The Baltimore Orioles (20-21) are in the Big Apple for the second of a two-game set against the New York Mets (19-24) Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Below, we analyze the Orioles-Mets MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Baltimore leads 1-0.
Orioles at Mets: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Jorge Lopez vs. RHP Rick Porcello
Lopez: 1-0 with a 5.59 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 19 1/3 in 6 games (2 starts).
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER (3 unearned), 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K vs. New York Yankees Friday – Orioles won 6-3.
Porcello: 1-4 with a 5.54 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 39 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K vs. Philadelphia Phillies Friday – Mets lost 5-3.
- Career vs. Orioles: 8-12 with a 4.77 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 108 K and 28 BB in 137 2/3 IP over 23 starts.
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Orioles at Mets: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Orioles
- OF Austin Hays (ribs) out
Mets
- RP Dellin Betances (back) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Orioles at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:56 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Orioles 8, Mets 4
Moneyline (ML)
The ORIOLES (+165) are getting a fat number again despite beating up on the sub-.500 Mets (-182) 11-2 Tuesday. Porcello’s career numbers against Baltimore aren’t good and the Orioles actually have a decent lineup this year (ranked 6th in BA and 8th in OPS).
Baltimore has a winning road record (10-6), while New York has a losing home record (9-13) and there is too much value in the ORIOLES.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Orioles pays a $16.50 profit if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
We made the same plays last night and it got us paid. I prefer to bet teams coming off of losses and fade teams that just won. But Baltimore is on a four-game winning streak and it feels like BetMGM is pricing these lines based on the expectation the Orioles won’t keep their hot streak up.
False, BetMGM and we’ll take the insurance. The ORIOLES +1.5 (-129) are the play.
A $12.90 bet on the Orioles fetches a $10 profit if they win outright or don’t lose by 2 runs or more.
Over/Under (O/U)
The total is set at 9.5 with -110 odds on both sides. Lopez has a higher ERA on the road and Porcello has a higher ERA at home. The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings (three of those games were this season). We’re going to follow that trend. SMALL WAGER ON OVER 9.5 (-110).
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