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The eighth-seeded Oregon Ducks (24-8) battle the top-seeded Michigan State Spartans (26-5) Friday in the quarterfinal round of the Big Ten Tournament. Tip-off from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is scheduled for noon ET (Big Ten Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Oregon vs. Michigan State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Oregon extended its winning streak to 8 games Thursday, taking down the Indiana Hoosiers, 72-59, in the second round of the tournament. The Ducks covered as 2-point favorites, while the Under (142) hit. G Jackson Shelstad led the way with 18 points in the win. Regardless of how it finishes in the conference tournament, Oregon is set to make just its second NCAA Tournament appearance since 2022.
Michigan State, which is No. 6 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll, enters the tournament as the 1 seed after winning 8 of its last 9 games. The Spartans capped off the regular season with a dominant 79-62 win over their in-state rival, the Michigan Wolverines, Saturday, covering as 7.5-point home favorites. The Under (149) hit. G Tre Holloman provided a spark off the bench, leading the team with 20 points. Now, Michigan State is looking to carry that momentum into the postseason and capture its first Big Ten Tournament title since 2019.
Michigan State beat the Ducks, 86-74, in their lone regular-season meeting Feb. 8. The Spartans covered as 10-point home favorites, and the Over (146) cashed.
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Oregon vs. Michigan State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Oregon +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Michigan State -235 (bet $235 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Oregon +5.5 (-110) | Michigan -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 143.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Oregon vs. Michigan State picks and predictions
Prediction
Michigan State 73, Oregon 64
Moneyline
PASS.
The top-seeded Spartans (-235) should get the victory Friday afternoon, but I’m going to avoid paying that juice on the moneyline and will take my wager to the spread.
Against the spread
BET MICHIGAN STATE -5.5 (-110).
There are 3 things you can count on in life: Death, taxes, and Tom Izzo’s teams showing up in March. Michigan State is built for this time of year, and betting against the Spartans in tournament play is never a wise move.
Oregon has played well, riding an 8-game win streak, but outside of a road win at Wisconsin, the resume isn’t overly impressive. Meanwhile, Michigan State has taken down 5 ranked teams in its last 6 games.
The Spartans thrive on defense, allowing just 67 points per game, and their balanced scoring attack makes them tough to stop. They don’t rely on a single star; when one player gets shut down, another steps up. Expect Michigan State to grind this one out, advance to the semifinals, and continue its March magic.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 143.5 (-115).
The first meeting went Over, but this is a different setting. Oregon has hit the Under in 6 of its last 7 games, while Michigan State has gone Under in 8 of its last 10 outings. The Spartans defense should control the pace, making points tough to come by. Expect another Under here.
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