The Denver Nuggets (43-21) visit the Big D on Wednesday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off against the Dallas Mavericks (39-27) at the American Airlines Center. We analyze the Nuggets-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Mavericks at Nuggets: Key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (knee) out
- SG Seth Curry (ankle) out
- SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (illness) probable
- C Willie Cauley-Stein (illness) probable
- PG Jalen Brunson (shoulder) out
- PF Dwight Powell (Achilles) out
Nuggets
- C Bol Bol (foot) out
Mavericks at Nuggets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Wednesday at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Nuggets 122, Mavericks 104
Moneyline (ML)
These teams have played twice already this season and each game has been decided by a possession with the Nuggets the most recent meeting, 107-106, Jan. 8. The Mavericks were without defensive anchor, Kristaps Porzingis, and Nikola Jokic took advantage to the tune of 33 points on 12-of-20 shooting. That’s a bad sign for Dallas with Porzingis out again Wednesday. In their first meeting Oct. 29, Dallas had nine players score double figures (none more than 14) en route to a 109-106 victory in Denver.
The Nuggets are far healthier at the moment — no one from the Nuggets’ regular rotation is out — and beside the injuries above, the Mavericks have seen Luka Doncic miss games recently. Denver gives up the fourth-fewest points per game to point guards and Doncic has scored 21.5 PPG in four career games against the Nuggets. Doncic has needed to work for his 20+ points, shooting just .392 from the field and .200 from 3-point land against Denver.
I LIKE the NUGGETS -143.
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Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Since I like the Nuggets on the moneyline, I’ll LEAN toward the NUGGETS -2.5 (-110). It should be an either-or situation in terms of which bet to play; I don’t think you should bet both the moneyline and spread.
Anywho, somehow Dallas is worse ATS at home versus winning teams (3-9) then Denver is on the road against winning teams (5-7-1). The Mavericks lost straight up and against the spread in both games they were home dogs in but the Nuggets is only 7-10-1 ATS as a road favorite this season. The standout trend for me in the Mavericks-Nuggets matchup is Denver’s 6-3 ATS record when laying 1-2.5 points and Dallas’ 1-5 ATS mark when getting that many points.
Over/Under (O/U)
Denver likes to slow the game down and play through their All-Star big man, Jokic. The Nuggets are ranked 29th in pace of play, which is the main reason their offense is ranked just 20th in points per game. However, they are seventh in offensive rating and sixth in field-goal percentage, and I think they’ll execute against the Mavericks, pushing the game OVER 220.5 (-106).
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