Open Championship PROP BETS Open Championship odds Open Championship picks Open Championship predictions betting

2024 Open Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 Open Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

Players will have one last chance to win a major championship this year when they head to Royal Troon for the 2024 Open Championship, the final major of the season. The 1st round will begin on Thursday morning from Scotland as the world’s top golfers take on this historic links course.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets from BetMGM Sportsbook among the 2024 Open Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is teeing it up for the 1st time since winning the Travelers Championship a month ago, opting to skip the Genesis Scottish Open last week. Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg and Bryson DeChambeau are also among the favorites to win this week at Royal Troon. The defending champion, Brian Harman, is +6600 to retain the Claret Jug and win his 2nd straight Open Championship.

Royal Troon is a par 71 and 7,385 yards, coming with a traditional links layout that features holes along the coastline, pot bunkers in the fairway and thick fescue outlining the holes. Because it’s not terribly long, it’s not a course players can overpower with their length, making it more about positioning and accuracy.

Open Championship: Best outright winner predictions

Open Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:12 p.m. ET.

Rory McIlroy (+160)

McIlroy has come agonizingly close to winning another major and it’s more than likely going to happen at some point soon. This is a great week for him to finally break through and end his major-less drought, but another near-miss with a top-5 finish is also very much in the cards.

Collin Morikawa (+333)

Morikawa is a former Open Championship winner and one of the hottest players in the world right now with 6 top-10s in his last 9 individual events, including 5 top-5s. He’s accurate off the tee and putting the ball well. It’s just a matter of it all coming together in the same week.

Tony Finau (+650)

Betting Finau to win any major feels like a fool’s errand, but he’s had a number of finishes near the top of the leaderboard, particularly in the Open; he finished 3rd in 2019.

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

Open Championship – Top-10 picks

Xander Schauffele (+125)

Schauffele to finish in the top 10 at any major is close to an auto-bet, especially with the way he’s playing right now. Already with 1 major title this year, Schauffele is a good pick to finish in the top 10 after doing so in 5 of his last 7 major starts, including all 3 this year.

Viktor Hovland (+275)

In 3 career Open starts, he’s come in 12th, 4th and 13th. He’s not been completely forgotten since a stellar 2023 season, but he’s certainly not at the forefront anymore due to his early-season struggles. This is a good time to buy some stock in the Norweigan star.

Cameron Smith (+333)

Smith was the 2022 Open champion after edging McIlroy and Cameron Young and blitzing the field with back-to-back 64s on the weekend at St. Andrews. His driver might be a bit wild for Royal Troon, but if he can hit a driving iron or fairway wood off the tee to keep it in the fairway, it’ll give him a great chance to contend.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Brian Harman (+500)
Cameron Young (+400)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Open Championship – Top-20 picks

Tyrrell Hatton (+100)

Hatton is one of the better links players in the world, as evidenced by his 4 top-20 finishes in the Open since 2016. He also has 2 top 10s in that span, giving him a couple of close calls in pursuit of the Claret Jug.

Tom Kim (+150)

Kim shot 6-under at the Scottish Open on Sunday to sneak into the top 15, yet another impressive finish in that tournament. Last year, he finished tied for 2nd in the Open Championship at Royal Liverpool, and now he gets to play Royal Troon, which fits him even better.

Aaron Rai (+200)

Rai has finished in the top 20 in 5 consecutive starts this season, a streak he’ll try to keep alive this week. He finished 19th in the 2021 Open Championship and being from England, he has experience playing links-style courses where weather is often a factor.

Alex Noren (+250)

Noren fired a 5-under on Sunday in the Scottish Open to finish T-10, another impressive showing from the Swede. Very quietly, he’s finished 23rd or better in 4 of his last 5 Open starts, and you could argue he’s currently playing the best golf of his career.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Dean Burmester (+350)
Louis Oosthuizen (+225)

Open Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Rory McIlroy (+115) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-145)

It’s not usually a great idea to fade Scheffler, but I’ll take McIlroy at plus money against the world No. 1, who skipped the Genesis Scottish Open and hasn’t played since the Travelers last month. Scheffler can win anywhere, but McIlroy is poised for a great week, potentially even a win.

Jordan Spieth (-105) vs. Justin Thomas (-120)

Thomas spoke last week about his love for links golf, but you wouldn’t get that impression from his Open record: 3 missed cuts, 3 finishes 40th or worse and one T-11 since 2016. Spieth, on the other hand, has won the Open before and could flip a switch at any moment, even if he’s played poorly this year.

Open Championship – Top American

Collin Morikawa (+750)

Scheffler is the obvious favorite in this market but Morikawa has good odds at +750. This bet eliminates contenders such as McIlroy and Aberg from the mix, making it a safer play to buy stock in Morikawa at Troon.

Open Championship – Top Dane

Nicolai Hojgaard (+150)

Hojgaard has contend with his brother, Rasmus Hojgaard (+175), as well as Thorbjorn Oleson (+333) and Jacob Skov Oleson (+750) in this category. Nicolai is a sleeper pick this week because of his links experience and recent form, including a pair of 66s at the Scottish Open to open last week before fading on the weekend.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Open Championship – First-round leader

Collin Morikawa (+2800)

Thanks to his recent run, Morikawa now ranks 2nd on tour in 1st-round scoring average this season. He’s come out firing in events this summer and it’s easy to believe he’ll put up another low number on Thursday to get his week started the right way.

Aaron Rai (+6600)

Rai ranks 8th on tour in Round 1 scoring average and as previously mentioned, he’s posted 5 consecutive top-20 finishes coming into the week.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group D winner: Tom Kim (+275)

This group consists of Kim, Hideki Matsuyama (+333), Patrick Cantlay (+333), Sahith Theegala (+400) and Cameron Young (+450). These are all very volatile players with high variance in an event like this, but Kim is the best combination of links experience and current form.

Any LIV player to win the tournament (+350)

This bet cashed at the U.S. Open with DeChambeau winning at Pinehurst and it’s worth running back again this week. It gives you exposure to not only DeChambeau, Smith and Brooks Koepka, but also Hatton and Jon Rahm, who are both legitimate contenders to win. Even Joaquin Niemann could be a threat on Sunday.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Are you counting the days to NFL Week 1 or the kickoff of college football? You can fill the time at an online casino in your state and play blackjack, roulette, slots, video poker and more.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]

2023 The Open Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 The Open Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

Royal Liverpool in Hoylake will play host to the year’s 4th and final major this week. The Open Championship is set to begin on Thursday morning from England as players try to win the coveted Claret Jug.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among The Open Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler comes into The Open as the top-ranked golfer in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, followed by Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay. Last year’s champion, Cameron Smith, is ranked 33rd entering the 151st Open Championship.

Royal Liverpool is hosting The Open for the 15th time, with the last coming in 2014 when McIlroy won by 2 shots over Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia. It’s a par 71 and 7,313 yards, but it will play considerably longer when the wind is blowing into the players’ faces. The 10th hole has also been changed to a par 4 instead of a par 5, while the stretch from 15-17 has also been altered because of the creation of the par-3 17th hole – a diabolical short par 3 with bunkers all around and a green that runs off to every side.

2023 The Open Championship

Follow The Open Championship leaderboard, scores, news, groupings, course details and more from Golfweek and USA TODAY. Catch the tournament July 20-23.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

The Open Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Jordan Spieth (+600)

Spieth missed the cut at the Scottish Open last week, which wasn’t the way he wanted to start his 2-week stretch in the UK. However, he’s a master on links courses, in part because of the creativity required to win on them. In his last 5 Open Championship starts, he’s finished outside the top 9 once, and that was a T-20 in 2019. He’s never missed the cut and has 3 top-5s, including a win in this championship.

Brooks Koepka (+400)

Koepka already has top 5s in each of the 1st 3 majors of the year and he’s posted 4 top-10s in his last 6 Open Championship starts. His game is best suited for difficult conditions, which there certainly will be this week at Royal Liverpool. Never sleep on Koepka in majors. He lives for them.

Rory McIlroy (+150)

McIlroy’s odds are super short this week coming off his Scottish Open win, but they’re warranted. He’s finished in the top 10 in 6 of his last 7 major starts and was the runner-up at the U.S. Open just a month ago, a stretch that includes 4 top-5s, as well. At +150, there may not seem like a ton of value, but it’s a good bit of insurance in case he comes up just short again.

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

The Open Championship – Top-10 picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+188)

Fleetwood has 2 top-4 finishes in the Open in his last 3 starts, so it’s not as if he hasn’t come close before. He also has 3 top-6s in his last 4 starts worldwide, including a T-6 at the Genesis Scottish Open. He has a great chance to win this week with the way he’s been playing as of late.

Tyrrell Hatton (+188)

Is this the week it all comes together for Hatton and he doesn’t get a single bad break to complain about? It’s a definite no on the latter, but Hatton is as well-rounded a player right now as there is outside of Scheffler and McIlroy. His worst finish since a T-34 at the Masters was a T-27 in the U.S. Open, notching 7 other top-20s in that span – including 4 top-10s.

Tony Finau (+375)

Finau doesn’t have the recent form that many of the other top players do, but he’s quietly been fantastic in Open Championships. In 6 starts, he’s never finished worse than T-28 and has 2 top-10s. The safer bet is a top-20 at +180, but the +375 line is tough to pass up.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Cameron Young (+400)
Scottie Scheffler (-125)

The Open Championship – Top-20 picks

Rickie Fowler (+105)

Fowler has been a top-20 machine all year and he finally broke through with a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He has 15 top-25 finishes in 21 starts this season, 9 of which have come in his last 12 starts. Getting him at plus-money for a top-20 feels like a bargain.

Min Woo Lee (+200)

Lee finished 35th at the Scottish Open, his 2nd good finish on links courses this year after coming in 2nd in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. In last year’s Open Championship, he finished 21st after missing the cut in 2021.

Brian Harman (+275)

Harman is an underrated links player and this course suits him well, requiring proper placement off the tee in order to avoid the penalizing bunkers. He came in 6th and 19th in the last 2 Open Championships and he finished 12th in the Scottish Open a week ago.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Corey Conners (+240)
Tom Kim (+170)

The Open Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Corey Conners (+100) vs. Bryson DeChambeau (-125)

This isn’t going to be a course DeChambeau can overpower with his length, which is part of the reason I like Conners’ ball-striking in this matchup. He’s finished 15th and 28th in the last 2 Open Championships and came in 19th at the Scottish Open last week.

Tom Kim (-120) vs. Sam Burns (-105)

Neither Kim nor Burns has a lot of experience in the Open, but Kim has played really well in the Scottish Open the last 2 years, finishing 3rd and 6th. Burns finished 19th in this year’s Scottish Open but hasn’t done better than 42nd in the Open.

Adam Scott (-105) vs. Patrick Reed (-120)

Scott not only played in the last Open at Royal Liverpool, but he finished T-15. He’s only missed the cut twice in this tournament since 2010, proving his talent on links courses over the years.

The Open Championship – Top American

Jordan Spieth (+1600)

There are a lot of players to like in this category, including Scheffler and Koepka, but Spieth at +1600 – 8th-best of any American – is borderline disrespectful. Going back to his Open Championship history, it’s hard not to like the value here.

The Open Championship – Top Asian

Tom Kim (+333)

The biggest competitors here are Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An and Si Woo Kim. An obviously played well last week at the Scottish Open with a 3rd-place finish, but Kim should’ve cashed this bet; he 3-putted from 7 feet for double on 18 to lose by 1 to An. Im struggles badly on links courses, as has Matsuyama. And Kim has only finished better than 67th once in his last 4 Open starts.

The Open Championship – First-round leader

Viktor Hovland (+3300)

Back to Hovland FRL we go. He shot 65 in the opening round of the Masters, 68 in the PGA Championship and 69 in the U.S. Open, getting off to strong starts in all 3 majors this year.

Jordan Spieth (+4000)

Spieth fired an opening-round 65 in 2021 to sit just 1 shot back of the lead. He could come out firing after missing the cut at the Scottish Open last week, going low once again in the Open.

The Open Championship – To make the cut

Suggested play in bold.

Sungjae Im: NO (+170) vs. Yes (-225)
Wyndham Clark: NO (+220) vs. Yes (-300)

I’m going to fade both players this week, especially Im. He’s finished 81st and missed the cut in his 2 Open Championship starts and just missed the cut at the Scottish Open, the 2nd time he’s done so in 2 starts in that event. Links golf just doesn’t suit him.

With Clark, he hits a sweeping fade, which won’t work on the many left doglegs this week, especially in a left-to-right wind. He finished 76th in his Open debut last year, though he does have top-25s in the last 2 Scottish Opens.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group H winner: Brian Harman (+333)

I like Harman’s chances in this group against Denny McCarthy (+300), Gary Woodland (+300), Branden Grace (+400) and Lucas Herbert (+500). McCarthy is making his championship debut, Woodland has missed the cut in the last 3 years, Grace missed the cut in 2 of his last 3 Open starts and I simply like Harman over Herbert this week.

Any LIV Tour player to win the tournament (+400)

LIV players have performed well in the majors this year, particularly Koepka and Smith. With this bet, you’re also mixing in Dustin Johnson, who came in 12th on this very course in 2014.

Winning margin: 2 strokes (+350)

The winning margins have been all over the place in this tournament since 2013, ranging from a playoff to a 6-shot win by Shane Lowry. A win by 2 strokes feels like the right number this week.