The 9-seed Missouri Tigers (16-9) face off with the 8-seed Oklahoma Sooners (15-10) Saturday in the first round of the West Regional at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The tip-off is set for 4:25 p.m. ET and will be airing on TNT. Below, we analyze the Missouri-Oklahoma odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
Oklahoma struggled at the end of its season but slid into the Big Dance because it played in the winningest conference in the nation.
The Sooners has lost six of their previous seven games with the only winning coming against an Iowa State team that didn’t have a single conference win and they failed to cover eight in a row.
The Tigers alternated between winning and losing in each of the past seven games, are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in the previous nine contests.
This is Missouri head coach Cuonzo Martin’s second NCAA Tournament appearance in his fourth-year on the job.
Oklahoma vs. Missouri: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Missouri -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Oklahoma -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Missouri +1 (-110) | Oklahoma -1 (-110)
- Over/Under: 138.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Oklahoma vs. Missouri: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Missouri 71, Oklahoma 66
Money line (ML)
PASS on the money line because the Tigers are the pick but why not take the point if it costs as much as Missouri’s money line? Obviously, we don’t want a Missouri 1-point loss but a push is better than a loss.
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Against the spread (ATS)
It would appear that MISSOURI +1 (-110) has been under-seeded in this tournament because it has a better resume than Oklahoma -1 (-110).
12 of Missouri’s games were played against teams in the NCAA Tournament and the Tigers started this season out 6-0 with victories including South Region 15-seed Oral Roberts (who just upset 2-seed Ohio State), Midwest Region 1-seed Illinois.
Don’t get me wrong, the Sooners have impressive wins too, but I’ll take the Tigers’ wins over them and, according to Ken Pom, Missouri is ranked 11th in experience.
Lastly, the sharp side of the market is barreling into Missouri, which has caused the Tigers to lose a point worth of value on the opening line.
GIMME MISSOURI +1 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Even though I like Missouri to win outright, Oklahoma’s defense will make it tough on the Tigers.
Missouri is a poor 3-point shooting team (ranked 259th in 3-point percentage) and gets to the free-throw line at the 37th-highest rate, but Oklahoma is 13th in defensive free-throw rate.
The Sooners do a really good job at packing the paint because of which OU is 61st in defensive 2-point shooting percentage but 354th in defensive 3-point shooting.
BET UNDER 138.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
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