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The 15th-seeded Omaha Mavericks (22-12) meet the second-seeded St. John’s Red Storm (30-4) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament’s West Region. Tip from Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island, is set for 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Omaha vs. St. John’s odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Mavericks earned an automatic NCAA Tournament bid after beating the St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies 85-75 in the Summit League Championship March 9, covering as 4-point neutral-court underdogs with the Over (152.5) hitting. Omaha is on a 6-0 against-the-spread (ATS) run — twice as ‘dogs — including covers in 3 consecutive conference tournament games. The Mavs are 23-9 ATS on the season, the fifth-best ATS record in Division-I, per Teamrankings.com. F Marquel Sutton leads Omaha in points (19.1 per game) and rebounds (8.0 per game).
The Red Storm, No. 5 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll, beat the Creighton Bluejays 82-66 in the Big East Championship Saturday at Madison Square Garden. G RJ Luis Jr. scored 27 of his 29 points in the second-half, helping St. John’s cover as 6.5-point favorites with the Over (143.5) cashing. The Red Storm have ripped off 9 straight wins — including 3 in the Big East Tourney — closing as favorites in each and covering in 6 of those. St. John’s, 22-11-1 ATS on the season, is deep with 6 players averaging at least 8 points per game.
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Omaha vs. St. John’s odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Omaha +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200) | St. John’s -3000 (bet $3,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Omaha +18.5 (-110) | St. John’s -18.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 148.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Omaha vs. St. John’s picks and predictions
Prediction
St. John’s 84, Omaha 62
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no playable wager here. St. John’s (-3000) should win with ease but is far too expensive to play.
Against the spread
BET ST. JOHN’S -18.5 (-110).
The Red Storm are 8-6 ATS the 14 times they’ve been double-digit favorites this season. They have been on fire offensively, scoring 78 or more points in 4 straight games, so they should have the capability of pulling away and covering this number.
The Mavericks only played one ranked team this season, and that was an 83-51 road loss to the Iowa State Cyclones Dec. 15. While the Mavs covered as 35.5-point underdogs, they’ll be seeing a significantly tighter spread here. They are 0-2 ATS the last 2 times they were ‘dogs of 7 or more points.
BACK ST. JOHN’S -18.5 (-110).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 148.5 (-115).
While St. John’s has been efficient offensively, it has thrived defensively. The Red Storm have held opponents to 66 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 and they are 15-18-1 O/U on the season. The Under is also 10-5 in their neutral and road games this season, including 6-2 in their last 8 on the road. So, they defend well away from home.
Omaha has gone Under in 3 of its last 6 games and has defended well too, holding its opponent to 61 or fewer in 2 of those. It is 1-2 O/U in games in which it has been an underdog of 15 or more.
Considering the trends, BACK UNDER 148.5 (-115).
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