In Sunday’s FCS Championship Game, the North Dakota State Bison (12-2) take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (13-1) at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The defending champion Bison topped Montana State in Frisco last season, as North Dakota State posted its 4th FCS national title in the past 5 seasons, and its 9th national title overall, just since 2011.
South Dakota State has never won a national title, but it was runner-up to Sam Houston in May 2021 during the COVID season of 2020-21. This will be SDSU’s first game in Frisco in front of a full crowd, too, although it played at Iowa this season, so it won’t be fazed by a large crowd.
SDSU ousted defending national runner-up Montana State 39-18 to get to Frisco, and it has won 13 straight games, including a 23-21 win at North Dakota State Oct. 15. The Jackrabbits’ only loss was their opener, a 7-3 decision at Iowa Sept. 3.
QB Mark Gronowski led the Jackrabbits completing 65.1% of his passes for 2,744 yards and 23 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions. He can tuck it and run, too, going for 351 yards and 11 TDs. RB Isaiah Davis is a force on the ground, rushing for 1,348 yards with 14 TDs.
North Dakota State dismissed Incarnate World in a wild FCS semifinal, winning 35-32. Since the October loss to the Jacks, the Bison have rattled off 7 straight wins, with 5 of those victories by 17 or more points.
The Bison will be looking to run, using RBs Kobe Johnson (902 rushing yards, 7.6 yards per carry, 8 TD), TaMerik Williams (679 yards, 7.4 YPC, 8 TD) and FB Hunter Luepke (619 yards, 6.3 YPC, 9 TD). QB Cam Miller, who passed for 1,715 yards, 11 TDs and just 3 INTs can also run it, going for 497 yards on the ground with a team-high 15 rushing scores.
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North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:12 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): North Dakota State +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | South Dakota State -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Dakota State +5 (-109) | South Dakota State -5 (-111)
- Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -109 | U: -111)
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North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State picks and predictions
Prediction
North Dakota State 25, South Dakota State 23
Moneyline
NORTH DAKOTA STATE (+180) is a tremendous value at this price as it’s a chance to nearly double up. The Bison have appeared in 9 of the past 11 national title games, and they have never lost.
South Dakota State has had an amazing season, including the regular-season win at North Dakota State in a game the Jackrabbits trailed 21-7 at the half.
Will the Jackrabbits beat the Bison twice this season and hand them their 1st loss in a title game?
I don’t think so. Back the defending champs.
Against the spread
If you want to be less risky and take some points for insurance, NORTH DAKOTA STATE +5 (-109) is still a good play.
When these teams faced off earlier in October, South Dakota State went on the road and won by just 2 points.
The Jackrabbits defense ranks No. 1 in the nation, allowing just 83.0 rushing yards per game on the ground, while the Bison offense rank 3rd with 273.3 rushing YPG. The line that wins this battle will be the national champion. I expect that to be the Bison.
Over/Under
OVER 47.5 (-112) is the lean, ever so slightly.
Both of these teams can score. SDSU was good for 33.4 PPG, while NDSU went for 35.3 PPG.
Both teams are very good on defense, too, with the Jacks allowing just 15.4 PPG and the Bison yielding 18.4 PPG.
Which way will this game go?
The last time they faced each other, we saw a total of 44 points. Expect a total in the upper 40’s here. It won’t be a shootout, but it also won’t be a defensive slog.
This game will come down to the final possession to cash an Over ticket.
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