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In Week 1, it’s a clean slate. We have a brand new season of the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool. We can choose any team. My strategy is to play it safe, survive and advance. Remember, a team can only be picked once during the season.
Nothing is worse than getting bumped out in Week 1, whether it is in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool — which is free to enter — or another pool.
A lot of entries like to save the marquee teams and roll the dice early on some teams that might not necessarily be picked any other time. That’s a slippery slope as you need to win and advance to be able to play those stashed marquee teams later in the season.
I’ll do my best to keep you afloat, hopefully through the holidays, and into the end of the regular season toward that giant payday in your NFL survivor pool.
PLAY TO WIN $5K!
USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool is free to enter. Sign up now!
– All games Sunday and ET unless noted
The chalk: Cincinnati Bengals
Who they play: Home vs. Patriots – 1 p.m. (CBS)
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 4:15 a.m. ET.
- Line: Bengals -8 / Moneyline (ML): Bengals -400 | Patriots +325
It still takes some getting used to, seeing the New England Patriots as the biggest underdog in the league for a weekend, but that’s where we’re at.
Coach Jerod Mayo takes over for the legendary Bill Belichick, and he named QB Jacoby Brissett as his starter over rookie QB Drake Maye. Mayo is heady and a game manager, so this could be a little dicey at first. RB Rhamondre Stevenson is a stud, too. If this is a tight game, the Cincinnati Bengals rush defense will have to contend with him.
However, QB Joe Burrow is back and healthy for Cincinnati, and he has WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal. The Bengals ground attack has a new look as RB Zack Moss replaces RB Joe Mixon, who was traded to the Houston Texans. Moss is younger, and a little more physical, while RB Chase Brown remains as a change-of-pace option. The offense still looks mighty dangerous and the team added red-zone threat TE Mike Gesicki (formerly of the Pats) to the mix. He just happens to be facing his former team in Week 1.
The Bengals look to get off to a hot start. They can’t afford to lose ground in the ultra-competitive AFC North, especially against a patsy at home in the opener.
CINCINNATI IS MY FAVORITE SURVIVOR PLAY FOR WEEK 1.
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No. 2 option: New Orleans Saints
Who they play: Home vs. Panthers – 1 p.m. (FOX)
- Line: Saints -4 / ML: Saints -225 | Panthers +180
If you don’t want to pick the Bengals in Week 1, the New Orleans Saints are my 2nd choice.
This pick goes a little more along the line of a team that might not be considered the cream of the crop, but it helps save some of the top-tier teams for later.
Last season, picking against the Carolina Panthers was a smart strategy as they had an NFL-worst 2-15 record, including a pair of losses to the Saints. TRIVIA: Who were the 2 teams the Panthers beat? Answer below
Carolina was 0-9 on the road last season. In Week 14, QB Bryce Young was a dismal 13-of-36 for just 137 yards — no TDs or picks — in a 28-6 loss in New Orleans Dec. 10, 2023. He was a little better in the 1st meeting in Week 2 in Charlotte, completing 22-of-33 passes for 153 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT.
Again, this game is in NOLA, where he was completely fooled by the Saints D and flustered by the raucous crowd.
While some will point to the fact that the Panthers’ last road win was, indeed, in New Orleans in the final week of the 2022-23 regular season. K Eddy Pineiro kicked a 42-yard FG as time expired for the win as the 2 NFC South rivals finished with identical 7-10 records. QB Andy Dalton started for the Saints; he is now the Panthers’ backup. QB Sam Darnold started for Carolina; he is now the starter in Minnesota.
A lot has changed since that afternoon, but one thing is a constant. Carolina struggles on the road. Until the Panthers can figure it out and look like an NFL-caliber team again, keep making them a priority to pick against.
TRIVIA answer: Houston and Atlanta
Coming out of their bye week, the Panthers upset the favored and visiting Texans 15-13 in Week 8 to send survivor pools into chaos — Carolina was a 3.5-point underdog. In Week 15, the Panthers claimed an ugly, low-scoring 9-7 win as 2.5-point home dogs vs. the Falcons.
Others to consider
Buffalo Bills: Home vs. Arizona Cardinals – 1 p.m. (CBS)
- Line: Bills -6.5 / ML: Bills -300 | Cardinals +240
San Francisco 49ers: Home vs. Jets – Monday, 8:20 p.m. (ESPN / ABC)
- Line: 49ers -4 / ML: 49ers -200 | Jets +165
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