The No. 11 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-10) meet the third-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders (26-9) Sunday in the second round of the West Region at the Viejas Arena. Tip-off in San Diego is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (on TBS). Below, we look at the Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Notre Dame tipped off West Region action by beating the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 89-87 in double overtime Wednesday in a First Four game. The Fighting Irish then went on to upset the No. 6 seed Alabama Crimson Tide in a 78-64 first-round blowout Friday as 4-point underdogs.
Texas Tech plastered the 14the-seeded Montana State Bobcats 97-62 in the first round, easily covering as a 14.5-point favorite. The Red Raiders are 12-2 straight up (SU) with a plus-21.5 margin of victory and 8-6 against the spread (ATS) this season in non-conference play.
The Red Raiders are No. 11 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:07 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Notre Dame +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Texas Tech -370 (bet $370 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Notre Dame +7.5 (-105) | Texas Tech -7.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 132.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
[tipico]
Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas Tech 67, Notre Dame 63
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” toward Notre Dame (+270) since I like the Fighting Irish plus the points and, generally, will “sprinkle” on an underdog’s ML when betting it to cover the spread.
However, Texas Tech’s top-ranked defensive efficiency should be enough to earn a berth to the Sweet 16.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: March Madness bracket betting bonanza
Against the spread
BET NOTRE DAME +7.5 (-105) for 1 unit.
Texas Tech doesn’t shoot it well enough to win by 7.5 points or more and it allows too many 3-point attempts.
For instance, the Red Raiders are 257th in 3-point shooting and 240th in free-throw shooting percentages at 32.3% and 69.8%, respectively. I have a tough time laying more than a touchdown with Texas Tech if it cannot put away teams at the foul line.
Furthermore, Notre Dame is eighth in 3-point percentage (38.3%) and Texas Tech is 66th in defensive 3-point shooting percentage (31.4%) but ranks 305th in opponent’s 3-point attempt rate (24.3 per game).
The Fighting Irish are going to keep this close if the Red Raiders allow them to chuck 3-pointers. Also, a backdoor cover is wide open for a Notre Dame team that shoots it that well from the field.
NOTRE DAME +7.5 (-105) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 132.5 (-115) because there’s a Pros versus Joe’s scenario in the betting market for the total and Notre Dame’s offense could be in serious trouble if it doesn’t knock down 3s.
According to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the cash is on the Under, while roughly 70% of the action is on the Over. Typically, in sports betting, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s counter to the public since the “sharps” wager a lot more dough than your average Joe.
Plus, both teams do a good job cleaning the glass on defense so there should be a lot of one-and-done possessions, Texas Tech ranks 25th in 2-point shooting percentage (55.5%) and both teams play at a below-average pace.
Notre Dame’s spread is my preferred play, but there’s some value on UNDER 132.5 (-115).
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