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Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes took center stage in the 2024 All-Star Game, pitching a perfect 1st inning. The rookie phenom hit 100 mph twice. He is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a 12.1 K/9 over 11 starts this season. His 4-seam fastball is averaging an absurd 99.1 mph.
As such, Skenes is a massive favorite (-1200) to win NL Rookie of the Year, per BetMGM Sportsbook. There is some serious risk here, though. He has thrown 66 1/3 innings in the majors, 27 1/3 innings in the minors (Triple-A Indianapolis) and another inning in the All-Star Game for a total of 94 2/3 innings since March 30 — and we’re not even counting spring training.
He threw 136 innings between his senior season at LSU and the minor leagues last year. So, realistically, we’re looking at a 145-150 inning limit, which leaves him with roughly 50-55 innings to go.
One more thing to consider, Skenes has had a heavy pitch count through his 11 starts, averaging 97.4 pitches per outing with 4 eclipsing 100. That could lead the Pirates to limit his innings even more. The Pirates are just 1½ games back from a Wild Card spot, which means they could skip him more frequently after the All-Star break so he’s available down the stretch. That could lead to a dip in production.
Throw out the pandemic-shortened 2020 season where Brewers RP Devin Williams won NL ROY, and Shohei Ohtani‘s 2018 in which he mostly won with his bat with the Angels, we haven’t had pitcher win ROY since Tigers SP Michael Fulmer did it in 2016. He had an OK season at 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA, but his only competition was Yankees C Gary Sanchez, who hit 20 homers but was penalized for only having 201 at-bats (53 games). Fulmer pitched 159 innings (26 starts), and the voters tend to side with guys that play more.
In 2022, Braves RHP Spencer Strider had an electric season, going 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 202 K’s in 131 2/3 innings (20 starts, 11 relief appearances). He lost to teammate OF Michael Harris Jr., who had a .297-19-64 slash line in 414 at-bats. Strider’s line looks very close to what Skenes could wind up with, but does the Pirates rookie have the competition for the award?
Below, we analyze the 2024 MLB National League Rookie of the Year odds from BetMGM Sportsbook and make the best suggestion among our expert MLB picks and predictions.
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2024 NL Rookie of the Year odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday, July 17, at 5:30 p.m. ET.
- RHP Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (-1200)
- OF Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres (+500)
- LHP Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs (+2800)
- RHP Gavin Stone, Los Angeles Dodgers (+4000)
- 1B Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs (+4000)
- SS Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals (+5000)
For full list, see BetMGM Sportsbook.
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NL Rookie of the Year best bet
1B Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs (+4000)
The 26-year-old 2019 1st-round pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers is coming on strong. His numbers seem pretty pedestrian at .271 with 12 homers and 36 RBIs. However, since the calendar turned to June, Busch is hitting .310 with 4 homers and 13 RBIs over 126 at-bats. Before June, he hit .241 with 8 homers and 23 RBIs in 166 at-bats.
Busch adds a bit defensively as well with 4 outs above average, which is 5th among MLB first basemen. This contributes to his 2.4 WAR this season. He is clearly seeing the ball well, and if he can improve on his power output, a line like .280 with 25 homers, 80 RBIs could be enough in a full season to overtake Skenes. For the potential $4,000 return on a $100 bet, this is the best bang for your buck.
NL Rookie of the Year notables
LHP Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs (+2800)
Imanaga was one of the best pitchers in baseball the first couple of months of the season. He reached the All-Star break at 8-2 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. He has allowed 32 earned runs in 97 innings, and 17 of those runs came in 2 bad starts.
Take away those starts, and he’s 8-0 with a 1.51 ERA. He’s 30 years old and isn’t likely to have any kind of innings restrictions. If he can chip away at that ERA and finish the season with 180-plus innings, he could sway the voters his way.
SS Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals (+5000)
Winn doesn’t get enough national recognition, but he has been so much more than the Cards thought they were getting this season. He has an electric arm with great range at shortstop, and he has become the team’s leadoff hitter at .284 with 5 homers, 33 RBIs and 9 steals.
Winn is the total package, which is why he has a 3.7 WAR on the season. That ranks him 17th in baseball just behind Dodgers SS Mookie Betts and Phillies 1B Bryce Harper. Winn is going to have to produce more power or have a better OBP than .332 to have a shot at winning, but he has been in the bigs all year. With such a high WAR, he could snag some of the new-age voters’ appeal.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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