Nuggets 76ers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Denver Nuggets (34-15) battle the Philadelphia 76ers (31-16) Saturday. Tip from Wells Fargo Center is set for 3 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. 76ers odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

This will be 1 of 2 matchups between these teams this season with the other battle coming in Denver March 27.

Denver lost to the Bucks 107-99 Wednesday, covering as a 12.5-point road underdog. The Nuggets are just 2-3 against the spread (ATS) over their last 5 games yet are 26-23 ATS this season. Denver ranks No. 2 in the NBA in field goal percentage (50.7%) and No. 8 in points per game (116.5).

The 76ers, on the other hand, beat the Nets 137-133 Wednesday, failing to cover as a 7-point home favorite. Philadelphia is 3-1 ATS over its last 4 yet 5-5 ATS over its last 10. It is 27-20 ATS on the season. The 76ers’ strength is offensive efficiency, sitting 8th in the league in field goal percentage (48.2%).

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Nuggets at 76ers odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | 76ers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +3.5 (-108) | 76ers -3.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 231.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Nuggets at 76ers key injuries

Nuggets

G Bruce Brown (knee) questionable
C Nikola Jokic (hamstring) probable
G Jamal Murray (hip) questionable
F Michael Porter Jr. (personal) questionable

76ers

C Joel Embiid (foot) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Nuggets at 76ers picks and predictions

Prediction

76ers 121, Nuggets 115

Moneyline

PASS.

The 76ers are 18-7 at home while the Nuggets are 12-11 on the road. The odds are justified, and they are just out of playable range. Look to the spread and total for value.

Against the spread

BET 76ERS -3.5 (-112).

Simply put, the 76ers have been better at home than the Nuggets have been on the road. Denver is just 10-13 ATS as the road team while Philadelphia is 15-9-1 ATS at home, tied for the 6th-best home covering rate.

The 76ers also have C Joel Embiid, who should be able to counter the dominance of C Nikola Jokic, who has triple-doubles in 4-straight games. On top of that, Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the league in opponents’ 3-point shooting (34.5%). The Nuggets rank No. 1 in 3-point field goal percentage (39.5%).

The strength-on-strength matchup there should bode well for Philadelphia to limit what Denver does best. That said, considering that and the locational aspect for both sides, back the 76ERS -3.5 (-112).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 231.5 (-108).

The 76ers play at a slow pace, which drives their total toward the lower end typically. However, they have gone Over in 8 of their last 10 and have scored 120 or more in 3 of their last 4. They are 28-19 O/U on the season.

Denver is 22-27 O/U and has one of the most efficient offenses in the league. They are 1-3 O/U in their last 4 games, but Jokic missed some time during the stretch. With Jokic back and the high-ceiling offensive firepower on the court, back the OVER 231.5 (-108).

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Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Denver Nuggets (40-28) travel to the City of Brotherly Love for a 7:30 p.m. ET game with the Philadelphia 76ers (41-25) at the Wells Fargo Center (ESPN). Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Denver has lost its past two games, both at home, to the Toronto Raptors Saturday (127-115) and the Golden State Warriors Friday (113-102). Over the last two weeks, the Nuggets are 4-3 straight up (SU) and 2-5 against the spread (ATS).

Philly has alternated between winning and losing over the past five games (3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS) with the latest being a 116-114 overtime victory against the Magic Sunday in Orlando, failing to cover as 11-point road favorites.

A Joel Embiid-less Sixers squad upset the Nuggets 103-89 in Denver Nov. 18 as 7.5-point road underdogs. The last time Embiid and Nuggets reigning MVP Nikola Jokic met was in December 2019. Embiid’s Sixers are 4-1 SU all-time versus Jokic and the Nuggets.

Nuggets at 76ers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:21 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Nuggets +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | 76ers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Against the spread: Nuggets +1.5 (-110) | 76ers -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Nuggets at 76ers key injuries

Nuggets

SF Aaron Gordon (foot) questionable
PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

76ers

None

[tipico]

Nuggets at 76ers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 116, 76ers 111

Money line

LEAN to the NUGGETS (+102) only because their spread is a much sharper player and Denver was +125 on the look-ahead so we’d be getting the worst of the number.

However, the Nuggets have a better winning percentage (18-13 SU) and net rating (plus-7.7) in “clutch” scenarios than the Sixers (20-15 SU with a plus-3.0 net rating). “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.

Also, Philly is still crafting its identity after acquiring James Harden a few weeks ago. On the other hand, there’s no question who’s the captain of Denver’s ship and I think the reigning MVP (Jokic) takes this season’s MVP favorite (Embiid) to school.

But since I prefer Denver’s spread, I only LEAN NUGGETS (+102).

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the NUGGETS +1.5 (-110) instead of or heavier than their ML because this is a more profitable spot for Denver.

For instance, the Nuggets are 10-7-1 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record and 11-9 ATS as road underdogs with a plus-2.6 ATS margin. The Sixers are 6-11 ATS at home versus winning teams and 10-15 ATS as home favorites with a minus-2.3 ATS margin.

Furthermore, Philly is playing the second of a back-to-back so there’s an outside chance either Embiid or Harden sits.

Finally, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market with a vast majority of the cash on Denver but more bets are placed on Philly, per VegasInsider.com. Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the money especially when it’s counter to the public.

The NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

PASS since I only lean toward the Over 221.5 (-115). A majority of the action is on the Over (per Pregame.com), but the total seems to be lowering from the opening number. This would indicate “Over 221.5 (-115)” could be a square bet.

For what it’s worth, Denver is 36-31-1 O/U (17-18 O/U on the road) and Philly is 29-36-1 O/U (13-20 O/U at home).

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