Tag: Orioles Red sox odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (80-75) and Boston Red Sox (74-81) meet for a Thursday matinee to close out a 4-game series. First pitch at Fenway Park is slated for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: tied 9-9

Baltimore is 1-4 over its last 5 games overall and has the same record across its last 5 games against the Red Sox. Those last 5 games have included 3 loose affairs with 20-plus combined runs scored and 2 games of the opposite ilk.

The Red Sox snapped a 6-game losing skid Tuesday and won against Wednesday. Red Sox pitching had been on a hot streak in the front half of September, but Boston owns a 6.00 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over its last 8 games.

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Orioles at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Mike Baumann vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Baumann (1-3, 4.32 ERA) has made 2 starts among his 11 games. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 25 IP.

  • Pitched 60 innings with a 4.20 ERA and 1.32 WHIP at Triple-A
  • Allowed 2 ER in 4 IP in his last start Saturday vs. the Houston Astros

Eovaldi (5-3, 4.15 ERA) owns 1.26 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 99 2/3 IP across 18 starts.

  • Coming off the 15-day IL; has not logged an MLB start since Aug. 12
  • Owns a 1.67 ERA over his last 5 turns against the Orioles (2021-22)

Orioles at Red Sox odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:52 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Orioles +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Red Sox -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Orioles 3

Money line

Boston is the lean but is better priced on the Run Line. PASS on the current tag, but ML bettors may want to hunt a Boston (-155) play.

Run line/Against the spread

Boston has played better in the last month than its record would reflect. Eovaldi battles the injury-return question mark well enough with his dominant history against Baltimore.

TAKE BOSTON -1.5 (+125).

Over/Under

Analytics pointing both ways here, and these two AL East foes have been playing wildly divergent types of games this season.

PASS.

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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (80-74) and Boston Red Sox (73-81) battle in Game 3 of a 4-game series Wednesday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Baltimore leads 10-8

Baltimore has split 2 high-scoring games so far in this series. A usually strong Orioles pitching staff has yielded 36 runs on 54 hits in its last 4 games. Baltimore has gone 1-3 over that stretch.

The Red Sox won Tuesday’s game 13-9. That victory snapped a 6-game Boston losing streak. Red Sox pitching had been on a hot streak in the front half of of September, but Boston owns a 6.79 ERA over its last 7 games.

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Orioles at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Dean Kremer vs. LHP Rich Hill

Kremer (8-5, 3.07 ERA) has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 114 1/3 IP in 20 games (19 starts)

  • Has allowed an aggregate .860 OPS against current Boston batters
  • Coming off a season-high 106 pitches in his last effort, a shutout vs. the Houston Astros on Friday

Hill (7-7, 4.81 ERA) making his 25th start and he has a 1.34 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 112 1/3 IP.

  • Faces a Baltimore team that is tougher on right-handers (.713 OPS) than lefties (.672 OPS)
  • Was solid against the Orioles 3 starts back (5 IP, 0 ER on 2H)

Orioles at Red Sox odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:07 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Orioles +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 7, Orioles 4

Money line

Boston is the lean but, with a high total, is worth more of a look on the Run Line. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Boston has played better in the last month than its record would reflect. Kremer gives up a lot of fly balls and has been a bit home-run lucky. He’s vulnerable in this spot off the big pitch count.

TAKE BOSTON -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under

Both bullpens could use a day off. Look for the high-scoring series to continue.

BACK THE OVER 9.5 (+110).

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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (79-73) and Boston Red Sox (72-80) swing into a 4-game series Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Baltimore leads 8-7

Baltimore made a late-summer surge but is just 8-12 over its last 20 games. The Orioles have clocked a mere .654 OPS over those last 20 games.

The Red Sox are coming off being swept in a 4-game series at the New York Yankees, and they have lost 5 in a row overall. A Boston club that banged out a .795 OPS from Sept. 10-20 has slashed a .203/.285/.360 (.644 OPS) over the losing skid.

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Orioles at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Jordan Lyles vs. RHP Connor Seabold

Lyles (11-11, 4.50 ERA) owns a 1.39 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 170 IP across 30 starts.

  • Has logged a 4.99 ERA over his last 7 starts
  • Owns a 6.12 ERA across his last 5 starts vs. Boston

Seabold (0-3, 10.47 ERA) is tabbed for his 5th start. He has a 2.20 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 16 1/3 IP.

  • A 23-year-old who made 3 starts for the Sox midsummer and then returned to the rotation Wednesday with 4 ER on 6 H over 5 IP at the Cincinnati Reds
  • Has notched a 3.32 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season at Triple-A

Orioles at Red Sox odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Orioles +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-175) | Red Sox -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Orioles 4

Money line

Boston batters own an aggregate .839 OPS against Lyles, and the Red Sox have the more rested bullpen heading into this series.

Keep a watch on Boston: it is worth some action at -130 or better, but PASS until that price.

Run line/Against the spread

Similar to the calculation above, and in play due to a likable high-total Over (which implies a potentially looser game), you should track the tag here: Boston -1.5 is worth a play at +145 or better.

PASS unless such a price becomes available.

Over/Under

Boston has had much success against Lyles. A double-digit breeze out to left-center field is in the forecast.

BACK THE OVER 9.5 (-115).

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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (20-29) are at Fenway Park Monday for the rubber match of their 5-game series with the Boston Red Sox (23-25). First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Baltimore leads 4-3, but Boston has a plus-3 run differential in those meetings. This series is tied 2-2.

Boston blasted Baltimore 12-2 Sunday and the Red Sox had 10 extra-base hits — 5 home runs and 5 doubles.

Orioles at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Tyler Wells vs. LHP Rich Hill

Wells is 1-4 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 2-0 Wednesday at the New York Yankees with 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB and 2 K.
  • 2021 road splits: 0-4 with a 6.50 ERA (18 IP, 13 ER), 24 H, 4 HR, 2 BB and 11 K in 5 starts.

Hill is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 35 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 3-1 Wednesday at the Chicago White Sox with 5 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB and 1 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Orioles: One start, a no-decision in Boston’s 3-1 win in Baltimore April 29  with 4 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB and 4 K.

Orioles at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Orioles +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Red Sox -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-135) | Red Sox -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 7, Red Sox 6

Money line

Slight LEAN to the ORIOLES (+140) because everyone is betting the Red Sox (-175) and they shouldn’t be this big of a favorite with Hill on the mound.

Historically, lefty pitchers struggle at Fenway Park more than the righties. In 3 starts at home this season, Hill is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA (2.70 road ERA), 1.46 WHIP (1.03 road WHIP) and 3 HR allowed (1 HR on the road).

Also, Baltimore’s bullpen is much more reliable than Boston’s. Baltimore relievers have a better ERA, xFIP, HR allowed per 9 innings, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, exit velocity and chase rate than Boston’s (per FanGraphs).

But, Baltimore is in the basement of the AL East and has lost 5 straight as road underdogs with Wells on the mound, hence the LEAN ORIOLES (+140).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Orioles +1.5 (-135) is too expensive considering they are 12-14 RL as road underdogs and that 6 of the 7 Orioles-Red Sox meetings this season have been decided by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 10.5 (+100) only because Orioles-Red Sox is 3-7 O/U in their last 10 meetings and Baltimore is 2-7 O/U in Wells’ 9 starts despite his plus-4.00 ERA.

However, it’s going to be a warm day in Boston so the ball could be jumping off the bat at Fenway Park, Hill’s numbers are atrocious at home and Wells has a 6.50 ERA in 18 innings pitched over 4 road starts.

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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (47-99) and Boston Red Sox (83-65) open a three-game AL East series Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Keegan Akin is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles. Through 22 games (15 starts), he is 2-9 with a 6.83 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 across 85 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 3.68 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last four starts, and that includes two turns against the Toronto Blue Jays and one against the New York Yankees.
  • Has been hindered by a .324 BABIP and a 62.8% left-on-base rate.

LHP Chris Sale is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. Through five starts this season, he is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 25 IP.

  • Coming off the COVID-19 list and hasn’t pitched since Sept. 6. Owns a career 2.68 ERA (and a 6.2 K/BB ratio) when pitching on six or more days of rest.

Orioles at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Orioles +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Red Sox -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +2.5 (+102) | Red Sox -2.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Red Sox 5, Orioles 4

Money line (ML)

Baltimore is coming off an 11-game home stand over which it went 4-7. The Orioles had a five-game losing skid along the way but snapped that with a 3-2 win over the Yankees Thursday evening.

The Red Sox had Thursday off after a road trip against the Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners. Boston is 1-5 across its last six games after an off day.

The Sox are 9-4 — with a plus-30 run differential — over 13 games against the O’s. However, Akin’s recent starts, Sale’s post-COVID status, and the pricing here make for value on BALTIMORE (+290).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Baltimore owns a fine .757 OPS against southpaws to rank eighth in MLB. The Orioles lean further to the right than most clubs when facing lefties and nd that plays into an advantage against a Sox bullpen which is tougher on lefty batters.

Consider BALTIMORE +2.5 (+102) as an insurance rider on the above ML play.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Fenway forecast calls for an inward breeze that would be a boon for the underdog-fly-balling Akin.

Peg the UNDER 9.5 (-105) with just a slight edge.

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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (38-75) will look to halt an eight-game skid when they open a three-game weekend series against the Boston Red Sox (66-51) Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Orioles RHP Spenser Watkins (2-3, 4.22 ERA) makes his seventh start and eighth appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 32 IP.

  • Watkins allowed exactly 1 ER in each of his first three starts despite some mediocre skills. Regression has set in, as he has surrendered exactly 4 ER in each of his last three outings.
  • The 28-year-old has never been one to miss many bats as evidenced by a rather pedestrian 7.6 K/9 across seven minor league seasons.

Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta (8-5, 4.34 ERA) makes his 23rd start of the season Friday evening.. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 118 1/3 IP.

  • Has fared much better on the road than at home this season. He has recorded a 5.80 ERA along with a 2.0 HR/9 and 4.3 BB/9 through 11 home starts.
  • Has been hit or miss lately with three starts of 6-plus IP and 0 ER and seven starts where he allowed at least 3 ER over his last 10 outings, resulting in a 5.00 ERA over that span.

Orioles at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:19 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Orioles +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Red Sox -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Orioes +1.5 (+100) | Red Sox -1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Red Sox 7, Orioles 4

Money line (ML)

The Red Sox are fourth in the league in runs per game at home with 5.33, and they boast a strong 34-24 record in their home park. They get to face a starting pitcher in Watkins who possesses a pretty soft skill-set and shouldn’t have much trouble getting to him.

That being said, -250 is just too much to pay for Pivetta against anyone, especially when factoring in his struggles at home this year. PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Earlier this week the Orioles put a stop to a streak of six straight games in which their opponent scored 9 or more runs, including a 12-3 loss to Tampa the last time Watkins took the mound.

Pivetta isn’t likely to shut down the Baltimore bats but the Red Sox should still put up enough offense to win by more than 1 run. Back the RED SOX -1.5 (-125).

Over/Under (O/U)

Most signs point to this being a high-scoring contest. The Red Sox hit very well at home and are facing a weak pitcher, while Pivetta has had issues at Fenway Park throughout the season.

The Over is 6-1-1 in Baltimore’s last eight games, and that trend should continue Friday evening as both teams should do their part in pushing this total OVER 10.5 (-130).

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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox open a three-game series Thursday at 2:10 p.m. at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP John Means is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles. He was 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 43 2/3 IP over 10 starts last season. For his career, Means has been cuffed to the tune of a .786 on-base-plus-slugging in 88 1/3 innings on the road. He struggles against righty bats which is often a difficult cross to bear in games at Fenway.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi is the projected starter for the Red Sox. He went 4-2 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in 48 1/3 IP over nine starts. Eovaldi has had some shaky early-season numbers in his career (.760 OPS allowed in March/April), but he owns a solid career line against current Baltimore batters (.667 OPS allowed, 2.6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio).

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Orioles at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Wednesday at 6:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Orioles +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Red Sox -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +1.5 (-145) | Red Sox -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Orioles 3

Money line (ML)

Peg Eovaldi as the more bankable starter in this matchup, and look for the Red Sox to get off to a good start with manager Alex Cora once again at the helm. The pricing here seems to treat the pitching matchup as a flat trade-off.

TAKE BOSTON -165.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

On a high total with a slight lean toward the Over, RED SOX -1.5 (+120) fits nicely as a secondary play.  Current Boston batters own a contact-heavy .874 OPS against Means. Even in chilly weather, the odds of Means getting jumped in a multi-run Boston romp make for a solid return here.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over has attracted some attention in this tilt. But the extra juice on the upward play here squelches value. PASS.

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