NFL survivor pool how to win NFL survivor pool – Page 2

Who to take in Week 6 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 6.

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Well, we were back to the big upsets in Week 5 as the top 2 underdogs ended up winning outright. The Arizona Cardinals upset the San Francisco 49ers 24-23 and the New York Giants stunned the Seattle Seahawks 29-20. Both the Cardinals and Giants were 7-point road underdogs.

In the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest, just 69 of the 10,357 players remain alive. And, that’s just through 5 weeks! This season has been unreal in terms of just trying to pick teams straight up, let alone against the spread.

Unfortunately, our top survivor pick last week was the Seahawks, who were facing a Giants team that was missing super rookie WR Malik Nabers and starting RB Devin Singletary. The Seahawks were supposed cruise in this one, but Giants rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (129 rushing yards) and WR Darius Slayton (122 receiving yards, 1 TD) had other ideas.

At least picking against the Cleveland Browns remain dependable as we tabbed the Washington Commanders as our 2nd option in Week 5 and the Commanders rolled to a 34-13 home rout of the Browns. Cleveland is playing the role of last season’s Carolina Panthers, who finished 2-15.

The Browns did bite us once earlier this season — in Week 3 — when we picked them against the Giants, who won that game 21-15 in Cleveland. The Browns offense is horrendous and changes need to be made. Until then, keep fading ’em.

We have 5 teams favored by 5 or more points heading into Week 6, despite the fact 4 teams are again on a bye. That means a lot of lopsided matchups, or so it seems. Lately, even the games the books expect to be blowouts just have not been so.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– Games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Who they play: Home vs. Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:53 p.m. ET.

Line: Eagles -9 / Moneyline (ML): Eagles -450 | Browns +350

The Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) will get their chance to beat the Browns (1-4) like the rest of the NFC East teams have done so far. With a season-opening loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Browns are 0-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in 3 games against the NFC East with this last one to go.

On the flip side, the Eagles are coming off a bye, so this will be the healthiest they’ve been since Week 1. WRs A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) were able to take part in a padded practice Wednesday, indicating that they’re both trending toward a return after the extra week off.

If Philadelphia’s offense is back at full strength, that’s bad news for a Cleveland team which is already reeling. The Browns offense hasn’t scored more than 18 points in a game this season, putting a ton of stress on the defense. Eventually, the defense is going to break.

Conclusion: PHILADELPHIA IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 6.

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No. 2 option: Atlanta Falcons

Who they play: At Carolina Panthers – 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Falcons -6 / ML: Falcons -275 | Panthers +220

We’ll go back to our 2023 strategy and our early-season 2024 strategy in picking against the Panthers (1-4).

The Atlanta Falcons (3-2) aren’t coming off a bye, but they had a few extra days to heal and prepare since they hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Week 5 Thursday night game — Atlanta rallied for a 36-30 win in overtime.

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins erupted from his early season slumber, throwing for 509 yards (42 of 58) with 4 TDs and 1 INT against the Bucs.

With the Falcons offense rested and raring to go, facing a Panthers defense which has been horrific, this should be a good spot to pick Atlanta, even on the road.

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21
Week 3: LOSS – Panthers 36, Raiders 22
Week 4: WIN – 49ers 30, Patriots 13
Week 5: LOSS – Giants 29, Seahawks 20

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3
Week 3: LOSS – Giants 21, Browns 15
Week 4: WIN – Cowboys 20, Giants 15
Week 5: WIN – Commanders 34, Browns 13

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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Who to take in Week 5 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 5.

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Finally, we had a little sense of normalcy in Week 4 as 2 of the 3 largest favorites on the road won outright. We did have a big upset as the New York Jets were a popular pick in the rain against the Denver Broncos, but the latter escaped with a 10-9 to oust plenty of players in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest.

The survivor contest was pared down even further, as 93 more players were sent to the “eliminated lounge.” Heading into Week 5, only 151 players remain out of 10,357 entries, which speaks to how difficult it has been to simply pick an outright winner in the topsy-turvy NFL so far.

We played it safe with the San Francisco 49ers as our top pick hosting the New England Patriots last week, and our No. 1 option finally came through after a host of upsets the first 3 weekends. The 49ers rolled to a 30-13 victory — covering to boot as double-digit (10.5-point) favorites.

Our 2nd option won, too, as the visiting Dallas Cowboys edged the New York Giants 20-15 on Thursday Night Football. A week earlier, the Giants topped the Cleveland Browns 21-15 in Week 3 to eliminate a ton of survivor entries, so we were conflicted going against the G-Men, especially at home … but it worked out.

If you’re still alive, congratulations. While, normally, it isn’t a big deal to still be alive in Week 5, this season has had a ton of minefields. In fact, this might be the most difficult season of a Survivor Pool contest ever.

It gets more difficult this week as byes start to kick in. That makes it more challenging. Plus, 11 of the 14 games have spread of 3.5 points or less, so there aren’t many clear-cut favorites.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– Games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Seattle Seahawks

Who they play: Home vs. New York Giants – 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:24 a.m. ET.

Line: Seahawks -6 / Moneyline (ML): Seahawks -275 | Giants +220

The Giants offense has struggled this season, going for 18 or fewer points in 3 of 4 their games. Who knows how bad this team would be without rookie WR Malik Nabers, who has really been the lone bright spot.

The Seahawks are coming off a 42-29 loss on Monday Night Football at the Detroit Lions, and now they play on a short week. The good news is that they’re home. Seattle is getting a lot healthier, too, as RB Kenneth Walker III returned from a 2-game absence, and he made up for lost time with 3 rushing TDs in the Motor City.

Seattle’s offense has scored 23 or more points in all 4 of its games, and QB Geno Smith, KW3 and WR DK Metcalf will be able to outlast the G-Men.

Conclusion: SEATTLE IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 5.

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No. 2 option: Washington Commanders

Who they play: Home vs. Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Commanders -3.5 / ML: Commanders -175 | Browns +145

The Commanders have been 1 of the best stories of the early season, winning 3 of 4 games, including road wins as underdogs against both the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals in the past 2 weeks.

Rookie QB Jayden Daniels looks like the real deal, perhaps finally giving Washington the franchise quarterback it has been craving for years.

The Browns thought they were trading for their franchise transforming QB with Deshaun Watson, but he has been a huge disappointment. The Commanders averaged 40.0 points per game the past 2 weeks, while the Browns haven’t scored more than 18 in all 4 of their outings this season. Cleveland simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up.

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21
Week 3: LOSS – Panthers 36, Raiders 22
Week 4: WIN – 49ers 30, Patriots 13

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3
Week 3: LOSS – Giants 21, Browns 15
Week 4: WIN – Cowboys 20, Giants 15

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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Who to take in Week 4 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 4.

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OK. It’s been impossible to pick a winner, just straight up, in the NFL this season. This is the most confounding regular season in recent memory just trying to pick a winner, forget about the spread.

In Week 3 alone, 9 underdogs won outright, including 5 favorites of 5.5 or more points. What’s down is up, and up is down. Teams that look like hot garbage 1 week are world beaters the next.

I know I’m not alone, as in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool, only 244 players remain out of 10,357 players. That means we lost 1,436 players in Week 3, or roughly 13.9% of the entrants.

We were picking on the Carolina Panthers again in Week 3. While they made a QB change to veteran Andy Dalton, they didn’t change out the awful defense. But, perhaps the defense was just more rested and less taxed, with the offense keeping the ball a little longer because Carolina looked like an NFL-caliber team again in a 36-22 beating of the Las Vegas Raiders on the road.

Our 2nd option, the Cleveland Browns, were stunned by the New York Giants at home as 6.5-point favorites. When you’re losing to QB Daniel Jones at home, it’s not a good look. Of course, potential Rookie of the Year WR Malik Nabers had a lot to do with that, hauling in 2 TDs.

At this point, you’re probably wondering why you’re still reading. Our 1st choice is 0-for-3. But, honestly, no one could have predicted all of these upsets. If you’re navigated the waters successfully, we salute you.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: San Francisco 49ers

Who they play: Home vs. New England Patriots – 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 1:43 a.m. ET.

Line: 49ers -10 / Moneyline (ML): 49ers -550 | Patriots +400

OK, not going to make some outlandish social media wager like a Florida State or Kansas State fan. IYKYK. But, if the Patriots bite me again, I swear …

This pick makes me nervous, even though the 49ers are the largest favorite on the board, and the 1st double-digit favorite of the NFL season. They’re missing RB Christian McCaffrey. They’re missing WR Deebo Samuel. DT Javon Hargrave is done for the season. TE George Kittle missed Week 3, and QB Brock Purdy had an MRI on his back. There is concern.

The 49ers are just not going 1-3, and not losing to the Patriots at home. Perhaps it’s not pretty. But, San Francisco is going to get the job done, or I’ll eat …

Conclusion: SAN FRANCISCO IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 4.

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No. 2 option: Dallas Cowboys

Who they play: At New York Giants – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

Line: Cowboys -5.5 / ML: Cowboys -250 | Giants +200

The Cowboys were getting routed by the Baltimore Ravens at home, trailing 28-6 before making a furious comeback in the 4th quarter. Dallas ended up losing 28-25, but there are some positive things it can take from the game.

Baltimore’s offense had the defenders for Dallas off balance for most of the game. There were QB runs with Lamar Jackson, a power run game with RB Derrick Henry or a few downfield shots. Dallas never knew what was coming. It’s a short week, but the Cowboys will face a little more traditional of a team, although it will have to contend with Nabers, who toasted the Browns for 2 scores last week in Cleveland.

Dallas has won 6 in a row in the series, and 9 of the past 10 since Sept. 8, 2019. That includes a 40-0 win in the Meadowlands last season, while outscoring New York 89-17 in 2 meetings in 2023.

Others to consider

Houston Texans: Home vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Texans -7.5 / ML: Texas -350 | Jaguars +260

New York Jets: Home vs. Denver Broncos – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Jets -7.5 / ML: Jets -350 | Broncos +280

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21
Week 3: LOSS – Panthers 36, Raiders 22

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3
Week 3: LOSS – Giants 21, Browns 15

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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Who to take in Week 3 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 3.

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Oh, come on! Yes, Week 1 was on me. I went with the largest favorites on the board and the Cincinnati Bengals bit me. I take ownership of that bad pick, even though no one saw that coming. But, a loss in Week 2 with the top option? Again?!?! That’s on, Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, coach Nick Sirianni and the defense. I am not taking blame for that one — a 22-21 stunning loss to the visiting Atlanta Falcons.

If you weren’t bitten by the New England Patriots — who upset the Bengals –in Week 1, ending your USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool hopes before they even began, I hope you didn’t roll with the Eagles in Week 2 Monday night ,,,

… because they collapsed in the most disgusting way possible.

The Eagles were up 18-15 inside the 2-minute warning and the Falcons had no timeouts lefts. On 3rd down, with less than 2 minutes to go, Sirianni and the Eagles tried a high-percentage toss to Barkley for a sure 1st down, which would have salted the game away, and perhaps it would have led to a touchdown, too. Instead, it was 4th down and the Eagles settled for a field goal.

Up 21-15, the Falcons moved the ball down the field in very, very short order, culminating in a WR Drake London TD grab in the front-corner of the end zone from QB Kirk Cousins. You like that? No. Not at all.

Our strategy was to play it safe for a 2nd straight weekend, rolling with another big favorite … and we lost with another giant upset. This one shouldn’t have happened, but, alas, it did.

Anyway, it isn’t easy. There were 10,357 entrants heading into the 2024 season, competing for a $5K prize in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor contest. Heading into Week 3, only 1,680 entries remain. In other words, 83.8% of all entrants have been eliminated.

For the 2nd week in a row, our 2nd option came through — this time with the LA Chargers. They pounded the Carolina Panthers 26-3, cashing as 4-point road favorites. In the first 2 weeks, 189 players have followed the exact same route, playing against the Panthers to advance — or stay alive in the contest.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Las Vegas Raiders

Who they play: Home vs. Carolina Panthers – 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:15 p.m. ET.

Line: Raiders -5.5 / Moneyline (ML): Raiders -250 | Panthers +190

The Panthers are sending QB Bryce Young to the bench in favor of veteran journeyman QB Andy Dalton, but the quarterback position is certainly not the only problematic area for Carolina. Young isn’t missing tackles. He isn’t struggling to stop the run. He isn’t the new coach finding his way.

The Raiders look like a lot more of a complete team, and this game is at Allegiant Stadium for their home opener. Las Vegas lost at the Chargers in Week 1 but rebounded with an overtime victory as 8.5-point underdogs at the Baltimore Ravens in another game which sent shockwaves through survivor pools everywhere.

The Panthers have led for a total of 10 seconds in the past 10 games. As such, it’s a tremendous strategy in survivor to play against — or fade — Carolina.

There isn’t much more to say. Will the “Red Rifle” (Dalton) make Carolina more of a functional NFL offense? Probably. But, the Panthers defensive woes won’t be solved by a change under center.

Conclusion: LAS VEGAS IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 3.

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No. 2 option: Cleveland Browns

Who they play: Home vs. New York Giants – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Browns -6.5 / ML: Browns -300 | Giants +240

The Browns went down to Jacksonville as 3-point dogs and they toppled the Jaguars 18-13 in Week 2, avoiding a disastrous 0-2 start.

On the flip side, the Giants went to the nation’s capital, and they made NFL history. It was not the kind of history a team can be proud of. New York became the 1st team in NFL history to score 3+ touchdowns, allow 0 TDs, and lose in regulation. Final score: Commanders 21, Giants 18. Ouch!

The good news for New York, which was a 1-point underdog, is that QB Daniel Jones was much better than he was in Week 1, tossing 2 TDs, including a hook-up with rookie WR Malik Nabers, a player on the rise. Jones didn’t have any interceptions either — he had 2 with no TDs in a 28-6 home loss in the season opener to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Giants face a tremendous defensive unit in Cleveland. Plus, they have some issues in the kicking game with PK Graham Gano on the injured reserve list. The G-Men signed PK Greg Joseph off the Detroit Lions practice squad to the active roster. The former FAU product kicked for the Browns in 2018, hitting 17 of 20 field goals (85.0%), including all of his kicks inside of 40 yards.

Playing against the Giants is almost as effective as playing against the Panthers, but Carolina doesn’t have a stud rookie like Nabers … or a decent defense.

Others to consider

Cincinnati Bengals: Home vs. Washington Commanders – Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ABC)

Line: Bengals -7.5 / ML: Bengals -375 | Commanders +280

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Home vs. Denver Broncos – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Buccaneers -7 / ML: Buccaneers -300 | Broncos +240

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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Who to take in Week 2 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 2.

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Hopefully you made it through the Week 1 disaster that was the Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately, we didn’t as we had the Bengals in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool. Cincinnati was upset as a 7.5-point favorite by the New England Patriots 16-10 last Sunday.

Our strategy was to play it safe, going with the largest favorite on the board, but it wasn’t meant to be.

It’s no surprise there was a good number of entries bounced by the Pats. Heading into the new season, 10,356 entrants had high hopes of winning the $5K prize in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor contest. Heading into Week 2, 5,379 entries remain.

At least our 2nd option, the New Orleans Saints, were able to rout the Carolina Panthers 47-10 to easily move on — the Saints were 3.5-point home favorites as 686 entries rode the Saints into Week 2.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Who they play: Home vs. Falcons – Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:20 a.m. ET.

Line: Eagles -6.5 / Moneyline (ML): Eagles -300 | Falcons +240

OK, let’s get on track in Week 2. The Eagles went down to Brazil and got the job done against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, winning 34-29 as a 1-point favorite. Was it pretty? No.

Philly managed 144 rushing yards and 266 passing yards, but it also lost a fumble while QB Jalen Hurts tossed 2 INTs. If the Eagles have a minus-2 turnover margin at home, it won’t fare very well.

The Eagles were also just 3-for-6 in red-zone efficiency, while committing 7 penalties for 57 yards. That’s good news heading into the home opener.

The Falcons lost at home as 4-point favorites to the Pittsburgh Steelers 18-10. Atlanta didn’t give up a touchdown, but the Falcons turned the ball over 3 times and couldn’t outscore 6 Pittsburgh field goals.

Philadelphia will be looking to add to the Monday Night Football woes of Falcons QB Kirk Cousins. He is just 3-10 in his career on MNF and has a cumulative record of just 12-20 in prime-time action for a .375 winning percentage.

Conclusion: PHILLY IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 2.

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

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No. 2 option: LA Chargers

Who they play: At Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Chargers -6 / ML: Chargers -275 | Panthers +220

The Chargers racked up a 22-10 home victory as 3-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1, as coach Jim Harbaugh won his 1st game in his return to the NFL.

The Bolts were good for 176 yards on the ground, while adding 140 yards through the air. The defense did its part, too, picking off 1 interception and recovering 2 fumbles, going for a plus-3 in the turnover margin. That’s a good recipe for success, regardless of the opponent.

For the Panthers, we’ve picked on them time and time again the past 2 seasons. Using the Chargers on the road is risky business, but the Panthers are horrific. As mentioned, they had their doors blown off in New Orleans, losing 47-10. To make matters worse, Carolina lost its best defender in DL Derrick Brown to a season-ending knee injury.

Look for QB Justin Herbert and the Bolts to go on the road and get a victory. Plus, using the Chargers will help you burn a team you might only consider a few times a season, saving some of the big-name teams for later.

Others to consider

Baltimore Ravens: Home vs. Las Vegas Raiders – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Ravens -8.5 / ML: Ravens -450 | Raiders +350

Washington Commanders: Home vs. New York Giants – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Commanders -1.5 / ML: Commanders -125 | Giants +105

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Who to take in Week 1 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season kicks off with Week 1.

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In Week 1, it’s a clean slate. We have a brand new season of the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool. We can choose any team. My strategy is to play it safe, survive and advance. Remember, a team can only be picked once during the season.

Nothing is worse than getting bumped out in Week 1, whether it is in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool — which is free to enter — or another pool.

A lot of entries like to save the marquee teams and roll the dice early on some teams that might not necessarily be picked any other time. That’s a slippery slope as you need to win and advance to be able to play those stashed marquee teams later in the season.

I’ll do my best to keep you afloat, hopefully through the holidays, and into the end of the regular season toward that giant payday in your NFL survivor pool.

PLAY TO WIN $5K!
USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool is free to enter. Sign up now!

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The chalk: Cincinnati Bengals

Who they play: Home vs. Patriots – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 4:15 a.m. ET.

Line: Bengals -8 / Moneyline (ML): Bengals -400 | Patriots +325

It still takes some getting used to, seeing the New England Patriots as the biggest underdog in the league for a weekend, but that’s where we’re at.

Coach Jerod Mayo takes over for the legendary Bill Belichick, and he named QB Jacoby Brissett as his starter over rookie QB Drake Maye. Mayo is heady and a game manager, so this could be a little dicey at first. RB Rhamondre Stevenson is a stud, too. If this is a tight game, the Cincinnati Bengals rush defense will have to contend with him.

However, QB Joe Burrow is back and healthy for Cincinnati, and he has WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal. The Bengals ground attack has a new look as RB Zack Moss replaces RB Joe Mixon, who was traded to the Houston Texans. Moss is younger, and a little more physical, while RB Chase Brown remains as a change-of-pace option. The offense still looks mighty dangerous and the team added red-zone threat TE Mike Gesicki (formerly of the Pats) to the mix. He just happens to be facing his former team in Week 1.

The Bengals look to get off to a hot start. They can’t afford to lose ground in the ultra-competitive AFC North, especially against a patsy at home in the opener.

CINCINNATI IS MY FAVORITE SURVIVOR PLAY FOR WEEK 1.

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

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No. 2 option: New Orleans Saints

Who they play: Home vs. Panthers – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Saints -4 / ML: Saints -225 | Panthers +180

If you don’t want to pick the Bengals in Week 1, the New Orleans Saints are my 2nd choice.

This pick goes a little more along the line of a team that might not be considered the cream of the crop, but it helps save some of the top-tier teams for later.

Last season, picking against the Carolina Panthers was a smart strategy as they had an NFL-worst 2-15 record, including a pair of losses to the Saints. TRIVIA: Who were the 2 teams the Panthers beat? Answer below

Carolina was 0-9 on the road last season. In Week 14, QB Bryce Young was a dismal 13-of-36 for just 137 yards — no TDs or picks — in a 28-6 loss in New Orleans Dec. 10, 2023. He was a little better in the 1st meeting in Week 2 in Charlotte, completing 22-of-33 passes for 153 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT.

Again, this game is in NOLA, where he was completely fooled by the Saints D and flustered by the raucous crowd.

While some will point to the fact that the Panthers’ last road win was, indeed, in New Orleans in the final week of the 2022-23 regular season. K Eddy Pineiro kicked a 42-yard FG as time expired for the win as the 2 NFC South rivals finished with identical 7-10 records. QB Andy Dalton started for the Saints; he is now the Panthers’ backup. QB Sam Darnold started for Carolina; he is now the starter in Minnesota.

A lot has changed since that afternoon, but one thing is a constant. Carolina struggles on the road. Until the Panthers can figure it out and look like an NFL-caliber team again, keep making them a priority to pick against.

TRIVIA answer: Houston and Atlanta

Coming out of their bye week, the Panthers upset the favored and visiting Texans 15-13 in Week 8 to send survivor pools into chaos — Carolina was a 3.5-point underdog. In Week 15, the Panthers claimed an ugly, low-scoring 9-7 win as 2.5-point home dogs vs. the Falcons.

Others to consider

Buffalo Bills: Home vs. Arizona Cardinals – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Bills -6.5 / ML: Bills -300 | Cardinals +240

San Francisco 49ers: Home vs. Jets – Monday, 8:20 p.m. (ESPN / ABC)

Line: 49ers -4 / ML: 49ers -200 | Jets +165

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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Who to take in Week 8 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 8.

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Week 7 brought us another winning selection in the NFL survivor pool. We had the Seattle Seahawks, who beat the visiting Arizona Cardinals 20-10.

Unfortunately, our No. 2 option went down the drain with the Washington Commanders losing at the New York Giants 14-7.

Now, on to Week 8.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The chalk: Philadelphia Eagles

Who they play: At Washington Commanders – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Washington and Philadelphia routinely play exciting games. No matter the spread, close games have become more often in this series.

Philadelphia (6-1) won the season’s 1st meeting between these NFC East rivals 34-31 as a 10-point home favorite in Week 4. The Eagles have won 4 of the last 5 vs. the Commanders (3-4). They’ve also won their last 3 trips to Washington, including a 24-8 victory as 6-point favorites last season.

QB Jalen Hurts tweaked his knee in a 31-17 home victory against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday night, but he didn’t miss any practice time and is expected to play vs. the Commanders.

WR A.J. Brown is coming off another great game, pulling in 10 receptions for 137 yards and a TD on 15 targets vs. the Dolphins. TE Dallas Goedert, on National Tight End’s Day — who knew there was such as thing? — had a good game as well with 5 receptions for 77 yards and 1 TD.

Philadelphia has yet to hit its stride during the 1st part of the season. With a bye week ahead in Week 10 followed by a brutal schedule — at Kansas City vs. Buffalo, vs. San Francisco, at Dallas, at Seattle — this is the best time for the Eagles to get things going against a Washington team that allowed 5 sacks of QB Sam Howell in the 1st half of Sunday’s loss to the Giants. New York came into that game with just 5 sacks total on the season.

It was the 6th time in 7 games Howell was sacked at least 5 times. Howell is the first QB since David Carr in 2002 to be sacked at least 40 times in the first 7 games of a season. If the Giants were able to get to Howell with their limited pass rush last weekend, Eagles LB Haason Reddick, DL Jalen Carter and Co. shouldn’t have a problem getting to Howell for at least 5 more sacks Sunday.

The Eagles defense, which held the high-scoring Dolphins to just 17 points, will be key vs. the Commanders. With S Kevin Byard recently acquired from the Tennessee Titans to solidify an injured Eagles secondary, any ability the Commanders would have to throw the ball could be gone. Running the ball won’t be much easier as the Eagles rush defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL by allowing just 62.9 rushing yards per game (YPG).

All the signs point to another Philadelphia victory, which is why the EAGLES ARE MY TOP WEEK 8 SURVIVOR POOL PICK.

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No. 2 option: Los Angeles Chargers

Who they play: Home vs. Chicago Bears – 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

The Chargers (2-4) are coming off a 31-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Bears (2-5) are not the Chiefs.

Yes, Chicago was able to beat the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 7 by a score of 30-12 as a 2.5-point home underdog. But the Raiders defense was unable to put any pressure on Bears QB Tyson Bagent, who was only sacked twice for a total of 12 yards. With SS Derwin James Jr. in the secondary and Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the line, the Chargers, at home, will be able to put more pressure on the Bears rookie QB.

With QB Jimmy Garoppolo out, the Raiders turned to QB Brian Hoyer. vs. the Bears. Chicago won’t have such a luxury Sunday as Chargers QB Justin Herbert is at full health and is coming off a game against the Chiefs in which he was 17 for 30 for 259 passing yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.

The Bears defense will provide a much softer challenge than the Raiders. Chicago’s defense ranks 29th in pass defense, yielding 257.1 YPG.

The Chargers don’t want to run the ball. They average 111.8 rushing YPG, good for 16th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bears defense is tough against the run, ranking 5th in allowing 82.3 rushing YPG. yards and 2nd in yards per carry allowed (3.4).

This will be a game of strength against weakness. Chargers WRs Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer will look to exploit a weak Bears secondary, and RB Austin Ekeler will also gain yards in the pass game from the backfield.

Both teams have been disappointing this season, but the Chargers are at home and are the better team. They will win this game. They are a solid secondary selection for your NFL survivor pool if you already used the Eagles or prefer to save them for later.

Others to consider

Kansas City Chiefs: At Broncos – 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Baltimore Ravens: At Cardinals – 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

2023 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Ravens 25, Texans 9
Week 2: WIN – Cowboys 30, Jets 10
Week 3: WIN – Dolphins 70, Broncos 20
Week 4: LOSS – Titans 27, Bengals 3
Week 5: WIN – Lions 42, Panthers 24

Week 6: WIN – Rams 26, Cardinals 9
Week 7: WIN – Seahawks 20, Cardinals 10

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN: Commanders 20, Cardinals 16
Week 2: WIN – Bills 38, Raiders 10
Week 3: WIN – Chiefs 41, Jets 10
Week 4: WIN – 49ers 35, Cardinals 16
Week 5: LOSS – Steelers 17, Ravens 10

Week 6: WIN – Bills 14, Giants 9
Week 7: LOSS – Giants 14, Commanders 7

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Dominick Petrillo on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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Who to take in Week 7 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 7.

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Our Week 6 NFL survivor pool pick of the Los Angeles Rams won with a 26-9 home victory over the Arizona Cardinals.

Now, it’s time to turn our focus on Week 7.

There are a lot of ugly matchups this week, but we will trudge through and find you a winner — sticking with the rule of not picking a team we already selected earlier in the season.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The chalk: Seattle Seahawks

Who they play: Home vs. Arizona Cardinals – 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Seattle (3-2) returns home after playing the last 2 on the road. The Seahawks lost last Sunday 17-13 as 3-point underdog at the Cincinnati Bengals. The week before, they easily beat the New York Giants 24-3 on Monday Night Football — Seattle was a 2.5-point favorite.

Arizona (1-5) will be playing a 2nd NFC West road game in a row after losing the already mentioned 26-9 defeat at L.A. — the Cardinals were 7.5-point underdogs. This will also be Arizona’s 3rd divisional road game in 4 weeks — it lost as a 14.5-point dog to the San Francisco 49ers 35-16 Oct. 1.

Arizona at least covered its first 3 games of the season, but hasn’t covered in the last 3. With this game being in Seattle, it’s not a good spot for the Cardinals and QB Joshua Dobbs.

RB James Conner, who injured his knee 2 weeks ago, is on IR. His absence was apparent in the loss to the Rams as the Cardinals were 0 for 3 inside the red zone and finished with 130 rushing yards.

Behind the home crowd noise as a 12th man, Seattle will grind down Arizona and win this divisional matchup. The Seahawks need this win if it wants to remain NFC playoff contenders.

SEATTLE IS MY TOP WEEK 7 SURVIVOR POOL PICK.

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

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No. 2 option: Washington Commanders

Who they play: At New York Giants – 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Commanders (3-3) bounced back with a 24-16 victory as 1-point road underdogs at the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6. They were coming off a 40-20 embarrassing loss as 6-point home favorites to the Chicago Bears in the Week 5 Thursday Night Football game.

Washington now play a 2nd straight road game as it heads to Met Life Stadium to battle division foe New York in a crucial game for both teams.

The Giants (1-5) enter on a 4-game losing streak, recently suffering a heartbreaking 14-9 loss — as 15.5-point underdogs — at the Buffalo Bills last Sunday when questionable calls cost New York the chance to record a major upset.

RB Saquon Barkley returned after a 3-game absence (sprained ankle) and proved himself healthy, carrying the ball 24 times for 93 yards. He also was caught 4 of 5 targets from QB Tyrod Taylor, although this only led to 5 receiving yards. His health is a major key to the Giants offense. The other is the return of QB Daniel Jones behind center.

Jones missed last Sunday’s game with a neck injury. If he is able to return this week, it will add another dimension to the offense and allow Barkley more space to operate with a mobile QB beside him.

With QB Sam Howell, Washington has been able to not just find a passing game, it has also been able to find a renewed run game. RB Antonio Gibson was able to find the end zone — a 1-yard TD reception — against Atlanta. With Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. in the backfield, the Commanders will be a difficult team to defend.

Washington still has playoff hopes. The Giants have lost most of their hopes during their current 4-game skid — a streak which looks to grow to 5 after Sunday.

TAKE WASHINGTON in your NFL survivor pool for Week 7 if you already used the Seahawks — or don’t feel as confident with them.

2023 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Commanders 20, Cardinals 16
Week 2: WIN – Bills 38, Raiders 10
Week 3: WIN – Chiefs 41, Jets 10
Week 4: WIN – 49ers 35, Cardinals 16
Week 5: LOSS – Steelers 17, Ravens 10
Week 6: WIN – Bills 14, Giants 9

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Dominick Petrillo on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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Who to take in Week 6 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 6.

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After taking a loss in Week 4 with the Cincinnati Bengals, we got back on the winning track in Week 5 with the Detroit Lions, 42-24 victors over the Carolina Panthers.

If you’re still alive in an NFL survivor pool, you can definitely feel good about it, but there’s still a long way to go.

There are a few great options in Week 6.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The chalk: Los Angeles Rams

Who they play: Home vs. Arizona Cardinals – 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

The Rams (2-3) are coming off a 23-14 loss as 4-point home underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday, the same day the Cardinals (1-4) lost as 3-point home underdogs to the Cincinnati Bengals 34-20.

Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs had his worst game of the season, getting picked off twice while throwing for just 166 passing yards (15 of 32) and 2 TDs. The Cardinals also took a big hit as RB James Conner left the game with a knee injury and landed on IR for a minimum of 4 weeks.

Although the Cardinals have played teams tough this far, the injuries are piling up and they could be hitting the proverbial wall.

In the loss to the Eagles, the Rams got a major piece of their offense back as WR Cooper Kupp made his season debut with 8 receptions for 118 yards — he missed the first 4 games with a hamstring injury. The return of Kupp and the emergence of WR Puka Nacua — 7 catches for 71 yards and a TD vs. the Eagles — will make the Rams and QB Matthew Stafford harder to defend.

Even without Kupp for 4 games, the Rams have averaged 270.0 passing yards per game. This week they go up against a Cardinals defense allowing 251.4 passing YPG (26th in the NFL), so the Rams will put up points in this NFC West matchup.

With Kupp starting to take off and Dobbs returning to earth after a solid 1st month, the RAMS ARE MY TOP WEEK 6 SURVIVOR POOL PICK.

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

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No. 2 option: Buffalo Bills

Who they play: Home vs. New York Giants – 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

The Giants (1-4) are terrible, but this is more a bet on the Bills (3-2) bouncing back from a lackluster performance in a 25-20 loss — as 5.5-point favorites — in London to the Jacksonville Jaguars. It cost the Bills the AFC East lead as the Miami Dolphins (4-1) took over 1st following their 31-16 victory over the Giants — Miami covered as a 13-point home favorite.

New York comes in looking like the walking wounded. QB Daniel Jones (neck) and OLs Andrew Thomas (hamstring) and John Michael Schmitz (shoulder) didn’t practice Thursday it’s possible all 3 might not play in Buffalo. At least RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) saw limited practice Thursday, improving his chance of playing Sunday.

The Bills, after 3 consecutive wins by 28 or more points, laid an egg overseas vs. the Jaguars. The team decided to fly to London on Friday for the Sunday game and it took a toll as the Bills looked like they were stuck in cement until the 4th quarter.

Being back home and resting in their own beds, the 14.5-point favored Bills will get back on track. (BetMGM Sportsbook line last updated Friday at 6:30 a.m. ET.)

Other to consider

Philadelphia Eagles: At New York Jets – 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

2023 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

NO. 2 OPTION

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Dominick Petrillo on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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Who to take in Week 5 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 5.

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Unfortunately, we suffered our 1st loss of the season by selecting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 of our NFL survivor pool. Cincinnati was a total disappointment, losing at the Tennessee Titans 27-3 as a 2.5-point favorite.

For those who went with our 2nd option in the San Francisco 49ers — who easily handled the visiting New England Patriots 38-3 as 6-point favorites — or with a different winning team entirely, we’ll continue to move forward and select the best teams to pick to advance in a survivor pool.

Plus, some survivor contests allow for 2 or 3 losses before elimination.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The chalk: Detroit Lions

Who they play: Home vs. Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Carolina and the Chicago Bears are the remaining winless teams – both 0-4 –entering Week 5. In last Sunday’s 21-13 home loss to the Minnesota Vikings, Carolina jumped out to a 10-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter. It was an early tease for those who took 4-points with the Panthers.

Rookie QB Bryce Young has yet to take hold of the Panthers offense. With just 204 passing yards (25 of 32 attempts), the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft was unable to take advantage of a Vikings defense which had struggled to start the season.

Detroit, which will have an extra 3 days of rest after beating Green Bay 34-20 as a 2.5-point road favorite last Thursday, returns home looking to remain in 1st place in the NFC North.

Already having suffered a 37-31 home loss to Seattle as 5-point favorites in Week 2, the Lions will not want to drop a 2nd home game this early in the season.

The Panthers traded away RB Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco last season. They later traded their top WR in D.J. Moore to Chicago to gain the No. 1 draft pick – which they used on Young. This could work well in the future if Young proves to be what the Panthers hope, but coming into this game, winless and hoping to beat the better team in Detroit, is not a safe bet.

DETROIT, with QB Jared Goff leading the way, is my BEST PICK for NFL survivor pools in Week 5.

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No. 2 option: Baltimore Ravens

Who they play: At Pittsburgh Steelers – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Baltimore comes in after dismantling Cleveland 28-3 – the Ravens were 1-point road favorites vs. the Browns, who were without QB Deshaun Watson.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was dismantled as a 3-point favorite by rookie QB C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans 30-6. The loss was made worse by a knee injury to QB Kenny Pickett. The 2nd-year QB, who was coming off the first 2-passing TD game of his career vs. the Raiders in Week 3, is expected to practice this week, but it’s uncertain if he’ll play this Sunday.

If he’s is unable to go, the Steelers will turn to QB Mitch Trubisky. Plus, Pittsburgh is still without WR Diontae Johnson, who is on the Injured Reserve list with a hamstring injury suffered against Cleveland Sept. 18.

While Pittsburgh will be missing its top wideout and could be without its No. 1 quarterback, Baltimore will have QB Lamar Jackson and TE Mark Andrews. Both Ravens could be the best players on the field in the game.

While Jackson isn’t known as an elite passer, he completed 15 of 19 attempts for 186 yards and 2 TDs, both to Andrews (5 receptions, 80 yards), in the win vs. Cleveland.

This should be another close AFC North battle, but when the game is close, I will take K Justin Tucker over any other kicker in the league.

Other to consider

Miami Dolphins: Home vs. New York Giants – 1 p.m. (FOX)

2023 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Ravens 25, Texans 9

Week 2: WIN – Cowboys 30, Jets 10

Week 3: WIN – Dolphins 70, Broncos 20

Week 4: LOSS – Titans 27, Bengals 3

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Commanders 20, Cardinals 16

Week 2: WIN – Bills 38, Raiders 10

Week 3: WIN – Chiefs 41, Jets 10

Week 4: WIN – 49ers 35, Cardinals 16

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Dominick Petrillo on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Access more NFL coverage:

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