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For those who party their way into 2023 Saturday night and wake up at the crack of noon, we have a handful of prop bet picks that can help ease your hangover.
This week’s picks include a young quarterback making a statement, a home-field touchdown hog building on his new legacy, a pair of players taking advantage of the weakness of the NFC South and the best player at his position in the league not hitting an Over.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 17 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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NFL week 17 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:50 a.m. ET.
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson SCORES A TD (+100)
– At Packers, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Jefferson is looking to be the first 2,000-yard receiver in league history and, in Minnesota’s late-season run, he has been featured even more as coach Kevin O’Connell slides him around the field like he did as the Rams OC with Cooper Kupp last season.
Jefferson has scored a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 games and 6 of his last 8. In Week 1 against the Packers, he caught 9 passes for 184 yards and 2 TDs. While that may be a lot to ask, 100 yards and a touchdown has been the norm, not the wish.
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence OVER 245.5 passing yards (+110)
– At Texans, Sunday 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Jaguars control their destiny to lock down the AFC South title and Lawrence gets the Texans in climate-controlled conditions.
Lawrence has topped 300 yards in 3 of the last 5 games and threw for 286 yards in the 1st meeting with Houston.
The Texans have an awful run defense, but the Jaguars are Lawrence’s team and they’ve been winning with his arm. That shouldn’t change as he leads the Jags to the top of the division by taking out its worst team.
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Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce UNDER 74.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Broncos, Sunday 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
It hurts me to make this pick because Kelce has taken me to the prop bet pay window too many times. However, this is the Broncos defense, which is capable of taking Kelce away.
In his last 3 meetings with Denver, Kelce has caught just 11 passes for 132 yards. He is constantly bracketed and the Broncos force QB Patrick Mahomes to go through his progressions.
Mahomes is a winner because he doesn’t take stupid chances and force the ball where he shouldn’t. If there are two defenders on Kelce, somebody else is open and Mahomes will look elsewhere.
Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders OVER 76.5 rushing yards (-115)
– Host Saints, Sunday 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
With QB Jalen Hurts hurting, the Eagles can’t count on his rushing ability – something backup QB Gardner Minshew doesn’t have.
The Eagles are looking to lock down the No. 1 seed in the NFC and rest their key players in Week 18. They likely won’t take a lot of risks. The Saints have been abused on the ground — allowing 4.6 yards a carry — and the best path to a 1st-round playoff bye is to attack the Saints at their weakness.
That includes a steady diet of Sanders. He has 15 or more carries in 9 games this season (including 21 in Minshew’s first start). If he gets anywhere close to 15 carries (or more), this O/U will be too low.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Panthers, Sunday 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
As brutal as the Bucs have looked as a preseason Super Bowl contender, all the team needs is to beat the Panthers at home.
Whether the Buccaneers continue their trend of throwing far too often to be sustainable – it helps explain their losing record – one thing QB Tom Brady counts on is having Evans as a safety valve.
Evans has had a down year by his standards, but these are the Panthers. He has blown past this number in each of his last 5 meetings, including 9 catches for 96 yards in their 21-3 October loss to the Panthers.
That game earlier this season, marked Evans’ high in targets (15) and catches (9). If he comes close that this time, how does he not surpass this number?
More NFL Week 17 picks and predictions
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