The No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0) meet the No. 15 Wisconsin Badgers (1-1) at Soldier Field in Chicago Saturday. Kickoff is set for noon ET. Below, we look at the Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Notre Dame eked past its first two opponents with a 41-38 overtime victory at Florida State as a 7-point favorite and then beat Toledo 32-29 as a 16.5-point favorite. The Fighting Irish took care of business in Week 3 against Purdue with a two-touchdown win as 7.5-point road favorites.
Wisconsin picked up a Week 2 victory 34-7 against Eastern Michigan as a 26-point home favorite and is coming off a bye week. The Badgers were upset 16-10 as 5.5-point home favorites in their season opener against then-No. 20 Penn State.
Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:09 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Notre Dame +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Wisconsin -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Notre Dame +5.5 (-108) | Wisconsin -5.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Notre Dame at Wisconsin odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Notre Dame 24, Wisconsin 20
Money line
Pretty much all of my analysis for Notre Dame-Wisconsin is located in “narrative-ville”.
I’m a sucker for the “revenge game” angle, especially in football, and man, this is a heck of a “revenge game” spot for Notre Dame’s quarterback.
Fighting Irish super senior QB Jack Coan is using an additional year of eligibility granted due to the COVID-altered 2020 season to play for Notre Dame as a Wisconsin transfer.
Coan was replaced in Wisconsin for current starter QB Graham Mertz prior to the start of last season and rode the bench after starting every game for the Badgers in 2019. You have to figure part of Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly’s pitch to Coan was the Fighting Irish’s Week 4 meeting with the Badgers.
I think Wisconsin’s football program is typically overrated by the market just like its basketball program. I can’t totally figure out why this is the case, but the proof is there.
Since Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst took the reigns in 2015, the Badgers are 10-16 overall with a minus-2.8 margin of victory, and 10-16 ATS with a minus-2.3 spread differential, against ranked opponents. Also, Wisconsin is 5-5 overall and 5-5 ATS in neutral-site games in that span.
On the other hand, Notre Dame has been a low-key national powerhouse in the Kelly era. The Fighting Irish haven’t won any national titles but have appeared in a few College Football Playoffs and are an NFL factory.
Notre Dame has the fourth-most active players in the NFL whereas Wisconsin is 18th. The Fighting Irish are 16-8 overall in neutral-site games and 14-10 ATS since Kelly was hired in 2010.
Maybe Wisconsin is getting a boost in the market because it’s coming off a bye week and has extra time to prep for this national TV showdown. However, Wisconsin is 4-3 overall and 3-4 ATS with a rest advantage since 2015. Since 2010, Notre Dame is 22-6 overall and 16-12 ATS with a rest disadvantage.
“LEAN” to NOTRE DAME (+190) for a half unit because I like the Fighting Irish plus the points in this spot.
Against the spread
Definitely BET NOTRE DAME +5.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of the money line because of the analysis above. If it’s either-or, I’d go with the Fighting Irish getting points instead of outright.
Stream college football games on ESPN+ by signing up here.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 45.5 (-112) because the defense is each teams’ best unit, Wisconsin is 4-0 to the Under in its last four against teams with a winning record and the Under has cashed in Notre Dame’s last four games on a neutral field.
That said, my predicted score aligns with the oddsmakers’ projected total and we are getting to the Under party a little late as the market has steamed this total down from the 47-point opening number.
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Florida / Georgia / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]