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Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris square off in a heavyweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 8 – also known as ESPN Fight Night 172 – at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The card kicks off Saturday at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.
Overeem (45-18) heads into this one with a three-inch reach advantage over his counterpart, while holding a distinct advantage in the significant strikes categories. He has a 3.54 to 2.96 advantage in significant strikes landed per minute, while dominating with a 62.38 significant strike-accuracy percentage to just 38.16 for Harris (13-7). Overeem isn’t a one-trick pony, however, as he also has a 1.39 to 0.35 takedown-average advantage and he has a 53.57 to 33.33 lead in the takedown-accuracy percentage department.
Overeem is looking to bounce back after a KO/TKO loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik with four seconds left Dec. 7, 2019. Overeem suffered an ugly cut to the lip as a result. He is 2-3 across the past five outings with each decided by KO/TKO. Nine of his past 10 bouts have finished inside the distance, including nine via KO/TKO (5-4). Keep in mind when betting method of victory, he hasn’t won or lost via submission in 17 career bouts at the UFC level, and he has been submitted just once in 63 career professional bouts overall.
Harris needed just 12 seconds to polish off Aleksei Oleinik by KO/TKO July 20, 2019. Harris is 3-0 with a No Contest over the past four outings with an overturned result Dec. 29, 2018 against Andrei Arlovski at UFC 232. Like Overeem, Harris sees plenty of fights finish early. Seven of his past eight have finished inside the distance. And, like Overeem, work on the canvas isn’t a big part of what Harris does. In 20 career professional bouts he has never won via submission, and lost just once in that fashion.
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Alistair Overeem vs. Walt Harris betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday, May 14 at 4:45 a.m. ET.
OVEREEM (+130) is the slight underdog in this one, but he is worth a look for a small-unit bet. Both he and Harris (-154) do not go the distance, and will go toe-to-toe throwing hands. Perhaps if this fight were taking place in front of fans, the American Harris could feed off the crowd. But it will be in an empty arena due to the COVID-19 pandemic situation. This is a coin-flip main event, so go with the better value – OVEREEM.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Overeem (+130) to win returns a $13 profit. A $10 bet on Harris (-154) to win fetches a $6.50 profit.
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