously, Williams needs to get a lot better and learn from this experience in Corvallis.”

Take note that Caleb has learned from that experience and grown as a quarterback. The Trojans will need that same growth point in 2023. When it occurs, we don’t know, but that kind of scenario — having a bad day but needing to fight through it — will probably emerge once. USC needs to be ready, much as Utah and Oregon were ready to fight this past weekend.

Survival skills matter in the Pac-12 forest.

Check out our Pac-12 football predictions roundtable for the 2023 season.

Pac-12 football title game predictions for 2023

Five #Pac12 writers gave their predicted matchups for the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas.

The Utah Utes have won back-to-back Pac-12 titles and are going for a three-peat. However, a number of teams stand in the way, with Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, and USC ready to cause problems.

The Pac-12 College Wire team put together a series of preictions, and one of them was for the Pac-12 title game this December in Las Vegas. Zachary Neel and Don Smalley of Ducks Wire, Matt Zemek and Matt Wadleigh of Trojans Wire, and Jack Carlough of Buffaloes Wire all gave their predictions.

Here is how each of them voted for the Pac-12 title game in what appears to be the final year of the conference.

College football needs to make one key adjustment in 12-team playoff era

In 2024, CFB will become very different in one key way. @FangsBites mentioned this on the @LastWordOnSport media podcast.

Trojans Wire joined the Last Word on Sports media podcast to talk about a lot of different sports media subjects, including some items which related to college football, the Pac-12, and the Big Ten. You should listen to the podcast because we think it’s a good discussion of a lot of sports media issues, including several which relate to college football.

One of the especially good points made in this podcast on the topic of college football came from Ken Fang of Awful Announcing. He made the specific point that when we get to the 12-team College Football Playoff in 2024, the conference championship games aren’t going to mean what they used to.

He’s absolutely right. This makes complete sense.

When 11-1 Alabama plays 12-0 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, both schools will be assured of a berth in the 12-team playoff. Alabama could lose a second game and still be completely fine at 11-2. Alabama was 10-2 this past season and would have easily gotten into a 12-team playoff had it existed.

Conference championship games will cease to be “play-in” games for the playoff. The top two teams in the SEC and Big Ten will almost always be safely in the 12-team field. This has big implications for how the sport of college football needs to adjust in the 12-team playoff era.

The sport has to do something to respond to this shifting dynamic. We’ll offer ideas in future posts.

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Alex Grinch gets roasted by fans and analysts after USC allows 47 to Utah — the heat is on for 2023

Alex Grinch knows he signed up for this — not the level of performance, but knowing that if standards weren’t met, he would face very close scrutiny at #USC.

Alex Grinch has been with Lincoln Riley for each of the past four seasons — three at Oklahoma, this one at USC. None of those four seasons have produced a national championship or even an appearance in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. This is what Riley and Grinch aspire to. They haven’t gotten over the hump yet.

While it’s true that this season was unlikely to deliver USC — and its coaches — a national title game appearance, it remains that getting overpowered and outworked in a conference championship game, with a playoff spot hanging in the balance, will sting for Alex Grinch.

What stings even more is that the same opponent gave Grinch and USC the same problems. Dalton Kincaid, Cam Rising, and the Utah offensive line dominated USC’s defense twice. The Trojans couldn’t tackle the Utes twice. The Men of Troy lost to the Utes twice.

It is understandable that USC fared poorly against Utah in Year 1 under the new coaching staff. The Trojans didn’t have the dudes they needed, and people in and around the program were aware of that.

However: The end product was still very bad against a chief Pac-12 contender. That won’t simply slide away and become ignored. It has to be dealt with.

People are upset, and they should be. It’s not as though Grinch — despite knowing he didn’t have a fully-stocked cupboard — should get a free pass. He should be cut some slack, but he should still be scrutinized. He’ll also be the first one to admit this.

Let’s look at that scrutiny from fans and analysts after the 47-24 loss to Utah.

Alex Grinch’s reputation as a defensive coordinator didn’t change in 2022, and that’s the problem

What is the most important central truth to convey about Alex Grinch at #USC (and frankly throughout his whole career, including Oklahoma)? We answer that question.

You are reading this story, which means you have just seen the title for the story: “Alex Grinch’s reputation as a defensive coordinator didn’t change in 2022.”

This leads us into an obvious, central question: Just what exactly was Alex Grinch’s reputation as a defensive coordinator?

Answering that question requires digging into his past, especially at Oklahoma, where he spent three full seasons alongside Lincoln Riley and produced seasons which were not that different from this one at USC.

You have to understand Alex Grinch’s history in order to understand his 2022 season. The real question is whether all of this means he deserves to coach this defense in 2023.

Let’s dive into this complicated conversation:

USC report card: handing out grades after Trojans get smoked by Utah in Pac-12 Championship Game

Which grade will interest you the most as a #USC fan or observer after this game? Probably our grade for Alex Grinch. Get that and all other grades here:

When USC lost to Utah the first time back on October 15, the Trojans played well enough to win but were brutally unlucky and were the recipients of the very best game Cam Rising and Dalton Kincaid could possibly play. Not getting a fair shake on two separate huge roughing-the-passer calls made that game feel like a contest which was taken away or, at the very least, altered by forces USC couldn’t entirely control.

This game on Friday night in Las Vegas was different.

Utah smoked USC. The Utes were better. They were tougher. They were deeper. They were stronger. They exposed the Trojans at their weakest points and elicited the conversations we expected to have about this flawed USC team in 2022. It came at the worst possible time, but it happened.

Our grades for the Trojans will reflect that, and they will lead into some necessary — and inconvenient — conversations about this program heading into 2023:

Pac-12 Championship Game images: scenes from a night of pain for USC

The images were sharp, dramatic and colorful, but they weren’t part of a victory. Good television, bad result for #USC.

The USC Trojans gave it everything they got. Heisman Trophy candidate and USC QB Caleb Williams did absolutely everything possible on one leg, but the Utah Utes ended up winning the Pac-12 title, 47-24, in Las Vegas on Friday night.

This was not the outcome everybody was expecting, and Caleb Williams’ injury changed the outcome of the game and the season for the Trojans.

It was an unfortunate night in Sin City for the Trojans and their fans, but the 11-2 team will still be headed for a New Year’s Six Bowl game in a successful first season with head coach Lincoln Riley.

It will be tough to digest, but here are some of the best photos from the Pac-12 title game.

Brett Neilon’s storied, transformative USC career likely ends with injury against Utah

It is a near certainty that Brett Neilon, who gave #USC the ‘Neilon Nudge’ vs Oregon State, has played his last game as a Trojan. No bowl game for him, barring a miracle.

Brett Neilon has been a fixture at USC over the past several years. He has seen it all: the hopefulness of 2019 when Kedon Slovis was a promising, evolving freshman, the 2020 pandemic season, the descent to rock bottom in 2021, the hire of Lincoln Riley, the offseason optimism mixed with uncertainty about the future, then this magnificent 2022 season and its overachieving dimensions.

Neilon, a pillar of the locker room and this team’s inner circle, deserved to play in USC’s high-end bowl game. Now, after being carted off with an injury in the Pac-12 Championship Game against Utah, it’s likely that he has played his last game at USC. It’s hard if not impossible to think he can play in the Trojans’ bowl game.

Here’s how the USC community and national football experts reacted to his injury on Friday night against Utah: