The Texas Longhorns (3-2 overall, 2-2 Big 12) head to Boone Pickens Stadium Saturday for a conference showdown at the Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0, 3-0) at 4 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Texas-Oklahoma State college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Cowboys are No. 6 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Texas at Oklahoma State: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:24 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Texas +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Oklahoma State -162 (bet $162 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Texas +3.5 (-110) | Oklahoma State -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 58.5 (O: -115 | U: -106)
Texas at Oklahoma State: Three things to know
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Texas recovered from back-to-back losses, beating Baylor 27-16 last week. The Longhorns pushed as 11-point favorites after Baylor snuck in the backdoor with 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. QB Sam Ehlinger was solid, completing 15-of-23 passes for 270 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also added two touchdown runs.
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Oklahoma State picked up an impressive road victory as it beat the ranked Iowa State Cyclones 24-21, covering as 2.5-point favorites. The Cowboys leaned on All-American RB Chuba Hubbard, who had 25 carries for 139 yards and a touchdown.
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The Longhorns beat the Cowboys in last year’s meeting 36-30 but couldn’t cover as 7-point favorites. The win snapped Texas’s four-game losing streak in the series.
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Texas at Oklahoma State: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks
Prediction
Oklahoma State 34, Texas 27
Money line (ML)
Oklahoma State (-162) is better in high-leverage situations (third-down and red-zone conversion differential) and has played a more difficult strength of schedule than Texas (+135).
The Cowboys are the side I’m on. However, I am going to be cheap and PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because it’s a little too expensive.
Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME OKLAHOMA STATE -3.5 (-110). Texas’s run defense is pretty good (42nd in the country in opponent’s yards per game) but can be worn down by teams committed to the run.
In both of its losses, Texas allowed 200-plus rushing yards on 50-plus carries, which is a concern when going against Oklahoma State’s Big 12-leading ground game. The Cowboys run the ball at the seventh-highest rate in the nation.
Plus, the market has overrated the Longhorns (1-3-1 ATS) and underrated the Cowboys (3-1 ATS) all season long. Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Oklahoma State and the favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 Texas-Oklahoma State meetings.
Over/Under (O/U)
Regardless of how good Oklahoma State’s defense has been this season, Ehlinger is going to move the ball and this should be a breakout game for Oklahoma State’s offense.
Oklahoma State WR Tylan Wallace is back to leading the Big 12 in receiving yards after missing half of 2019 with a knee injury. He only caught five balls for 83 yards in last year’s meeting, but it was QB Spencer Sanders’s freshmen season. Wallace’s best game of his college career was against Texas in 2018 where he caught 10 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns.
Furthermore, the projected total of Texas-Oklahoma State last season was 72.5 and Saturday’s meeting has a 58.5 total. BetMGM is bugging to making this year’s total two touchdowns cheaper.
OVER 58.5 (-115) is the best bet for this game.
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