Tag: nfl tiebreakers

NFC standings: 49ers still No. 1 despite Week 6 loss

There’s a 3-way tie atop the NFC standings, but the #49ers still sit at No.1.

The 49ers suffered their first defeat of the year in Week 6, but they didn’t lose their spot atop the NFC standings thanks to the New York Jets. Robert Saleh’s Jets squad knocked off the Eagles 20-14 and removed Philadelphia from the undefeated ranks shortly after the Browns handed San Francisco its first loss of the year.

Losses by the 49ers and Eagles, combined with the Lions’ fourth consecutive victory, leaves three 5-1 teams in the NFC through six weeks.

Here’s what the standings look like one third of the way through the year:

1. 49ers (5-1)
2. Eagles (5-1)
3. Lions (5-1)
4. Buccaneers (3-2)
5. Cowboys (4-2)
6. Seahawks (3-2)
7. Rams (3-3)

The Lions sit at the No. 3 spot because of their conference record. They lost to the Seahawks in Week 2 while the 49ers and Eagles both suffered losses vs. AFC clubs in Week 6.

San Francisco edges out Philly for the top spot thanks to their strength of schedule. 49ers opponents have a combined winning percentage of .441, while Eagles opponents sit with a .429 combined winning percentage.

With no head-to-head matchup yet, no difference in common opponents and identical division records, the tiebreaker would move to strength of victory, which is the combined winning percentage of the teams the 49ers and Eagles have beaten. Since they both have .414 strength of victories, the tiebreak moves on to strength of schedule where the 49ers have a superior mark through six weeks.

This could be a fascinating race down the stretch. Detroit is very good and certainly capable of stealing the No. 1 seed in what appeared before the season to be a two-team race. They won’t face the 49ers or Eagles though, so the tiebreakers could get messy. San Francisco and Philadelphia square off in Week 13 in what could ostensibly become an elimination game in the hunt for the No. 1 seed.

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How NFL playoff tiebreakers could affect 49ers, NFC West

The 49ers and Seahawks could end in a tie for the division that goes deep into the tiebreaker rules.

The 49ers and Seahawks could be barreling toward an end-of-season tie that’ll require the league to go deep into the tiebreaker rules to determine the division winner.

Since the difference between winning and not winning the NFC West this year could be the difference between home-field advantage and a first-round bye, these tiebreakers will be extremely vital for San Francisco.

Here are the tiebreaker steps provided by the NFL, with some notes on where each one stands going into Week 14, including the ones we’ll likely never reach:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)

The Seahawks leads this one 1-0 thanks to their Week 10 win in Santa Clara. No matter how the final four weeks shake out, the 49ers are likely going to need to win at Seattle in Week 17 to secure a division title.

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division)

The Seahawks have the edge in division record thanks to a 3-0 start.  The 49ers are 3-1 with their only loss coming at the hands of Seattle. San Francisco has division bouts with the Rams and Seahawks left. Seattle has a game each against the Rams, Cardinals and 49ers. Any one of those the Seahawks lose is huge for San Francisco’s chances to win the NFC West.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games

San Francisco holds the edge 8-1 to 7-2 in this one. Seattle’s two losses came at the hands of the Ravens and Saints. The 49ers only lost to the Ravens. Common games will get a shakeup in Week 14 when the 49ers face the Saints. There’s a very strong possibility Seattle and San Francisco wind up with an identical record in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Both teams are 7-1 with all their games left against NFC opponents. If these clubs finish with the same record, they’ll be tied in this fourth tiebreak step as well.

5. Strength of victory (combined record of teams beaten)

This is where the 49ers’ easy front half of their schedule hurts them. Their strength of victory going into Week 14 is just .408, while Seattle’s is .454. This one is going to be very tough to overcome since it’ll come largely down to the combined winning percentages of the teams’ uncommon opponents, especially if the 49ers and Seattle lose to the same teams.

The Seahawks played the Vikings and Eagles. The 49ers played the Packers and Washington. Barring a dramatic turnaround from Washington or a drastic collapse from the Vikings, the advantage would tick toward Seattle, but this won’t be determined until the final week of the season.

Realistically, this is as far as the teams get in the tiebreak procedures since finishing with identical strength of victory is fairly unlikely.

6. Strength of schedule (combined record of teams played)

The only way the 49ers win this one is if Washington and the Packers combine for a better record than the Vikings and Eagles. It’s not out of the question, but it’s a scenario San Francisco probably wants to avoid.

If the teams have losses to the same three clubs, and their strength of victory is the same, they’d also have the same strength of schedule. This ride could get wild.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed

The 49ers are in a great spot for this tiebreaker. They lead the NFC in points scored while Seattle checks in at the No. 3 spot.  San Francisco also leads in points allowed, whereas the Seahawks are No. 10. This is one the 49ers may wish was higher up in the tiebreak hierarchy.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed

San Francisco holds an even greater advantage here. They’re second in points scored and points allowed. Seattle is No. 5 in points scored and No. 23 points allowed.

9.  Best net points in common games

Unless something unprecedented happens, the 49ers have this one locked up. They’re outscoring common opponents by a substantial amount more than the Seahawks are. Their net points in common games between the two clubs is 131. Seattle is at 17 with four left. That’s a lot of ground to make up.

10. Best net points in all games

This is another one San Francisco has sewn up. Their point differential going into Week 14 is 166. The Seahawks’ is 36.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games

The 49ers have scored 41 touchdowns and allowed 20. That’s good for 21 net touchdowns. Seattle has scored 40 and allowed 34 – a net of 6. Barring a catastrophe, San Francisco would win this tiebreaker, although the chances of it getting here are essentially none.

12. Coin toss

Help us all if this happens.