Another week and another set of unforeseen results. This has become the normal in a weird season.
Few people thought Indianapolis had a chance against Kansas City last week – the Colts won 20-17 as 4.5-point home underdogs. Jacksonville claimed an upset, too, winning as a 6.5-point road dog in shocking the Los Angeles Chargers 38-10.
If you were lucky enough to make it through and you are still with me on this season long journey, let us figure out who the best choices are in Week 4 in your NFL survivor pool.
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– All games Sunday and ET unless noted
The chalk: Green Bay Packers
Who they play: Home vs. New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers did not have a great game in last week’s 14-12 win at the Buccaneers. He even threw a rare interception, but he threw TD passes to WR Romeo Doubs and WR Allen Lazard. The Packers RB combo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon is better than what the Patriots have faced yet this season. If rookie WR Christian Watson returns this week – a hamstring injury kept him out against Tampa Bay – it only adds another weapon for Rodgers to find in the pass game.
The Patriots are on a downward spiral. The defense gave up 37 points in an 11-point home loss to the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and Rodgers loves facing an overmatched defense.
On offense, any chance New England had to be successful went down when QB Mac Jones suffered a severe high ankle sprain during the Ravens loss. This type of injury normally requires surgery, but the team is still deciding the best course of action. Either way, Jones will be sidelined this week and Brian Hoyer or rookie Bailey Zappe will get the nod behind center.
This is not going to be a good week for Patriots fans, but it will be a wonderful week for anyone who uses the Packers in their survivor pool. GREEN BAY IS MY FAVORITE SURVIVOR POOL PLAY in Week 4.
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Off the board: Los Angeles Chargers
Who they play: At Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
I would love to make this my chalk play, but with QB Justin Herbert still ailing and OL Rashawn Slater now out for the season (torn bicep), I cannot make it my favorite play.
The Chargers, despite their struggles, are still a good team. They might not be elite as many thoughts they could be, but they are still good.
That’s not the case with Houston. The Texans remind me of the 2021 Detroit Lions. They are not going to get blown out in many games, but they will not win much either.
Houston QB Davis Mills did not look good in Sunday’s 23-20 loss at the Chicago Bears. Even before an interception with the game tied and 1:05 to go – setting up the Bears up for a game-winning FG – Mills showed why the Texans will be in the market for a QB in the 2023 draft. He is perfect for them this season, but he is not the future.
The Chargers secondary, led by S Derwin James, is better than the Bears. While a groin injury to DE Joey Bosa is significant, LB Khalil Mack and company will still get pressure on Mills and affect the run game of Texans RB Dameon Pierce.
This game will be close, but the Chargers will win. So, I still like it as a secondary option in any survivor contest.
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Other to consider
Detroit Lions: Home vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m.
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