Tag: NFL Week 8

Fantasy football free-agent forecast: Week 8

Know which players to pick up heading into Week 8 of the fantasy football season.

Free-agent recommendations refer to 12-team leagues, unless specifically stated otherwise. FAAB $ amounts are based on a $100 budget.

Bye weeks: Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Football Team

Fantasy football waiver wire targets

Quarterbacks

1-week plug & play

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Short and sweet, because he’s owned in about two-thirds of leagues polled, but if Garoppolo is on the wire in your league, consider him a fine play vs. the league’s worst defense of quarterbacks. Even if the rushing touchdowns by QBs are removed from the stats against Seattle, we’re looking at a top-five opponent.

Availability: 33%
FAAB: $3-4

Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions

The Lions have permitted quarterbacks an average of 23.9 fantasy points per game, including four of six quarterbacks with four or more passing scores — a fifth one scored twice if rushing TDs are included, but that’s hardly Rivers’ game. Indy returns from its bye week, so there’s a good chance Rivers is available after his three-TD performance in Week 6. The coaching staff had extra time to prepare, and the Colts’ balanced offensive abilities should keep Detroit on its heels. Rivers has potential for at least 275 yards and two scores — more than acceptable if you’re without Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew or Deshaun Watson this week.

Availability: 41%
FAAB: $2-3

Running backs

Priority Free Agent

Carlos Hyde, Seattle Seahawks

Chris Carson suffered what is being called a mid-foot sprain, which could have season-long ramifications. Pending MRI results, the dreaded Lisfranc injury can be devastating, and even a more mild foot injury is sure to keep him out a few games. Hyde looked refreshed and healthy in Week 7 coming off of the bench, finishing with 76 offensive yards and a score on 18 touches. The Seahawks have a mixed bag of a schedule ahead, facing San Fran, at Buffalo, at the LA Rams and then back home for Arizona again in a month. Should Carson be lost for the season, Hyde is a strong RB2 candidate the rest of the way.

Availability: 48%
FAAB: $15-20

1-week plug & play/grab & stash

JaMycal Hasty, San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle isn’t terrible vs. the position like it is against receivers, but some of the positive stats in favor of its defense of running backs is due to being worked by wideouts. Hasty was a mildly intriguing acquisition last week but still remains available in more than half of leagues polled. He played a reserve role behind Jeff Wilson Jr. in a rout vs. the New England Patriots. In Week 8, however, with Raheem Mostert on IR, and Wilson certain to miss extended action with a high-ankle sprain of his own, the explosive Hasty should get more action. He will share touches with Jerick McKinnon. Be aware Hasty’s role will be short-lived with Tevin Coleman (knee) close to returning (likely Week 9) and Mostert being eligible to return after two more games.

Availability: 53%
FAAB: $4-5

grab & stash

Wayne Gallman, New York Giants

The G-men lost Devonta Freeman (ankle) in their last contest, and it’s unclear what his status will be heading into a Monday Night Football contest vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In the event Freeman — who has been brittle in the second half of his career — misses extended time, Gallman belongs on rosters. He ran for only 34 yards on 10 carries in Week 7 but scored once, and Gallman chipped in five receptions for 20 yards. That said, this week’s matchup is horrendous, and he’s a backup in all settings.

Availability: 94%
FAAB: $0-2

[lawrence-newsletter]

Wide receivers

Priority Free Agent

Rashard Higgins, Cleveland Browns

Odell Beckham Jr. (knee) is done for the year with a torn ACL, and the Higgins bandwagon still has a few open seats. He and Baker Mayfield demonstrated a connection in Mayfield’s 2018 rookie season, but the addition of OBJ squashed any chance of fantasy relevance for Higgins since. In Week 7, Higgins caught all six of his targets for 110 yards. Ahead, the Raiders offer a brilliant matchup before a Week 9 bye. After the vacation, Cleveland returns to face Houston, Philly, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore, and both New York teams. That’s an easily exploitable schedule, and he belongs in lineups most of those weeks.

Availability: 36%
FAAB: $4-5

Nelson Agholor, Las Vegas Raiders

It’s clear at this point Agholor is the preferred weapon for Derek Carr among an underwhelming cast of wide receivers. It hadn’t been so apparent, since prior to entering Week 7, the former Eagle had no more than four targets in any game, despite scoring in three of his first five contests as a Raider. Sure, Tampa ended up beating the brakes off of Vegas, but Agholor was productive before the game became totally out of hand. He primarily was utilized as a slot receiver in Philly, and while injuries didn’t help his cause, it has been a move to the outside that has helped Jon Gruden take advantage of Agholor’s downfield skills — a staple role in a Gruden offense. It’s easy to forget Agholor was a first-round pick in 2015, and while there’s a great argument that says he shouldn’t have been, we’re not talking about a guy who came out of nowhere. His upcoming two matchups are quality before getting a little dicey in Week 10 (DEN) and Week 11 (KC). He will be closing out the fantasy regular season in style against Atlanta and the New York Jets.

Availability: 63%
FAAB: $4-5

grab & stash

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants

Check your wire for Shepard. He was a late-week addition to the active roster after being on IR with a toe injury, and the fifth-year pro returned to give New York’s otherwise dismal offense a hint of energy. He finished with eight targets, going for a line of 6-59-1. The schedule ahead is favorable after the Week 11 bye week. Prior to taking a weekend off, a rocky two-game stretch is ahead of a rematch with Philly in Week 10. That’s not to say finding room vs. Tampa (Week 8) and Washington (Week 9) is impossible, but they’ve been among the ninth-best defenses at limiting WRs in PPR this year. It’s understandable if you leave Shepard out of lineups in the next two outings, but he warrants a universal roster spot.

Availability: 50%
FAAB: $3-4

1-Week Plug & Play/Grab & Stash

Braxton Berrios, New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

PPR-only here, and only if you’re desperate. The Chiefs aren’t even a good statistical matchup, so this one is about game flow dictating a bunch of passing to the underneath area of the route tree. Berrios plays almost exclusively from the slot and has a substantial role with Jamison Crowder (groin) once again on the shelf. New York has the Patriots after this one and then a bye week, so it’s not outlandish to view Berrios as a two-week rental. The Chiefs should destroy this defense, forcing Sam Darnold to pass more than desired. Furthermore, KC has been strong enough vs. RBs to keep the Jets’ backfield in check, which bodes well for the passing game to work as an extension of the running attack.

Availability: 86%
FAAB: $1-2

Tight ends

1-Week Plug & Play

Richard Rodgers, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

Rodgers reprises his role in this spot from last week after a six-catch, 85-yard day vs. the Giants — a defense that had been sound at stopping the position. This week, Dallas brings the 11th-worst defense of the position to town, and Rodgers should be prominently featured once again. The Eagles are expected to get Dallas Goedert (ankle) back after the Week 9 bye, making Rodgers’ return to obscurity almost a lock.

Availability: 83%
FAAB: $2-3

Harrison Bryant, Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The rookie snagged a pair of touchdown grabs in Week 7 with Austin Hooper (appendicitis) out of commission. Cleveland goes on bye in Week 9, and Hooper should be available afterward, making Bryant a short-term option. David Njoku also is a factor, but Baker Mayfield slightly favored Bryant, targeting him five times in the last contest to Njoku’s three. The Raiders aren’t particularly favorable as a matchup, yet there’s upside here after the loss of Odell Beckham. In the past two games, Las Vegas has allowed scores to tight ends, albeit to Gronk and Travis Kelce. Jared Cook scored earlier in the year. Two touchdowns from a rookie tight end easily can be a fluke, but there’s greater opportunity, and he has his quarterback’s eye.

Availability: 89%
FAAB: $1-2

Kickers

Priority Free Agent

Matt Prater, Detroit Lions

It’s kind of shocking to see Prater isn’t owned in more leagues than the 44 percent polled, but he belongs on all rosters. The Lions have a granted him at least three field goal attempts in four contests, including four kicks apiece in three of those games. There have been two games with only six combined points, but we’re still talking about 11 or more points in three-fourths of his games. Take that all day long and twice on Sundays.

Availability: 56%
FAAB: $1

1-Week Plug & Play

Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

The 2020 version of Mike Zimmer’s defense is an injury-ravaged, talent-depleted shell of its former self. Crosby is owned in more than half of the leagues we polled, but he should be in all lineups this week. The last time these teams met, back in Week 1, he was good for 11 fantasy points and scored no fewer than 10 in the first three weeks. In the past three games, however, the veteran has only 15 total fantasy points to his credit. There’s a good chance someone in your league dumped him to the wire.

Availability: 44%
FAAB: $0-1

Mike Badgley, Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

Despite missing three kicks in as many games of late, Badgley has fantasy appeal vs. the Broncos. Los Angeles returned from its bye week to afford him three extra point and two field goal kicks, resulting in nine fantasy points scored. He has seven or more in four of six games, and Denver has offered kickers nearly three field goal tries per appearance, and only three teams have given up more, on average.

Availability: 77%
FAAB: $0-1

Defense/specials teams

1-week plug & play

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

Even if Andy Dalton (concussion) starts, this is a fine time to deploy the Eagles at home. The Dallas offensive line is beyond decimated at this point, and there’s a good chance we see rookie quarterback Ben DiNucci make his NFL starting debut. In the past three weeks, the Cowboys have given up eight sacks, five fumbles, four interceptions and allowed a defensive touchdown. Only the Patriots have been an easier mark on a per-game basis, and they played twice in that time. The Eagles generated three takeaway and a trio of sacks in Week 7 vs. the Giants, and this defense has three or more sacks in four of the last five games.

Availability: 50%
FAAB: $1-2

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

The first meeting netted only six fantasy points for the Packers defense after allowing 34 points to the Vikes. The Minnesota offense turned it over only once and gave up a pair of sacks. Since posting a dozen fantasy points in Week 2 vs. the Lions, Green Bay has struggled to do much of anything on defense, recording 13 total points in four games. The Vikings are returning from their bye week and should get Dalvin Cook back on the field, but we’re more interested in the poor play of Kirk Cousins here. It’s fair to expect Green Bay will put the Vikings into a pass-happy script at some point, and the more times Cousins puts it up, the better the Packers’ odds increase for a takeaway.

Availability: 71%
FAAB: $0-1

Ravens open Week 8 odds as large favorites over undefeated Steelers

Oddsmakers are overlooking the Pittsburgh Steelers being undefeated, giving the Baltimore Ravens a pretty big point spread for Week 8.

It’s time for the single best matchup in the NFL as the Baltimore Ravens will play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8. Fans of hard-hitting, defensive-forward football will be tickled by this week’s tilt as the Ravens and Steelers meet for the first time this season.

Yet, despite Pittsburgh being the only remaining undefeated team left in the NFL, oddsmakers are still firmly in Baltimore’s corner. With Week 7 not even fully wrapped up yet, the Ravens enter Week 8 as 5.5-point favorites over the Steelers, according to BetMGM.

That point spread should come as quite a shock to both Baltimore and Pittsburgh fans. This matchup has often been very close, especially in the John Harbaugh era. Of the 27 games these two teams have played since Harbaugh took over control of the Ravens in 2008, 16 have had a final point differential of four or fewer points. Over the whole 27 games combined, the average margin of victory has been just 1.37 points, in Baltimore’s favor. It’s even odder when you consider the Steelers are the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL and the Ravens won’t have a full stadium to get the full home-field-advantage effect.

For those looking to make an early bet this week, taking Pittsburgh with the points seems like a wise investment. That’s not to say the Steelers will actually win, but the 5.5-point spread here is a little too good to not take advantage of before it undoubtedly gets trimmed down to within three points by game time.

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Lions 2019 rewatch: Week 8 notebook from the win over the Giants

Lions 2019 rewatch: Week 8 notebook from the win over the Giants

The 2-3-1 Detroit Lions welcome the 2-5 New York Giants to Ford Field for a Week 8 NFC matchup.

Detroit was coming off a rough patch, losing two NFC North games in six days. The Week 7 loss to Minnesota was the worst defensive performance of the year and wasted a career day from WR Marvin Jones, who scored four TDs in the defeat.

New York had lost three in a row, including a home loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7. Other than their Week 4 win over Washington, the Giants had allowed at least 27 points in every game and ranked 32nd in passer rating allowed entering this matchup.

Pregame notes

Da’Shawn Hand made his season debut along the defensive line for the Lions. Darius Slay and Mike Daniels missed the game with injuries. Starting safety Quandre Diggs was traded during the week and is replaced in the lineup by rookie Will Harris. Kerryon Johnson was placed on I.R. During the week as well, replaced by Tra Carson. The Giants were without WR Sterling Shepard, the only regular the visitors were missing as inactive. Scott Novak and crew officiated.

First quarter

It’s obvious from the very first Giants drive that both teams are focused on RB Saquon Barkley. Jarrad Davis is deployed as a Barkley spy right away and provides great man coverage on a designed wheel route. The Lions are in a straight 4-man front with Devon Kennard playing with a hand in the turf as a traditional DE.

Nice tackles on Barkley by Damon Harrison on an interior run and Mike Ford on a safety-valve outlet pass force the punt. Devon Kennard got pressure on QB Daniel Jones twice during the drive, both off 4-man rushes.

Tra Carson immediately impresses at RB by running aggressively downhill. No jump step, no delay, he attacks the hole. Good blocks from Frank Ragnow and Graham Glasgow create a couple of nice gains.

Matthew Stafford quickly gets into a rhythm with Danny Amendola. They connect three times in four snaps, with the fourth being a coverage sack of Stafford when he can’t find Kenny Golladay down the field. One of the worst throws Stafford has ever made ends the first drive. He forced the ball downfield to Marvin Jones, who was blanketed in bracket coverage. Stafford underthrew the ball under no real pressure. Awful decision and Janoris Jenkins makes him pay for it. He had Ty Johnson open across the field on the backside of the play.

Daniel Jones apparently takes Stafford’s terrible play as a challenge to do worse. And the rookie delivers nicely. After two impressive Barkley runs, the second ended on a potential TD-saving tackle by Tracy Walker, Jones gets absolutely spooked by Davis on a beautiful delay A-gap blitz. He flings the ball in the general direction of Barkley, but it’s a backward pass. Devon Kennard plucks the ball off the turf (Barkley quit on the play) and charges into the end zone for a TD.

Matt Prater’s conversion is nearly blocked but goes through and the Lions are up 7-0. Jalen Reeves-Maybin makes one of the best kick coverage tackles you’ll ever see on Slayton and the Giants take over inside their own 15.

Walker nearly picks off Jones’ next throw but he can’t quite get both feet inbounds on the leaping grab. Outstanding range and instincts in coverage from Walker nonetheless. For good measure, on the next play Walker makes a very nice open-field tackle on a scrambling Jones just shy of the conversion mark to force the punt. Very nice 3-and-out series from the Lions defense, notably Walker and Tavon Wilson.

Sometimes the broadcasters deserve credit. This is one such instance. Kenny Albert notes that the Lions bring in Marvin Hall as a speed option to stretch the defense and that Stafford seems anxious to look deep. This was the magnificent result:

Second quarter

Walker is playing in front of the LBs whenever the Giants have a TE in-line. The Lions clearly don’t respect Jones nearly as much as they fear Barkley running the ball. Davis continues to be a Barkley spy on every pass play and it’s working. But the Giants are learning and adapting…

Great play call by New York. Give them credit. Knowing Davis will mark Barkley, they split the RB wide right. The defensive shuffle reaction winds up with exactly the matchup the Giants want: Golden Tate covered by Will Harris. Two plays earlier Harris was very late to react to a route and now the Giants smell blood. It’s a big gain and sets up the Giants well into Detroit territory.

Jones finds Slayton for a touchdown from 22 yards out after a couple of well-blocked Barkley runs. Slayton easily wins the jump ball at the 2 over an unaware Rashaan Melvin and the pair falls into the end zone before Walker can get there. It’s not a good throw and Trey Flowers got decent pressure by splitting a double-team, but bad CB play costs Detroit and it’s 14-7.

The Lions first offensive play makes me want to throw my cat at the TV. It’s a shotgun handoff to a static RB in Paul Perkins, who might have the slowest acceleration of any RB in the league at that time. It’s a slow-developing run play to a runner who is standing completely still when he gets the ball. This is Jim Bob Cooter’s trash offense and I hope it never rears its ugly head again.

Thankfully Stafford finds T.J. Hockenson on a nice crosser to redeem the dreadful 1st down. Hockenson blew past Jabrill Peppers in coverage. Another nice throw to TE Logan Thomas over the middle gets the Lions into FG range. A chop block call on Hockenson (good call, it was obvious) stalls the drive. To make things worse, Prater pushes the 53-yard FG attempt wide right. The snap was not great but Sam Martin’s hold was excellent.

The Giants score another TD on almost exactly the same play as their first, just on the other side of the field. Hand gets nice pressure up the gut on Jones but he still feels confident enough to float a should-be jump ball to Slayton on Melvin. Once again, Melvin never figures out that the ball is up for grabs. Slayton catches it and lands in the end zone before Harris and Wilson can get there. Ruins an otherwise solid series from the Lions defense, notably Hand. He played a very good series on the shaded nose.

Fortunately the Giants miss the extra point to keep the Lions in front, 14-13.

Nice play design from the Lions offense. They align in bunch formation, trips right. Golladay drags across behind and deeper up the field than Amendola and Stafford slings it in. The throw is a bit behind Golladay but he makes a nice catch. If the pass is out in front Golladay easily goes for another 10-15 yards.

Every run play now is an absolute gift for the Giants defense. The New York LBs are sitting on it and swarming the box with more than the Lions can block. Stafford gets sacked again, another coverage sack. He didn’t come off his first read fast enough and the backside slot CB blitz catches him.

Martin acts his way into extending the Lions possession. A Giant dives into the general vicinity of his feet and Martin sells it well. The Lions keep the ball and up-tempo drive into FG range, no thanks to poor play from Decker at LT (well-earned holding penalty and a QB hurry allowed). Stafford just missed a wide-open Ty Johnson down the right sideline on 3rd down. Prater makes the FG and the Lions go up 17-13.

The Lions dodge a bit of a bullet when Slayton drops a nice throw from Jones on New York’s next play, which could have encouraged them to keep driving and try to score. Instead they kneel out the half.

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