Tag: Offseason Hypotheticals

Packers offseason hypotheticals: Failing to agree to new deal for RT Bryan Bulaga

Breaking down the implications of a scenario in which the Packers fail to re-sign RT Bryan Bulaga.

Welcome back to our return series on offseason hypotheticals where we hypothesize a Packers’ offseason move and then analyze the implications. The introduction provides a basic foundation of important offseason dates, the sequence of player acquisition, and the Packers’ current financial situation.

Previous editions: Signing WR Robby Anderson

The NFL season formally begins in September and ends in early February, but the foundation upon which the next Super Bowl-winner is built happens in the months between February and May.

On March 18, the NFL’s new league year will begin, which means the start of free agency. The Green Bay Packers opened up the checkbook last year and signed four free agents to lucrative contracts, the impact of which will be felt this offseason.

For practical purposes, a quick overview of the Packers’ cap situation. According to Over the Cap, the Packers enter the 2020 offseason with a projected $23.7 million in cap space. They can add $12.5 million in extra space by releasing Jimmy Graham and Lane Taylor, which seems likely. Once the draft class is accounted for – as well as a contingency budget for in-season signings – the Packers are probably still looking at, conservatively, around $20 million in cap space to add additional free agents.

After free agency follows the NFL draft, which takes place from April 23-25. The Packers have 10 overall selections, which includes two sixth-rounders and three seventh-rounders. The Packers have the 30th pick of each round and own just three picks in the top 100.

Between now and free agency (or the draft), Packers Wire will periodically analyze hypotheticals regarding player acquisitions, examining the immediate impacts of adding a certain player or position and then analyzing the corresponding butterfly effect.

The hypothetical

The Packers do not agree to terms on a contract extension for right tackle Bryan Bulaga. The long-time frontside protector for Aaron Rodgers leaves Green Bay and signs a three-year, $27.5 million contract, including $20 million guaranteed, with a different NFL team. Bulaga will average just over $9 million per year, which is around where Over the Cap and Spotrac project his value.

Immediate roster implications

The Packers retain their cap space but also add another hole in need of filling. In-house options include shifting Billy Turner to right tackle and inserting Lucas Patrick or Lane Taylor (if they don’t cut him) to guard. Brian Gutekunst doesn’t like the option. While he can provide Matt LaFleur with a long-term answer in April, Gutekunst opts to sign Jared Veldheer to another one-year contract worth $1.5 million.

Some additional context to consider: ESPN’s Bill Barnwell detailed that, in the last three seasons, Aaron Rodgers’ passer rating was 11.3 points higher with Bulaga in the lineup versus his replacement; however, Rodgers’ QBR (an ESPN metric) was actually lower with Bulaga in the lineup. It’s worth noting that a handful of those games featured either Jason Spriggs or Alex Light in Bulaga’s stead, both of whom proved to be inadequate NFL linemen. Veldheer proved to be a viable reserve tackle in his lone start against the Seahawks the playoffs.

The difference between Bulaga’s hypothetical average annual value of $9 million compared to Veldheer’s $1.5 million saves the Packers $7.5 million in space, which could then be used to sign a wide receiver like Robby Anderson, whose estimated value ranges anywhere from $8 million to $12 million per year, or an even more affordable option like Tajae Sharpe. The Packers could also choose to address the hole at inside linebacker, potentially spending big for a player like Cory Littleton.

One way or another the Packers would see a talent downgrade at tackle. If the organization believes Bulaga’s body is unlikely to hold up through a third contract – at least to the degree that the contract wouldn’t provide the team with adequate value – then the Veldheer swap may be a sound decision.

Draft implications

The Packers may have seen enough from Jared Veldheer this past season to pencil him in as a one or two-year stop-gap. He’s 32 years old and his play could crater at any moment. The Packers would have to elevate their search for their long-term right tackle.

Thankfully, this draft has plenty of good ones. Many of the top tackles will likely be gone by the Packers pick at No. 30; even so, the tackle depth suggests high-quality players should be around at the end of the first-round and into Day 2. The Packers may not have to draft a tackle at No. 30, but they’ll certainly need to add one in the top-100.

The Packers have needs at inside linebacker and wide receiver, too, and there’s no guarantee the draft will fall in such a way that they’ll be able to address direct replacements at those positions while also getting their tackle of the future. Not drafting a tackle in this scenario is playing with fire. Not hitting on that draft pick, a la Jason Spriggs, could spell long-term roster doom, not unlike the back-to-back Damarious Randall-Quinten Rollins whiff.

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Packers offseason hypotheticals: Signing WR Robby Anderson

Breaking down what it would mean if the Packers signed speedy receiver Robby Anderson in free agency.

The NFL season formally begins in September and ends in early February, but the foundation upon which the next Super Bowl-winner is built happens in the months between February and May.

On March 18, the NFL’s new league year will begin, which means the start of free agency. The Green Bay Packers opened up the checkbook last year and signed four free agents to lucrative contracts, the impact of which will be felt this offseason.

For practical purposes, a quick overview of the Packers’ cap situation. According to Over the Cap, the Packers enter the 2020 offseason with a projected $23.7 million in cap space. They can add $12.5 million in extra space by releasing Jimmy Graham and Lane Taylor, which seems likely. Once the draft class is accounted for – as well as a contingency budget for in-season signings – the Packers are probably still looking at, conservatively, around $20 million in cap space to add additional free agents.

After free agency follows the NFL draft, which takes place from April 23-25. The Packers have 10 overall selections, which includes two sixth-rounders and three seventh-rounders. The Packers have the 30th pick of each round and own just three picks in the top 100.

Between now and free agency (or the draft), Packers Wire will periodically analyze hypotheticals regarding player acquisitions, examining the immediate impacts of adding a certain player or position and then analyzing the corresponding butterfly effect.

The hypothetical

The Packers sign former New York Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson to a four-year, $45 million contract. Anderson will average $11.5 million a year. Spotrac estimates Anderson’s value slightly above, at $12 million per year; despite raw production not too dissimilar to Tyrell Williams, who signed with the Raiders last offseason at an average of $11 million per year. While $12 million feels high, the low supply of starting-quality receivers expected to reach the market might buoy Anderson’s value. That said, a receiver-rich draft class may dampen Anderson’s market.

Immediate roster implications

Singing Anderson would give the Packers an immediate starter opposite Davante Adams. He also provides the Packers with a much more reliable deep threat. We’ve since discovered that the Packers’ receiving corps is made up of a true No. 1 and a collection of JAGs. Allen Lazard, while a nice story, fits much better into a complementary No. 3 role. With Anderson in tow, the Packers are in a much better position to compete right away. It’s important to note that Aaron Rodgers demands a level of reliability from his receivers; it’s a difficult thing for receivers, especially rookie receivers, to earn. From that perspective, getting a proven pass catcher could give the Packers’ passing game the immediate jolt it needs.

Financial and UFA implications

Signing staring-quality receivers in free agency isn’t cheap. If the Packers sign Anderson to the contract stated in the hypothetical, the team will have slashed its cap space nearly in half (depending on the contract structure). This option means Bryan Bulaga likely walks unless he’s willing to come back on a contract well-below market value. The Packers are also looking to extend Kenny Clark. Some of the remaining $8.5 million can be used to pay Clark. Blake Martinez is also as good as gone. If the Packers are going to sign a veteran as a placeholder for Martinez’s spot, it’s likely going to have to be at a replacement-level contract, which means replacement-level talent.

Draft implications

Although the Packers signed a big-money free agent to address a need, they would be hard-pressed to pass on selecting another wide receiver in a draft that – concerning the draft’s positional depth at wide receiver – is the Mariana Trench. But signing Anderson likely moved receiver down the priority list a bit.

With Bulaga and Martinez likely gone, the Packers are playing with fire, specifically with the former gone without a clear viable replacement. As such, the Packers are probably looking for a player they believe is a plug-and-play Day 1 starter at right tackle.

Replacing Martinez becomes the next priority, though that doesn’t mean it becomes their second overall pick. Even so, the Packers aren’t guaranteed an opportunity to grab one of the top-rated linebackers, such as Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray or LSU’s Patrick Queen.

In summary, by patching the holes at receiver, the Packers are more than likely going to be fielding a team with clear positional holes; their propensity for neglecting the inside linebacker position means it could be another year with weak middle-of-the-field defense. And it could mean shaky frontside pass protection for Aaron Rodgers.

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