NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 18

NFL expert John Holler looks at the NFL Week 18 slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

With so many open questions about how teams are going to approach Week 18 – will playoff-bound teams find more value in resting players even if it costs them a higher seed or will teams near the bottom of the standings look to improve their draft stock?

There are very few games even on the prop board at the time of this publishing, so we’re focusing on the star players of those teams fighting to get into the playoffs.

Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 18 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL week 18 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:29 p.m. ET. All games ET and Sunday unless noted.

Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams SCORES A TD (-105)

– Host Chiefs, Saturday 4:30 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Any time you get the league leader in receiving touchdowns as essentially money, you step up to the window and say, “Yes, please.”

Adams has 14 touchdowns this season, including 2 at the Chiefs in their 1st meeting this season. I don’t believe the Raiders have an answer for Kansas City defensively, so they’re going to be throwing a lot in the second half.

All throwing does is make Adams more deadly.

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Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers OVER 252.5 passing yards (-115)

– Host Lions, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

The Packers control their own fate to make the playoffs after sitting at 4-8 a month ago. Rodgers has only hit this number twice this season, but these are the Lions.

The Packers lost 15-9 in their 1st meeting vs. the Lions with Rodgers throwing for 291 yards. He has topped this number in 3 of his last 4 games against Detroit and 5 of his last 7.

With the Packers’ playoff life on the line, Rodgers is going to take things into his own hands, whether that is the result of the plays that are called or the ones he opts to audible out of.

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Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry UNDER 89.5 rushing yards (-105)

– At Jaguars, Saturday 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

I’ve loved winning prop bets on Henry when the books can only make the O/U so high. This bet is one the hedge is making the Over (at -125) too pricey. Unfortunately, the Jaguars have a chance to improbably win the AFC South and the Titans pass offense is a mess. All they have is Henry.

Therein lies the problem. The Jaguars are going to put 8 in the box on every play other than 3rd-and-longs and Henry will likely be out on those plays. I expect Henry to get 20 carries. I don’t expect those 20 carries to net 90 yards.

He literally may need closer to 30 carries because running lanes won’t be there when so many defenders are running downhill at him at the snap.

Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase OVER 80.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Ravens, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Bengals did the right thing by not re-starting Monday’s game with the Bills, but it came with a price.

The NFL has devised bizarre rules for the missed game, including that if the Ravens beat the Bengals — which would be a 2nd time this season — and they meet in the playoffs, home field will be determined by a coin flip. What?

The Bengals have a ton to play for here and Chase is the most dangerous downfield weapon they have. All it will take is one big splash play and 4 or 5 shorter route catches to hit this number.

Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf OVER 66.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Rams, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

For the Seahawks to make the playoffs, they need to win and the Packers need to lose to the Lions in the Sunday night game. The Rams are limping to the finish line with little to play for and less to risk.

Metcalf is a face of the franchise-type player and it’s in big games that those types of guys step up. The Rams play a lot of press-man coverage and it only takes one misstep for Metcalf to make that a bad decision and a big play. The rest will take care itself if he catches 3 or 4 more the rest of the game.

More NFL Week 18 picks and predictions

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NFL Player Prop Bets Picks: 3 best value bets of Week 18

Analyzing the Week 18 matchups and offering up expert picks and predictions on the top player prop bets.

With several playoff-implicating matchups in Week 18, NFL fans should be glued to their seats for nine hours of football Sunday. Below, we look at the NFL Week 18 player prop bets odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Instead of having Thursday Night Football, fans were gifted with a 4-point Chiefs win over the Broncos and a Cowboys blowout victory over the Eagles  Saturday.

A full slate is primed for Sunday with the Chargers and Raiders in a win-or-go-home game to top it all off. Many other games will dictate seeding as well. Only a handful of games will have little to no impact on the playoffs.

With that in mind, let’s dive into the best 3 prop bets to consider.

Week 18 prop bets picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

Raiders RB Josh Jacobs OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-122)

The Las Vegas Raiders are in a win-or-go-home situation against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL.

The Chargers rank 30th in opponents’ rushing yards per game at 136.7. While Jacobs may not have lived up to the hype of being a first-round pick, he has been given the ball far more frequently as of late.

He has notched or topped 15 carries in 3 straight games. If he hits that again, Jacobs should manage at least 60 yards.

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Colts RB Jonathan Taylor OVER 117.5 rushing yards (-137)

The Colts are also in a must-win situation. With their backs against the wall, Jonathan Taylor will likely be handed the ball often and should have a field day with a weak Jacksonville defense.

They rank 25th in opponents’ rushing yards per game at 127.1. Taylor has topped 118 yards in 4 of his last 8 games. He’s averaging over 25 carries per game over his last 7.

Taylor should get the workload as long as the game is within three scorers.

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Titans QB Ryan Tannehill UNDER 218.5 passing yards (-114)

The theme of Week 18 should be the stars that need to show up will. Taylor and Jacobs both have to show up for their team’s season to continue. While the same cannot be said of Tannehill, in some aspects, it can.

If the Titans lose in Houston, they won’t have the No. 1 seed and could have to take on a playoff team in the Wild Card round without Derrick Henry. Tannehill will need to have a good day to get past a gritty Texans bunch, putting the game away early.

The Texans have the 21st-best pass defense and the worst rush defense. As we saw last week, the Titans should abuse Houston and then run the clock down with D’Onta Foreman.

Tannehill has hit this mark just once in the past 8 games and hasn’t hit it in the past five. Fade Tannehill as this game should not be a close contest quickly.

Also see: All Week 18 odds and lines

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