The Miami Dolphins (1-3) head to the Bay Area for their Week 5 game against the San Francisco 49ers (2-2) Sunday. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium. Below, we preview the Dolphins-49ers Week 5 betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and best bets.
Dolphins at 49ers betting odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 4:08 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dolphins +320 (bet $100, win $320) | 49ers -400 (bet $400, win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dolphins +8 (-110) | 49ers -8 (-110)
- Over/Under: 50.5 (O: -110, U: -110)
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Dolphins at 49ers game notes
- Miami is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games against San Francisco.
- Despite cluster-injuries to their secondary, opposing QBs have the second-lowest yards per attempt and third-lowest QB rating vs. the 49ers.
- 49ers TE George Kittle erupted in Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles: 15 catches for 183 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Dolphins at 49ers key injuries
Dolphins
- WR/KR Jakeem Grant (illness) questionable
- OT Austin Jackson (foot) out/IR
- DE Shaq Lawson (shoulder) out
- TE Durham Smythe (knee) out
49ers
- DE Ezekial Ansah (biceps) out
- DE Nick Bosa (knee) out/IR
- DE Dee Ford (neck) out/IR
- CB Dontae Johnson (groin) out
- CB Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) out
- RB Raheem Mostert (knee) questionable
- WR Deebo Samuel (illness) questionable
- CB Richard Sherman (calf) out/IR
- DT Solomon Thomas (knee) out/IR
- CB K’Waun Williams (knee, hip) out
- CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) questionable
Dolphins at 49ers: Odds, betting lines, picks and prediction
Prediction
49ers 30, Dolphins 13
Money line (?)
The 49ers (-400) are a tad disappointing at 2-2, but it’s excusable once you look at their recent injury reports, and the Dolphins (+320) are expected to be 1-3.
Regardless of San Francisco’s injury report, the 49ers hold a statistical advantage over Miami in several categories on both sides of the ball. The 49ers need this game like blood to keep pace in the NFC West. They ain’t losing to the ‘Phins, but I am not laying four times my potential return for a San Francisco money line bet.
PASS.
Against the spread (?)
The NFL brainiacs that opined QBs Nick Mullens and Jimmy Garoppolo were comparable or, dare I say, Mullens was preferable, should sit this one out. What an absolutely terrible take. I am trying to reverse-engineer that awfulness and the only thing I can come up with is that they have the same yards per attempt for their careers (8.3). I don’t know, insert Nick Young-question mark meme.
Mullens has the same amount of losses in 10 starts (six) as Jimmy G does in 28. The average score of Mullens’ started games is 22.5-23.3 while in Jimmy G starts, his team wins on average of 28.6-20.7. There’s never been a 49ers team that Mullens could win with and Jimmy G could not. Jimmy G played in last year’s Super Bowl and Mullens didn’t.
In addition to San Francisco getting its starting QB back, this is a rare instance of fading the public with a touchdown-plus favorite, who just played in the Super Bowl. I don’t have any stats or trends for that but it’s insane to me. According to TheSpread.com, 71% of the bets are on the Dolphins.
BET 49ERS -8 (-110).
Over/Under (?)
The Under 50.5 (-110) is where I lean because my read is San Francisco grinds down the Miami defense and makes life difficult for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.
It’s only a lean though since we got some Over trends that scare me. The Over is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last six vs. a team with a losing record and 6-1 in the Dolphins’ last seven games as an underdog.
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Also see:
- Five bold Week 5 predictions for Miami (Dolphins Wire)
- Garoppolo to start Sunday (Niners Wire)
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