Orioles Rangers picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Baltimore Orioles (52-51) visit Globe Life Field Tuesday to play the Texas Rangers (46-56) for the 2nd-game of their 3-game set. First pitch is at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Baltimore leads 4-0 and has a plus-8 run differential

Baltimore won the series opener 7-2 Monday with Orioles batters 1-4 (CF Cedric Mullins, C Adley Rutschman, DH Anthony Santander and 1B Ryan Mountcastle) going 8-for-17 at the plate with 1 home run, 3 doubles and 6 RBIs. Rangers RHP Jon Gray exited in the 2nd inning with discomfort in his side.

The Orioles traded now-former All-Star closer Jorge Lopez to the Minnesota Twins and 1B Trey Mancini to the Houston Astros before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

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Orioles at Rangers projected starters

RHP Jordan Lyles vs. RHP Spencer Howard

Lyles is 7-8 with a 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 118 1/3 IP over 21 starts.

Last start: Win, 3-0, at home Thursday vs. the Tampa Bay Rays with 5 2/3-scoreless IP, 3 H, 4 BB and 4 K.
This is a “revenge game” for Lyles who pitched in Texas in the previous 2 seasons.

Howard is 2-2 with a 5.93 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 30 1/3 IP across 6 starts and 2 relief appearances.

Last start: Win, 2-0, Thursday at the Los Angeles Angels with 5-scoreless IP, 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
2022 vs. the Orioles: No-decision in Texas’s 10-9 loss in Baltimore Tuesday with 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 2 K.

Orioles at Rangers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:18 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Orioles +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rangers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-190) | Rangers -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Orioles at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 6, Rangers 4

Money line

BET a half-unit on the ORIOLES (+105) since the Rangers are 17-21 straight up (SU) as favorites.

Baltimore has the edge in the pitching matchup Tuesday. It’s a “revenge game” for Lyles who’s pitched well over his last 7 starts (3-2 SU with a 3.86 ERA) and Texas’s bullpen is fatigued after Gray exited Monday’s Orioles-Rangers meeting in the 2nd inning.

Baltimore’s lineup is also more productive vs. right-handed pitching. The Orioles outperform the Rangers against righty pitching in runs per 9 (4.47-4.16), wRC+ (96-84), wOBA (.304-.298) and ISO (.155-.146), according to FanGraphs.

BET the ORIOLES (+105) for a half-unit only because there’s “reverse line movement” in the betting market per Pregame.com, which suggests the Rangers could be the sharper side.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Orioles +1.5 (-190) is way out of my price range for an outright bet but it’s obviously the right side. Baltimore is 31-21 RL as a road underdog and Texas is 8-14 RL as a home favorite.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-122) because both starters are “bottom-of-the-rotation” guys and both bullpens are taxed.

Globe Life Field ranks 8th in park factor and there are hitter-friendly weather conditions forecasted Tuesday with temperatures in the high-90s and a 12 mph wind blowing out to center field.

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The Texas Rangers (46-55) host the Baltimore Orioles (51-51) Monday for their 3-game series opener at Globe Life Field with the 1st pitch scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Baltimore lost the rubber match Sunday of its 3-game set at the Cincinnati Reds 3-2 and the Orioles are 5-5 straight up (SU) since the All-Star break.

Texas won 3 of 4 games at the Los Angeles Angels including a 5-2 victory in the series finale Sunday, but the Rangers are just 4-6 SU in the last 10.

Season series: Baltimore leads 3-0 and outscored Texas 19-16 in a 3-game sweep July 4-6.

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Orioles at Rangers projected starters

RHP Spenser Watkins vs. RHP Jon Gray

Watkins is 3-1 with a 4.03 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 58 IP over 13 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Baltimore’s 5-3 home win vs. the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 10 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Rangers: 1 start, a 2-1 home win July 6, with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 3 K.

Gray is 7-5 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 102 IP across 18 starts.

Last start: Lost 4-2 Wednesday at the Seattle Mariners with 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 8 K.
2021 vs. the Orioles: 1 start, a 3-1 win July 17 in Baltimore while pitching for the Colorado Rockies with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.

Orioles at Rangers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:02 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Orioles +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Rangers -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-160) | Rangers -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Orioles at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 5, Orioles 2

Money line

RISK 1 UNIT on the RANGERS (-165) instead of betting to win 1 unit.

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market with roughly 70% of the cash on the Rangers whereas nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Orioles (+133), per Pregame.com.

Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than you or I.

Furthermore, Texas is 4-1 SU at home with Gray on the hill with an average final score of 5.00-3.40 with a plus-60.2% return on investment and Gray’s advanced pitching numbers are much better than Watkins’.

For instance, Gray’s K%, hard-hit rate and exit velocity are all better than the MLB average while Watkins’ are worse. Also, Gray’s FIP (3.37) is lower than his ERA whereas Watkins’ FIP is higher (4.45). FIP is more predictive than ERA so Gray’s pitching performance is more likely to continue than Watkins’.

If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the RANGERS (-165) to earn a $60.61 profit instead of betting $165 to win $100.