Week 7 was a third straight winning week here in underdog corner, and it produced our first 3-0 weekend of the year.
The New York Giants and Carolina Panthers came through and kept things close as 4-plus-point underdogs in a pair of road division games while the Arizona Cardinals prevailed in a wild, back-and-forth Sunday night shootout to win outright against the visiting Seattle Seahawks.
That puts our record at 9-12 on the season as we continue to dig out from a brutal 2-10 start.
NFL underdog predictions: Week 8
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:50 p.m. ET.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears +4 (-110)
The Bears hardly impressed in a lackluster showing Monday night. They lost 24-10 to the host Los Angeles Rams, and now they’ll be playing on a short week.
This pick has much more to do with the visiting team than it does Chicago.
QB Drew Brees and the Saints are 4-2 overall, but they’ve been one of the most overvalued teams from a wagering perspective with a 2-4 record against the spread. When they’ve been favored by more than a field goal this season, they’re 1-4, having dropped four straight ATS since covering in Week 1 when they beat the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tom Brady‘s debut in the NFC South.
The Saints won’t find the Bears defense very hospitable, while QB Nick Foles and a middling Bears offense could find some traction against a quietly struggling New Orleans defense surrendering an average of 29 points per outing.
Take Da Bears and Da Points.
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Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos +3 (-106)
These division rivals are scuffling along in the AFC West basement at 2-4 apiece, but both have been strong against the number with the Chargers tied with the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers for the league ATS lead at 5-1 while Denver is a game back at 4-2.
L.A. rookie QB Justin Herbert has been one of the surprises of the season, having thrown for at least 311 yards and/or 3-plus touchdowns in all five of his starts — including 11 combined aerial and rushing scores over the last three weeks — but the Broncos are allowing only 230.2 passing yards per contest and have permitted just 8 TDs through the air in six games, the fourth-fewest in the league.
The problem for Denver has been turnovers — only the Dallas Cowboys, with 14, have given the ball away more than the Broncos’ 13. The Chargers defense has come away with only five takeaways in six games, and if that doesn’t change dramatically Sunday, look for the Broncos to post their first home win of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers +4 (-110) at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens should be rested and ready as they come off a bye for this clash of AFC North heavyweights, and they’ll be facing the league’s only unbeaten team in the 6-0 Steelers. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in five of its six outings this season, including last Sunday’s 27-24 road triumph over the previously unbeaten Tennessee Titans.
Two main reasons to expect a Pittsburgh cover here:
- The Steelers present the perfect foil for the Ravens’ top-ranked rushing attack (164.3 yards per game), owning the league’s second-best run defense (68.8 yards).
- The recent history of this series suggests a close game, as 16 of the 26 meetings since 2008 have been decided by four or fewer points.
Bank on another close clash in Baltimore with the Steelers covering.
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Also see:
- Will Chicago rebound in Week 8? (Bears Wire)
- Steelers’ WR Diontae Johnson: ‘Nothing going to keep me out of the game’ (Steelers Wire)
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