What does Northern Illinois loss mean for Notre Dame?

Notre Dame probably would’ve been better off with an NIU win Saturday.

Just two weeks after coming into South Bend and beating Notre Dame in what might be the biggest upset of the 2024 college football season, the No. 23 Northern Illinois Huskies lost to Buffalo, 23-20, in overtime. At home.

This loss could have implications for Notre Dame’s playoff chances, though with just four games played, there’s still much more to figure out.

Almost every pundit and observer thought that not only would Notre Dame beat the Huskies, but the Irish would do it handily. We all know what happened next: Notre Dame lost 16-14.

The questions being asked after that game were these: Is NIU that good? Is Notre Dame overrated? Did Notre Dame simply have a bad day, perhaps by overlooking an underdog opponent?

Those questions remain unanswered. Northern Illinois jumped into the rankings after beating Notre Dame but also had the following week off. It’s too early to tell if a close loss to Buffalo means NIU isn’t as good as people thought. Neither does it help us determine if NIU is a playoff contender or if Notre Dame had a bad day — or both.

The following weeks will bring answers.

What does the NIU loss to Buffalo mean for Notre Dame?
Northern Illinois Huskies kicker Kanon Woodill kicks the game winning field goal in the fourth quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

It would probably be good for Notre Dame if the Huskies are a true contender since it makes the loss to NIU look worse in the eye of any playoff decision-makers. Because the Irish are independent, they have no chance at an automatic bid via a conference championship.

While the Irish were considered, at the season’s start, as a possible playoff entrant with 1 or 2 losses, that depended on whom they lost to. Before the season kicked off, most observers would’ve excused an Irish loss to Florida State, USC or maybe Louisville. However, the conventional thinking since the loss to NIU is that Notre Dame will need to run the table to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame, for its part, hasn’t answered questions, either. The 66-7 drubbing of Purdue wasn’t particularly surprising, and the Irish once again started slowly at home against a Mid-American Conference team on Saturday, though this time they pulled away to beat Miami of Ohio.

There are other teams factoring into this equation. Florida State looks bad, so a win against the Seminoles no longer looks impressive. USC fell to Michigan on Saturday. Other upsets could happen, leaving a bunch of top 20 teams with one or two losses at season’s end.

Still, the NIU loss to Buffalo will likely hurt Notre Dame by making its loss to the Huskies look worse — unless NIU has a strong run to the finish line.

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Buffalo takes down Northern Illinois in overtime

Buffalo went to Illinois and defeated NIU in MAC play

That loss to Northern Illinois by Notre Dame isn’t looking any better for the Fighting Irish after Saturday.

NIU played host to the Buffalo Bulls in a MAC game and were upended, 23-20, in overtime.

Buffalo’s winning margin came on a 37-yard field goal by Upton Bellenfant.

The Bulls improved to 3-1 and the Huskies are 2-1. It was the second time in school history Buffalo beat a ranked opponent.

For Northern Illinois, Kanon Woodill, who booted the game-winner at then No. 5 Notre Dame, missed a pair of field goal tries, including a 42-yarder that was blocked in overtime.

Trio of ranked teams on upset watch heading into Week 4

Which ranked college football teams could get upset in Week 4?

Conference play is just getting underway for many of college football’s premier programs, which often leads to closer games and more upsets as the true contenders separate themselves from the pretenders.

While most of the top 25 programs are favored in Week 4, some by massive margins, there are three ranked teams that seem particularly in danger of losing to an unranked opponent.

Those three teams are highlighted here, starting with a late night Big 12 battle:

No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats

At BYU Cougars (9/21 at 10:30 PM ET)

A late night showdown in Provo against the 3-0 BYU Cougars is not an enviable matchup for anyone, and could spell trouble for Kansas State – who barely snuck past Tulane in Week 2.

Avery Johnson and the Wildcats stellar defense have kept them in the top 25 and as a favorite in the Big 12 this season, but BYU looks much improved from last year and has already won a pair of quality road games against SMU and Wyoming. Will BYU take down the Wildcats late on Saturday night, and if so could it put the Cougars on the map as a real contender in the Big 12?

No. 19 Louisville Cardinals

vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9/21 at 3:30 PM ET)

Louisville vs Georgia Tech is one of the most compelling ACC matchups of the young season. The Yellow Jackets dispatched Florida State in Dublin in the first game of the season, and are already about to play their fifth game of the year – with a three point loss to Syracuse the only blemish so far.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 2-0 with blowout wins over Jacksonville State and Austin Peay – two programs that put up little fight. Will Louisville and quarterback Tyler Shough be ready for the physical style of Georgia Tech?

No. 23 Northern Illinois Huskies

vs. Buffalo Bulls (9/21 at 3:30 PM ET)

Northern Illinois snuck into the top 25 after taking down then No. 5 Notre Dame in Week 2. The Huskies have now had an extra week between games, and with another matchup against a power conference opponent looming on September 28 at NC State, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them looking ahead rather than focusing on this week’s task at hand: the Buffalo Bulls.

Buffalo is 2-1 on the year, defeating Lafayette and UMass handily but getting smoked by Missouri, 38-0. The Bulls are a very good defensive team who could make life difficult on the Huskies, and this has all the makings of a classic #Maction matchup.

Riley Leonard explains the difference between this week and last for Notre Dame

Leonard sees the difference

Notre Dame football has been a Mr. Jekyll and Dr. Hyde situation over the last two weeks.

The Irish struggles led to a home upset to Northern Illinois last week, but on Saturday they righted the ship and trounced Purdue on the road 66-7. It was a stark contrast in performance for the Blue and Gold, which left many wondering what exactly happened last weekend.

Starting quarterback [autotag]Riley Leonard[/autotag] gave his best explanation in the difference following the big win over the Boilermakers, claiming that he had a big issue handling the success. He showed maturity in saying that “you can’t get too high, can’t get too low” after a performance like this.

The confidence that head coach [autotag]Marcus Freeman[/autotag] and his teammates instilled in him during the week “built me up,” said Leonard. He wanted to prove himself all over again against Purdue.

It’s safe to say that it was accomplished for both himself and Notre Dame on Saturday.

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Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock raves about Xavier Watts, Marcus Freeman

Hammock continues to show love to the Irish

This week we have seen something that we don’t normally see from opposing coaches, a friendship was formed.

While Northern Illinois did upset Notre Dame last Saturday, the two head coaches have seemingly established a quick bond. Not only did [autotag]Thomas Hammock[/autotag] share information with [autotag]Marcus Freeman[/autotag], but on Friday he took to social media and raved about the Irish coach and safety [autotag]Xavier Watts[/autotag].

Hammock quoted a post singling out the stars almost tip-drill interception, saying “they showed those types of plays on tape which means they are coached extremely well.” The NIU coach didn’t need to go out of his way to say anything, but you can see the two have each other’s backs.

It’s become very clear the two coaches are extremely friendly, and hopefully it’s not just a one-sided relationship.

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Marcus Freeman said Notre Dame believed the hype

Can’t let a good win get to your head

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman told ESPN earlier this week that the Fighting Irish fell to Northern Illinois in a massive upset because his team believed the hype it generated after a tough win at Texas A&M.

This author had that same thought the instant NIU blocked a second Mitch Jeter field-goal attempt to seal the Huskies’ win.

After beating the Aggies in a hostile environment on the road in the season opener, Notre Dame was being penciled in for a home game in the first round of the College Football Playoff. College players are human and can’t fully isolate themselves from media, whether it’s the news media or social media.

Not only that, but this Notre Dame squad has some relatively inexperienced players at key positions. That’s a recipe for players to start believing that they’ll roll out of bed and win, especially against an unheralded team like NIU.

It’s also a recipe for the Irish to underestimate an opponent. The Huskies might be a contender for the MAC championship — they are now ranked in the AP Top 25 after beating Notre Dame.

Marcus Freeman knows Notre Dame believed the hype.
Sep 7, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman walks to the sideline in the second quarter against the Northern Illinois Huskies at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

“This is the first time in my three years as a head coach that we have won the big game early in the season,” Freeman said. “Two losses to Ohio State and then all of a sudden, we win and everybody says, ‘Hey, you’re going to the playoff. You’ve got an easy schedule.’ We all hear it, and I think we started to believe that.”

“There is a physical approach to preparing for a game, and I think physically we prepared the right way,” he said, “but there’s also a mental approach and a mindset that you have to have every single week, and I think that’s where we failed.”

It’s good that Freeman is aware of the problem and the part it played in one of the worst losses in program history. Now it has to get fixed — or Notre Dame will find itself outside the playoff looking in. And Freeman might find himself unemployed.

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There’s an interesting development involving Notre Dame, Northern Illinois and Purdue

What do you think of this?

It’s no secret that coaches share information with others, and that might be the case for Notre Dame and Northern Illinois.

The Huskies are coming off an upset of the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium, and now it looks like the two coaches are exchanging information after an interview on Pardon My Take.

NIU head coach [autotag]Thomas Hammock[/autotag] told them that he’s been sharing information about Purdue with [autotag]Marcus Freeman[/autotag]. “I want him to do well, for obvious reasons, and just because we competed, don’t mean we can’t help each other or try to assist each other, to make each other better,” he told the podcast.

Pro Football Focus ranks Notre Dame higher than either major poll
COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS – AUGUST 31: Head Coach Marcus Freeman of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish looks on prior to the game against the Texas A&M Aggies Kyle Field on August 31, 2024 in College Station, Texas. (Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images)

While the Huskies haven’t played Purdue since 2013, it highly unlikely what Hammock will help with would make much of a difference on the field this weekend. In my eyes, this has more to do with how to prepare your team, establishing culture and general coaching ideas.

It’s great to see the two form a friendship, although the Irish wish it was under different circumstances.

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Notre Dame leads list of crushed College Football Playoff dreams

Another influential writer is suggesting Notre Dame needs to win out.

One of the leading voices in college football is piling on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish after the team’s poor showing against Northern Illinois.

The fallout from the 16-14 loss to a then-unranked MAC team continues.

Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde has a weekly series with the 12 teams that had their playoff dreams crushed, and Notre Dame leads his series this week.

“Following up a hard-nosed victory at the Texas A&M Aggies with this dud of a home opener immediately increases the heat on Freeman for the rest of this season,” Forde writes.

Notre Dame's loss to NIU may have crushed their playoff dreams.
Northern Illinois celebrates scoring a touchdown during a NCAA college football game between Notre Dame and Northern Illinois at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024, in South Bend.

It’s been a theme in the days following the stunning loss — can Notre Dame, the same team that seemed guaranteed a playoff spot just days before playing NIU, qualify?

What happens against Purdue will start to determine the answer. Until then, the analysts and pundits can merely speculate.

It’s tricky, since both sides can be argued, and since Notre Dame doesn’t have a chance for an automatic bid via a conference championship.

The Irish can start providing answers on Saturday.

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Here’s why Notre Dame will — or won’t — make the College Football Playoff

The arguments about Notre Dame’s playoff chances continue — and they will until the ball is kicked against Purdue.

Is Notre Dame in or out of the College Football Playoff? It’s the question that’s being bandied about after the Fighting Irish’s huge loss to NIU.

In truth, there’s no way to know until the rest of the season unfolds. We’re just two weeks in and arguments can be made both ways. Notre Dame could also be helped or hurt by how other teams do going forward.

CBS Sports took a look at both the argument for and the argument against the Irish in a point/counterpoint post between writers Will Backus and Shehan Jeyarajah. Backus backed (pun intended, sorry) the Irish and Jeyarajah argued the other side.

Notre Dame football is on the wrong end of a home-favorite stat
Northern Illinois celebrates after wining a NCAA college football game 16-14 against Notre Dame at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024, in South Bend.

Here’s some of what Backus said: “It’s not like 10 more wins aren’t attainable for the Irish, either. They’ll have a chance to pad their résumé against ranked teams like No. 19 Louisville and No. 11 USC. Though Florida State has lost its luster, beating the Seminoles still resonates”

And Jeyarajah: “Realistically, the path is for Notre Dame — a team that just stumbled against a MAC team — to win 10 straight games, including tricky matchups like Georgia Tech, Army and No. 19 Louisville. Then, it has to hope that these wins actually remain impressive by the end of the year. And then even on top of that, it has to hope that every at-large team in the country finishes with multiple losses.”

Who do you think is right? How will it all play out?

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Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck has thoughts on Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois

Fleck still loves his alma mater

Notre Dame football’s loss to Northern Illinois this past weekend sent waves across all of college football.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian used the upset as motivation for this team, showing his players clips of them game and letting them know they have to earn everything on the field.

Former Huskies wide receiver and current Minnesota Gophers head coach [autotag]P.J. Fleck[/autotag] had a bit of a different response. His college roommate is current NIU head coach [autotag]Thomas Hammock[/autotag], and he went on to explain how he has built the program starting with they were in their playing years. Fleck was extremely complimentary of his former classmate, and the success they have had.

Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

It’s unfortunate for the Irish that they were on the wrong end of this upset, and they’ll need to address all those issues this week as they prepare for an angry Purdue team. Hopefully, Notre Dame gets back to its winning ways on Saturday.

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