The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-1, 1-0 ACC) and the Miami Hurricanes (2-2, 0-0) meet for a conference game Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. Kickoff is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the North Carolina vs. Miami odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
UNC rebounded after a 45-32 loss at Notre Dame Sept. 24 by paddling Virginia Tech 41-10 at home last Saturday to cover a 9.5-point number. The Heels have covered 3 of their last 4 outings overall and have cashed the Under at a 2-1 clip in the previous 3 games.
Miami has had 2 weeks to stew about an embarrassing 45-31 loss against Middle Tennessee at home Sept. 24. The Hurricanes were favored by 25.5 points in that game. The Canes have posted a 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS mark in 3 games vs. FBS teams this season.
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North Carolina at Miami odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:26 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): North Carolina +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Miami -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina +3.5 (-110) | Miami -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 66.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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North Carolina at Miami picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 38, Miami 33
Moneyline
There is very little to like about Miami (-180) after losing to MTSU last time out. Perhaps anger is a motivating factor, but even with 2 weeks to prepare for NORTH CAROLINA (+155), the Tar Heels are the value play here.
UNC has scored 32 or more points in all 5 games this season, and the defense looked a little better against Virginia Tech last time out. Are the Heels complete? No. But they also haven’t lost to a mid-tier Conference USA team this season, so take your chances with the better team.
Against the spread
NORTH CAROLINA +3.5 (-110) is a strong play if you’re not feeling it straight up.
UNC is 3-1 ATS in the past 4 games overall, while Miami is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 at home, and 2-5 ATS in the previous 7 against winning teams.
UNC has also covered at a 5-2 ATS clip in the previous 7 in this series, with the ‘dog coming through in 5 of the past 6 meetings.
Over/Under
OVER 66.5 (-107) is the play. UNC scores a lot of points, and it allows a lot of points. Watching Tar Heels games is like watching esports players play video games.
Miami’s numbers on offense aren’t bad either, going for 35.0 PPG to rank 42nd in the nation while posting 452.3 total yards per game to rank 37th overall. This team has 30 or more points in 3 of its 4 games this season, so the scoreboard operator had better be ready.
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