The North Carolina Tar Heels (16-11, 8-8 ACC) face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-17, 2-14) in South Bend Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the North Carolina vs. Notre Dame odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
This will be a rematch of an 81-64 home win for the Tar Heels as 12-point favorites on Jan. 7. Since then, both teams have struggled.
UNC is 5-6 since beating the Irish and is 1-5 in February. It has lost its last 2 games by 8 points each to Miami and N.C. State after defeating Clemson by 20 on Feb. 11.
Notre Dame is on a 5-game losing streak and is 2-9 since the loss to UNC. Despite the losses, the Irish have been keeping games close. Only 1 of the 5 losses in the current streak was by more then 6 points and despite their struggles, Notre Dame is 10-7 at home. UNC is 2-7 on the road.
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North Carolina at Notre Dame odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 10:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): North Carolina -290 (bet $290 to win $100) | Notre Dame +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina -6.5 (-105) | Notre Dame +6.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 148.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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North Carolina at Notre Dame picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 73, Notre Dame 68
Moneyline
PASS.
UNC on the moneyline might just be the safest play in this game. The spread is tough and so is the total. But I am not willing to risk -290 to bet on it. Nor should you. If you want to make a play on this number, add it in as part of a larger parlay to get better value.
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Against the spread
NOTRE DAME +6.5 (-115).
Only 1 of Notre Dame’s last 5 losses would have been larger than this spread.
All the trends favor Notre Dame. UNC is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 overall games, 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams with winning home records and are 0-7 ATS in its last 7 Wednesday games.
The Tar Heels have not been covering and they will fail to do so again Wednesday on the road.
Over/Under
UNDER 148.5 (-115).
Both teams come into this game struggling to score. UNC has gone Under in 5 of its last 6 road games. Notre Dame is 7-1-1 to the Under in its last 9 games following an ATS victory.
Both UNC and Notre Dame are terrible on defense. UNC ranks 261st at 72.6 points per game while Notre Dame is 247th at 72 PPG. It will not matter in this game as both will find it difficult to find the basket and the 148.5 number will not be threatened. As long as this total stays above 145.5, I like the Under.
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