The red-hot Baltimore Orioles (45-44) roll into Tropicana Field Friday to start a 3-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays (49-40) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Rays nickname odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Baltimore has won 10 straight and has played its way into contention for the 3rd and final AL wild-card seed.
Tampa is 6-4 overall in the last 10 and finished off a 4-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox with a 5-4 home win Thursday.
The Rays lead the season series with the Orioles 5-4 with a plus-12 run differential in those meetings.
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Orioles at Rays projected starters
RHP Tyler Wells vs. RHP Luis Patino
Wells is 7-4 with a 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 79 2/3 IP over 17 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Baltimore’s 5-4 home win vs. the Los Angeles Angels Friday with 4 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 vs. the Rays: 0-1 with a 9.95 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 5 H, 2 HR, 4 BB and 6 K in 2 starts.
Patino (0-1, 13.50 ERA) has pitched just 2/3 IP this season, allowing just 1 ER with 0 BB and 0 K against the Oakland Athletics April 11
- 2021 vs. the Orioles: One start, a no-decision in Tampa’s 13-6 win in Baltimore May 18 with 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
- 2021 home splits: 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA (43 IP, 15 ER), 1.12 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance.
Orioles at Rays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:43 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Orioles +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rays -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-205) | Rays -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Orioles at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Rays 1
Money line
BET 1 unit on the red-hot ORIOLES (+105) because as a fade against 84% of the money coming into Tipico Sportsbook on the Rays (-130).
Also, Wells has sensational advanced pitching numbers against the Rays and Baltimore’s bullpen is slightly more reliable than Tampa’s.
Wells has a 33.3% K-rate in 30 plate appearances vs. active Rays hitters with a .100/.154/.114 expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line and an 81.2 mph exit velocity, according to Statcast.
Finally, Baltimore’s bullpen has a better WAR (4.4-1.5), FIP (4.03-3.62) and home run per 9-inning rate (1.12-0.82) than the Rays, per FanGraphs.
BET the ORIOLES (+105).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Orioles +1.5 (-205) are too expensive but appropriately priced considering they are 52-27 RL as underdogs whereas the Rays -1.5 (+165) are 21-37 RL as favorites.
Over/Under
BET a half-unit on the UNDER 7.5 (-120) since Baltimore’s ML is my favorite look in this game.
But, there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario shaping the betting market with nearly two-thirds of the money on the Under while more than 60% of the bets placed are on the Over, per Pregame.com. Since professionals wager a lot more dough than your average Joe, following the money is the sharp play.
More importantly, I’d argue both ballclubs’ pitching staffs play more of a role in their winning records than the lineups.
BET UNDER 7.5 (-112).
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