The Northwestern Wildcats (5-0 overall, 5-1 Big Ten) visit the Michigan State Spartans (1-3, 1-3) Saturday for a Big Ten matchup in Spartan Stadium at 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Northwestern-Michigan State college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Wildcats are No. 13 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Northwestern at Michigan State: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Northwestern -556 (bet $556 to win $100) | Michigan State +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
- Against the spread/ATS: Northwestern -13.5 (-106) | Michigan State +13.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 41.5 (O: -106 | U: -115)
Northwestern at Michigan State: Three things to know
- Northwestern earned one of the biggest victories in program history with an upset of then-No. 12 ranked Wisconsin 17-7 at home last week. The Wildcats closed as 7-point underdogs at kickoff.
- Michigan State’s previous game with Maryland was canceled due to a COVID outbreak in the Terrapins program. The week before, the Spartans were shut out 24-0 at home against Indiana Nov. 14.
- The Wildcats are hoping to avenge last season’s 31-10 loss at home to the Spartans. Northwestern won the previous two meetings and has covered three of its past four games against Michigan State.
Special Big Ten Betting Promotion!
Bet $1 on ANY Big Ten team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if ANY BIG TEN team scores a touchdown this week!
Place your legal, online sports bets in CO, IN, NJ, TN and WV at BetMGM, The King of Sportsbooks. New customer offer, terms and conditions apply. Bet now at BetMGM!
Northwestern at Michigan State: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Northwestern 26, Michigan State 10
Money line (ML)
This is the ultimate strength on weakness matchup with Northwestern’s elite defense going against a trash Michigan State offense. Northwestern is 2nd in the country in opponent’s points per play, 13th in opponent’s yards per game and 8th in opponent’s third-down conversion percentage.
Michigan State is 124th in points per play, 113th in yards per game and 96th in third-down conversion percentage. The Spartans are 123rd out of 127 charted teams in havoc allowed and Northwestern’s defense is 31st in havoc created.
It would be very unfortunate if Northwestern had its Big Ten title game hopes jeopardized by losing its first game to an inferior Michigan State team.
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
Against the spread (ATS)
I loathe the idea of laying close to two touchdowns on the road in a conference game. But since 2016, Northwestern has the best ATS record in the Big Ten (31-23-3), the best ATS record against conference opponents (27-13-2) and is 4-2-1 in games where it is a road favorite.
It’s hard to argue that the backdoor cover is open for a Michigan State team that’s scored a combined 7 points in its previous two games, both against teams that don’t have Northwestern’s defense.
According to Pregame.com, 94% of the money and 78% of the bets placed are on the Wildcats, which moved the number from a 10.5-point line to the current price.
I’ll roll with the sharps and public and TAKE NORTHWESTERN -13.5 (-106) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Northwestern’s 0-5 Over/Under record is so Northwestern. Since 2016, the Wildcats have the 4th-highest Under percentage in the nation and have a 17-24-1 O/U record against Big Ten teams.
The one caveat in this handicap is that Michigan State is minus-9 in turnover differential and it could give Northwestern points. However, the Under is being steamed because the market knows how this game should typically play out.
GIMME UNDER 41.5 (-115) for 1 unit.
Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional college football coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Auburn / Florida / Georgia / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]