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Who to take in Week 11 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 11.

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In Week 10 of the NFL regular season, things mostly went according to plan. In fact, we had just 5 underdogs win outright, and 3 of those teams were ‘dogs by 2 or fewer points.

If you picked against the Carolina Panthers in Germany against the New York Giants, or against the New England Patriots at the Chicago Bears, you were shown the door. Not that odds matter in survivor pools, but the Panthers were 6.5-underdogs, while the Patriots were 6-point ‘dogs.

In Week 10 of the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest, 7 more people were bumped off, leaving us with 26 of the 10,357 still alive for the prize of $5,000. The Bears eliminated 5 players, while the Giants caused another player to be eliminated. One other picked the Atlanta Falcons on the road against the New Orleans Saints.

As far as our 2 picks were concerned, the Minnesota Vikings weren’t pretty in Week 10, but they got the job done 12-7 on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is always dicey taking a road team, but the Jags were starting backup QB Mac Jones for the injured QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). Jones was awful, as expected, but so was the Minnesota offense.

With our other option, we backed the LA Chargers, using a tried-and-true strategy of picking against the Tennessee Titans. That’s been an ace lately.

Perusing the Week 11 slate, we have 6 teams favored by 6 or more points on Sunday and Monday, with 1 double-digit favorite, the Detroit Lions taking on the aforementioned Jags.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– Games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Detroit Lions

Who they play: Home vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:16 a.m. ET.

Line: Lions -13 / Moneyline (ML): Lions -800 | Jaguars +550

The Detroit Lions (8-1) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) on Sunday at Ford Field in the D, and the Lions are the largest favorite on the board, laying 13 points.

We’ve yet to back the Lions with our primary option this season, although we did burn them in Week 8 with our secondary option against the woeful Titans. The Lions were also a 13-point favorite against Tennessee in that game, and Detroit won comfortably by a 52-14 score in the most recent home game. In fact, the Lions have won 7 in a row since their lone loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in Week 2.

Conclusion: DETROIT IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 11.

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No. 2 option: Houston Texans

Who they play: At Dallas Cowboys – 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Line: Texans -7.5 / ML: Texans -400 | Cowboys +310

The Houston Texans (6-4) are big favorites against the struggling Dallas Cowboys (3-6) for Monday Night Football.

The Cowboys will be without QB Dak Prescott for the remainder of the season due to a partially-torn hamstring, so QB Cooper Rush is expected to start for a second straight outing. He was abysmal last week against the Eagles, and QB Trey Lance didn’t do much when he was called upon.

The Texans lost a tight one against the Lions in a prime-time game, so they’re on nationally for a second consecutive week. Houston is expected to welcome back WR Nico Collins, which is a shot in the arm for the Texans offense which has been without Collins and WR Stefon Diggs, who is out for the season.

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2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21
Week 3: LOSS – Panthers 36, Raiders 22
Week 4: WIN – 49ers 30, Patriots 13
Week 5: LOSS – Giants 29, Seahawks 20

Week 6: WIN – Eagles 20, Browns 16
Week 7: WIN – Commanders 40, Panthers 7
Week 8: LOSS – Browns 29, Ravens 24
Week 9: WIN – Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 24 (OT)
Week 10: WIN – Vikings 12, Jaguars 7

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3
Week 3: LOSS – Giants 21, Browns 15
Week 4: WIN – Cowboys 20, Giants 15
Week 5: WIN – Commanders 34, Browns 13

Week 6: WIN – Falcons 38, Panthers 20
Week 7: WIN – Bills 34, Titans 10
Week 8: WIN – Lions 52, Titans 14
Week 9: WIN – Eagles 28, Jaguars 23
Week 10: WIN – Chargers 27, Titans 17

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Who to take in Week 10 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 10.

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It was an easy week to pick favorites in Week 9 of the NFL regular season. We had just one underdog win outright, as the Carolina Panthers (+7) toppled the New Orleans Saints 23-22.

Thankfully, we normally pick against the Panthers, but there are two reasons we didn’t. One, we already played the Saints in Week 1 against them in New Orleans, and two, Carolina has been showing some signs of life lately.

In Week 9 of the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest, there were 8 more players who hit the exit doors, leaving us with 33 of the 10,357 players still alive. Surprisingly, one person elected to take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night at Arrowhead. They’re gone, and another player back the Houston Texans, while 6 others had the Saints.

As far as we were concerned, we backed the Chiefs for that Monday night game against the Bucs, and Kansas City held off Tampa Bay 30-24 in overtime.

In the other game, we selected the Philadelphia Eagles as a 7.5-point favorite over the Jacksonville Jaguars. It was 22-0 at one point, but the Jags stormed back for the backdoor cover with 4:04 to go in regulation, falling 28-23.

Looking ahead to Week 10, we have 7 teams favored by 6 or more points on Sunday. The New York Giants are one of those sides, taking on the aforementioned Panthers at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany at 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– Games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Minnesota Vikings

Who they play: At Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:36 p.m. ET.

Line: Vikings -7 / Moneyline (ML): Vikings -350 | Jaguars +260

The Minnesota Vikings (6-2) travel to meet the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) on Sunday at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville.

Surprisingly, we haven’t played the Vikings with either of our 2 options so far this season. That likely has to do with the fact Minnesota has been favored by 2.5 or fewer points in 3 of its 4 games as a favorite, while serving as an underdog in the other games. It was a 5.5-point favorite last week, largest of the season, against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. Minnesota covered in a 21-13 victory.

After serving as a limited participant in practice Thursday, reports surfaced that Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is nursing a left shoulder injury, and he is unlikely to play.

Conclusion: MINNESOTA IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 10.

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No. 2 option: LA Chargers

Who they play: Home vs. Tennessee Titans – 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Chargers -7.5 / ML: Chargers -375 | Titans +300

The LA Chargers (5-3) are heavy favorites against the last-place Tennessee Titans (2-6).

Tennessee did pick up a win in Week 9, but it was against the New England Patriots in OT, 20-17.

Los Angeles spanked the Cleveland Browns 27-10 on the road, and it has won the past 2 games by an average margin of 17.5 points. At home, the Bolts have won 2 of 3 games this season, with the lone loss to the unbeaten Chiefs.

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2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 6: WIN – Eagles 20, Browns 16
Week 7: WIN – Commanders 40, Panthers 7
Week 8: LOSS – Browns 29, Ravens 24
Week 9: WIN – Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 24 (OT)

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 6: WIN – Falcons 38, Panthers 20
Week 7: WIN – Bills 34, Titans 10
Week 8: WIN – Lions 52, Titans 14
Week 9: WIN – Eagles 28, Jaguars 23

[gambcom-standard rankid=”6305″ ]

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Who to take in Week 9 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 9.

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We were back to the upsets in NFL Week 8, as 5 teams favored by 2.5 or more points were beaten outright.

The Baltimore Ravens (-7), Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5), Miami Dolphins (-4.5), Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) and New York Jets (-7) were the teams to lose outright, and the Bengals, Dolphins and Jets were home favorites, which is even worse.

In Week 8 of the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest, we waved good-bye to 20 more contestants, leaving 41 of the 10,357 players still alive. We were starting to see some normalcy in October, but Week 8 bumped off nearly a third of the remaining players.

Last week, we went with the Ravens, who lost at home 29-24 to the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens entered on a 5-game win streak, while the Browns hadn’t scored more than 18 points in their first 7 games, and they lost QB Deshaun Watson to a season-ending injury. So, of course, Cleveland played its best game of the season. Ugh.

Our 2nd option was backing the Detroit Lions, and using a recent success strategy — fading the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans were actually hanging in there for a bit, answering the first 2 touchdowns by the Lions with scores of their own, before getting taken to the woodshed 52-14. It was tied 14-14 early in the 2nd quarter before the Lions scored 38 unanswered points in the rout.

Looking ahead to Week 9, we have 7 teams favored by 5 or more points, so there is a decent amount of favorites to select — the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers are off this week as byes resume. We’ll be playing against 2 Sunshine State squads.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– Games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Who they play: Home vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:22 a.m. ET.

Line: Chiefs -9 / Moneyline (ML): Chiefs -450 | Buccaneers +350

The Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) on Monday Night Football at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

A few weeks ago, this might be a game you wouldn’t consider for survivor pool purposes. However, the Buccaneers lost WR Chris Godwin for the season in a Monday night game against the Ravens in Week 7, while WR Mike Evans suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him out at least one more game after this.

The Chiefs are the lone unbeaten team in the NFL and have won 13 in a row dating back to last season. If this game were in Tampa, even without its top receiver personnel, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Bucs win at home. But on the road, no dice, as Tampa Bay is just too beaten up.

Conclusion: KANSAS CITY IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 9.

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No. 2 option: Philadelphia Eagles

Who they play: Home vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Eagles -7.5 / ML: Lions -350 | Titans +280

The Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) are more than a touchdown favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6), who are in a world of hurt.

Last week, the Jaguars lost WR Christian Kirk for the season due to a broken collarbone. WR Brian Thomas Jr. sat out with a chest injury and is expected to miss Week 9, too. WR Gabe Davis (shoulder) is also in doubt, which would leave WR Parker Washington as the top target for QB Trevor Lawrence, at least among the wideouts.

Lawrence also won’t have OL Cam Robinson, who was traded to the Vikings Wednesday. That leaves Lawrence even worse off as he’ll have less protection as he tries to find his receivers.

It’s actually surprising that this isn’t a double-digit spread. Look for the Eagles to get the job done and move survivor pool players along to Week 10.

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2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 6: WIN – Eagles 20, Browns 16
Week 7: WIN – Commanders 40, Panthers 7
Week 8: LOSS – Browns 29, Ravens 24

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 6: WIN – Falcons 38, Panthers 20
Week 7: WIN – Bills 34, Titans 10
Week 8: WIN – Lions 52, Titans 14

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Who to take in Week 8 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 8.

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In Week 7, things went somewhat according to plan in the National Football League, with the Kansas City Chiefs (+2), Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) and Seattle Seahawks (+3) posting the biggest upsets in terms of the spread. However, it’s unlikely many people were affected in survivor pools with those spreads of 3 or fewer points.

As a matter of fact, only 4 people were eliminated in Week 7 in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest, leaving 61 of the 10,357 players still alive. After a host of crazy upsets and unpredictable outcomes in the first 5 weeks, we’re starting to see some normalcy in October.

Both of our top options came through last weekend in the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills. Our No. 1 option, the Commanders, lost starting QB Jayden Daniels to a rib injury early in the game. It appeared storm clouds were forming, but QB Marcus Mariota turned back the clock and helped the Commanders to a 40-7 home blowout of the lowly Carolina Panthers.

The best strategy in the past couple of seasons has been to fade the Panthers. Carolina’s defense is allowing an unseemly 385.7 total yards (ranking 30th), 223.6 passing yards (25th), 162.1 rushing yards (last) and 34.7 points per game (last).

Our 2nd option saw the Bills beat the Tennessee Titans 34-10 in Buffalo. When the Titans jumped out to a 10-0 lead behind new QB Mason Rudolph, there was a little hand wringing going on.

However, the 10-point favored Bills were able to rattle off 34 unanswered points, while QB Josh Allen threw for 323 yards with 2 TDs. Buffalo was an impressive 4-for-6 in the red zone, and new WR Amari Cooper fit right in with 4 catches for 66 yards with a TD grab in his team debut.

Looking at Week 8, there are 8 teams favored by 6 or more points, so there is a wide array of teams to choose from.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– Games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Baltimore Ravens

Who they play: At Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 5:31 a.m. ET.

Line: Ravens -9 / Moneyline (ML): Ravens -450 | Browns +350

The Baltimore Ravens (5-2) travel to meet the Cleveland Browns (1-6) and

This line opened with the Baltimore Ravens (5-2) favored by 8.5 points. It ballooned to 10.5, and now it has leveled off at 9. There is sure to be a ton more movement, too, but in survivor leagues, we’re not terribly concerned with that. A win by any margin gets the job done.

Generally, it’s a good rule of thumb to avoid a road team whenever possible, at least until later in the season when it can be a necessity. Baltimore is the largest road favorite of the season, facing a Cleveland Browns team which doesn’t look very good and is 1-6.

In last week’s 21-14 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, Browns QB Deshaun Watson went down with a season-ending Achilles injury and QB Dorian Thompson-Thompson left with a finger issue. Veteran QB Jameis Winston will apparently get the starting nod in Week 8.

The Ravens are playing on a short week after winning at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41-31 Monday night, but the dynamic duo of QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry has been nearly unstoppable during the team’s 5-game win streak. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, and it might only need 20 points to get the W in Cleveland. The Browns haven’t scored more than 18 points in a game this season and are averaging a mere 15.6 points per game (PPG), which ranks 29th in the league.

Conclusion: BALTIMORE IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 8.

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No. 2 option: Detroit Lions

Who they play: Home vs. Tennessee Titans – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Lions -11 / ML: Lions -600 | Titans +425

The Detroit Lions (5-1) are the largest favorite of the season so far, and 1 of 2 double-digit faves on the board in Week 8. We could very well have 3, or even 4, favorites of 10 or more points by kickoff.

The Tennessee Titans (1-5) are terrible, although they showed some signs of life with Rudolph last Sunday. Still, after holding a 10-0 lead in Buffalo, the Titans never scored again, and ended up getting crushed 34-10.

The Tennessee offense has scored more than 17 points only once this season, and that came against a bad Miami Dolphins team playing with a 3rd-string QB — the Titans’ lone win, a 34-12 victory in South Florida.

The Lions have won — and covered — 4 games in a row since a stunning 20-16 setback at home in Week 2 to the Buccaneers as 7.5-point favorites. The Detroit offense is averaging 40.0 PPG in the past 3 games. Tennessee can’t compete with that kind of firepower.

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2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 6: WIN – Eagles 20, Browns 16
Week 7: WIN – Commanders 40, Panthers 7

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 6: WIN – Falcons 38, Panthers 20
Week 7: WIN – Bills 34, Titans 10

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Who to take in Week 7 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 7.

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Things went according to plan in Week 6 in the National Football League as 12 favorites ended up winning outright — they even covered in 11 of those games. And, the 5 favorites of 5.5 or more points ended up winning outright, too, so there were very few upsets.

In fact, in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest, just 5 people were eliminated in Week 6. There are still 65 of the 10,357 players who remain alive. After a wild first 5 weeks, things finally went the way the books suggested and there were no wild upsets.

As our 1st option last week, we were correct in taking the Philadelphia Eagles, coming off a bye week to get the job done against the lowly Cleveland Browns. Philly won 20-6.

While Cleveland managed just 244 total yards of offense with 5 sacks allowed and 7 penalties, it still made things rather close as it was tied 10-10 at halftime and Philly led just 13-10 after 3 quarters. In the end, the Browns covered as a 9.5-point underdog, one of just 3 dogs to bark in Week 6.

Our 2nd pick was backing the Atlanta Falcons on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Atlanta won 38-20.

The Panthers put up a good fight for a while. This game was tied 7-7 after 15 minutes and the Falcons led just 22-17 at the break. After 3 quarters, it was also a one-score game with Atlanta ahead 28-20. However, the Falcons pulled away in the 4th quarter for the comfortable 10-point victory — covering as 6-point favorites.

The Browns/Panthers fade strategy is an ace. Both are bad with a capital B, and the Browns just dealt WR Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills, taking away one of the few explosive weapons they had downfield.

In Week 7, we have 5 more teams favored by 5.5 or more points. Let’s hope the sense of normalcy remains this weekend.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– Games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Washington Commanders

Who they play: Home vs. Carolina Panthers – 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:26 p.m. ET.

Line: Commanders -7.5 / Moneyline (ML): Commanders -375 | Panthers +300

The Washington Commanders (4-2) put up a nice fight in Baltimore last week in the Battle of the Beltway, eventually falling 30-23 to the Ravens.

The Commanders offense has been explosive, which is not good news for the Carolina Panthers (1-5) defense. The Panthers have allowed 34 points or more, and 36.0 points per game (PPG), in the past 3 losses. Overall, Carolina has allowed 22 points or more in all 6 outings.

The Panthers switched from QB Bryce Young to QB Andy Dalton, and that has given the offense some life. But, losing DL Derrick Brown after Week 1, and LB Shaq Thompson in Week 4, to season-ending injuries, have exacerbated their problems. Carolina has so many holes to fill, and QB Jayden Daniels and the Washington offense will likely go wild at home in Week 7.

Conclusion: WASHINGTON IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 7.

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No. 2 option: Buffalo Bills

Who they play: Home vs. Tennessee Titans – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Bills -9 / ML: Bills -450 | Titans +350

Oh, you thought the Cincinnati Bengals here? It isn’t a bad pick, either, but they’re on the road in a rivalry game, so you never know.

The Buffalo Bills (4-2) are the biggest favorite on the board against the Tennessee Titans (1-4), and we haven’t used them this season as either the No. 1 or No. 2 option this season.

Buffalo looked OK against the New York Jets on Monday night in Week 6. It got the job done, however, with WR Khalil Shakir active, but not 100 percent, and rookie WR Keon Coleman coming along slowly, the Bills made a splash by landing Cooper prior to the deadline. He gives the Buffalo offense a legit WR1 who can spread the field, as the 2 young depth chart toppers were not scaring anybody.

It remains to be seen how many reps or targets Cooper will see, but it shouldn’t matter. Titans QB Will Levis is hot garbage, throwing for less than 100 yards last week against a leaky Indianapolis Colts pass D. The Titans do not have a prayer here.

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

NO. 2 OPTION

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[gambcom-standard rankid=”6305″ ]

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Who to take in Week 6 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 6.

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Well, we were back to the big upsets in Week 5 as the top 2 underdogs ended up winning outright. The Arizona Cardinals upset the San Francisco 49ers 24-23 and the New York Giants stunned the Seattle Seahawks 29-20. Both the Cardinals and Giants were 7-point road underdogs.

In the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest, just 69 of the 10,357 players remain alive. And, that’s just through 5 weeks! This season has been unreal in terms of just trying to pick teams straight up, let alone against the spread.

Unfortunately, our top survivor pick last week was the Seahawks, who were facing a Giants team that was missing super rookie WR Malik Nabers and starting RB Devin Singletary. The Seahawks were supposed cruise in this one, but Giants rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (129 rushing yards) and WR Darius Slayton (122 receiving yards, 1 TD) had other ideas.

At least picking against the Cleveland Browns remain dependable as we tabbed the Washington Commanders as our 2nd option in Week 5 and the Commanders rolled to a 34-13 home rout of the Browns. Cleveland is playing the role of last season’s Carolina Panthers, who finished 2-15.

The Browns did bite us once earlier this season — in Week 3 — when we picked them against the Giants, who won that game 21-15 in Cleveland. The Browns offense is horrendous and changes need to be made. Until then, keep fading ’em.

We have 5 teams favored by 5 or more points heading into Week 6, despite the fact 4 teams are again on a bye. That means a lot of lopsided matchups, or so it seems. Lately, even the games the books expect to be blowouts just have not been so.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– Games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Who they play: Home vs. Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:53 p.m. ET.

Line: Eagles -9 / Moneyline (ML): Eagles -450 | Browns +350

The Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) will get their chance to beat the Browns (1-4) like the rest of the NFC East teams have done so far. With a season-opening loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Browns are 0-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in 3 games against the NFC East with this last one to go.

On the flip side, the Eagles are coming off a bye, so this will be the healthiest they’ve been since Week 1. WRs A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) were able to take part in a padded practice Wednesday, indicating that they’re both trending toward a return after the extra week off.

If Philadelphia’s offense is back at full strength, that’s bad news for a Cleveland team which is already reeling. The Browns offense hasn’t scored more than 18 points in a game this season, putting a ton of stress on the defense. Eventually, the defense is going to break.

Conclusion: PHILADELPHIA IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 6.

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No. 2 option: Atlanta Falcons

Who they play: At Carolina Panthers – 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Falcons -6 / ML: Falcons -275 | Panthers +220

We’ll go back to our 2023 strategy and our early-season 2024 strategy in picking against the Panthers (1-4).

The Atlanta Falcons (3-2) aren’t coming off a bye, but they had a few extra days to heal and prepare since they hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Week 5 Thursday night game — Atlanta rallied for a 36-30 win in overtime.

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins erupted from his early season slumber, throwing for 509 yards (42 of 58) with 4 TDs and 1 INT against the Bucs.

With the Falcons offense rested and raring to go, facing a Panthers defense which has been horrific, this should be a good spot to pick Atlanta, even on the road.

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

NO. 2 OPTION

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[gambcom-standard rankid=”6305″ ]

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Who to take in Week 5 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 5.

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Finally, we had a little sense of normalcy in Week 4 as 2 of the 3 largest favorites on the road won outright. We did have a big upset as the New York Jets were a popular pick in the rain against the Denver Broncos, but the latter escaped with a 10-9 to oust plenty of players in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest.

The survivor contest was pared down even further, as 93 more players were sent to the “eliminated lounge.” Heading into Week 5, only 151 players remain out of 10,357 entries, which speaks to how difficult it has been to simply pick an outright winner in the topsy-turvy NFL so far.

We played it safe with the San Francisco 49ers as our top pick hosting the New England Patriots last week, and our No. 1 option finally came through after a host of upsets the first 3 weekends. The 49ers rolled to a 30-13 victory — covering to boot as double-digit (10.5-point) favorites.

Our 2nd option won, too, as the visiting Dallas Cowboys edged the New York Giants 20-15 on Thursday Night Football. A week earlier, the Giants topped the Cleveland Browns 21-15 in Week 3 to eliminate a ton of survivor entries, so we were conflicted going against the G-Men, especially at home … but it worked out.

If you’re still alive, congratulations. While, normally, it isn’t a big deal to still be alive in Week 5, this season has had a ton of minefields. In fact, this might be the most difficult season of a Survivor Pool contest ever.

It gets more difficult this week as byes start to kick in. That makes it more challenging. Plus, 11 of the 14 games have spread of 3.5 points or less, so there aren’t many clear-cut favorites.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– Games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Seattle Seahawks

Who they play: Home vs. New York Giants – 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:24 a.m. ET.

Line: Seahawks -6 / Moneyline (ML): Seahawks -275 | Giants +220

The Giants offense has struggled this season, going for 18 or fewer points in 3 of 4 their games. Who knows how bad this team would be without rookie WR Malik Nabers, who has really been the lone bright spot.

The Seahawks are coming off a 42-29 loss on Monday Night Football at the Detroit Lions, and now they play on a short week. The good news is that they’re home. Seattle is getting a lot healthier, too, as RB Kenneth Walker III returned from a 2-game absence, and he made up for lost time with 3 rushing TDs in the Motor City.

Seattle’s offense has scored 23 or more points in all 4 of its games, and QB Geno Smith, KW3 and WR DK Metcalf will be able to outlast the G-Men.

Conclusion: SEATTLE IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 5.

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No. 2 option: Washington Commanders

Who they play: Home vs. Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Commanders -3.5 / ML: Commanders -175 | Browns +145

The Commanders have been 1 of the best stories of the early season, winning 3 of 4 games, including road wins as underdogs against both the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals in the past 2 weeks.

Rookie QB Jayden Daniels looks like the real deal, perhaps finally giving Washington the franchise quarterback it has been craving for years.

The Browns thought they were trading for their franchise transforming QB with Deshaun Watson, but he has been a huge disappointment. The Commanders averaged 40.0 points per game the past 2 weeks, while the Browns haven’t scored more than 18 in all 4 of their outings this season. Cleveland simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up.

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21
Week 3: LOSS – Panthers 36, Raiders 22
Week 4: WIN – 49ers 30, Patriots 13

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3
Week 3: LOSS – Giants 21, Browns 15
Week 4: WIN – Cowboys 20, Giants 15

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

[gambcom-standard rankid=”6305″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

Who to take in Week 4 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 4.

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OK. It’s been impossible to pick a winner, just straight up, in the NFL this season. This is the most confounding regular season in recent memory just trying to pick a winner, forget about the spread.

In Week 3 alone, 9 underdogs won outright, including 5 favorites of 5.5 or more points. What’s down is up, and up is down. Teams that look like hot garbage 1 week are world beaters the next.

I know I’m not alone, as in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool, only 244 players remain out of 10,357 players. That means we lost 1,436 players in Week 3, or roughly 13.9% of the entrants.

We were picking on the Carolina Panthers again in Week 3. While they made a QB change to veteran Andy Dalton, they didn’t change out the awful defense. But, perhaps the defense was just more rested and less taxed, with the offense keeping the ball a little longer because Carolina looked like an NFL-caliber team again in a 36-22 beating of the Las Vegas Raiders on the road.

Our 2nd option, the Cleveland Browns, were stunned by the New York Giants at home as 6.5-point favorites. When you’re losing to QB Daniel Jones at home, it’s not a good look. Of course, potential Rookie of the Year WR Malik Nabers had a lot to do with that, hauling in 2 TDs.

At this point, you’re probably wondering why you’re still reading. Our 1st choice is 0-for-3. But, honestly, no one could have predicted all of these upsets. If you’re navigated the waters successfully, we salute you.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: San Francisco 49ers

Who they play: Home vs. New England Patriots – 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 1:43 a.m. ET.

Line: 49ers -10 / Moneyline (ML): 49ers -550 | Patriots +400

OK, not going to make some outlandish social media wager like a Florida State or Kansas State fan. IYKYK. But, if the Patriots bite me again, I swear …

This pick makes me nervous, even though the 49ers are the largest favorite on the board, and the 1st double-digit favorite of the NFL season. They’re missing RB Christian McCaffrey. They’re missing WR Deebo Samuel. DT Javon Hargrave is done for the season. TE George Kittle missed Week 3, and QB Brock Purdy had an MRI on his back. There is concern.

The 49ers are just not going 1-3, and not losing to the Patriots at home. Perhaps it’s not pretty. But, San Francisco is going to get the job done, or I’ll eat …

Conclusion: SAN FRANCISCO IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 4.

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No. 2 option: Dallas Cowboys

Who they play: At New York Giants – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

Line: Cowboys -5.5 / ML: Cowboys -250 | Giants +200

The Cowboys were getting routed by the Baltimore Ravens at home, trailing 28-6 before making a furious comeback in the 4th quarter. Dallas ended up losing 28-25, but there are some positive things it can take from the game.

Baltimore’s offense had the defenders for Dallas off balance for most of the game. There were QB runs with Lamar Jackson, a power run game with RB Derrick Henry or a few downfield shots. Dallas never knew what was coming. It’s a short week, but the Cowboys will face a little more traditional of a team, although it will have to contend with Nabers, who toasted the Browns for 2 scores last week in Cleveland.

Dallas has won 6 in a row in the series, and 9 of the past 10 since Sept. 8, 2019. That includes a 40-0 win in the Meadowlands last season, while outscoring New York 89-17 in 2 meetings in 2023.

Others to consider

Houston Texans: Home vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Texans -7.5 / ML: Texas -350 | Jaguars +260

New York Jets: Home vs. Denver Broncos – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Jets -7.5 / ML: Jets -350 | Broncos +280

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21
Week 3: LOSS – Panthers 36, Raiders 22

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3
Week 3: LOSS – Giants 21, Browns 15

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

[gambcom-standard rankid=”6305″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

Who to take in Week 3 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 3.

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Oh, come on! Yes, Week 1 was on me. I went with the largest favorites on the board and the Cincinnati Bengals bit me. I take ownership of that bad pick, even though no one saw that coming. But, a loss in Week 2 with the top option? Again?!?! That’s on, Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, coach Nick Sirianni and the defense. I am not taking blame for that one — a 22-21 stunning loss to the visiting Atlanta Falcons.

If you weren’t bitten by the New England Patriots — who upset the Bengals –in Week 1, ending your USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool hopes before they even began, I hope you didn’t roll with the Eagles in Week 2 Monday night ,,,

… because they collapsed in the most disgusting way possible.

The Eagles were up 18-15 inside the 2-minute warning and the Falcons had no timeouts lefts. On 3rd down, with less than 2 minutes to go, Sirianni and the Eagles tried a high-percentage toss to Barkley for a sure 1st down, which would have salted the game away, and perhaps it would have led to a touchdown, too. Instead, it was 4th down and the Eagles settled for a field goal.

Up 21-15, the Falcons moved the ball down the field in very, very short order, culminating in a WR Drake London TD grab in the front-corner of the end zone from QB Kirk Cousins. You like that? No. Not at all.

Our strategy was to play it safe for a 2nd straight weekend, rolling with another big favorite … and we lost with another giant upset. This one shouldn’t have happened, but, alas, it did.

Anyway, it isn’t easy. There were 10,357 entrants heading into the 2024 season, competing for a $5K prize in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor contest. Heading into Week 3, only 1,680 entries remain. In other words, 83.8% of all entrants have been eliminated.

For the 2nd week in a row, our 2nd option came through — this time with the LA Chargers. They pounded the Carolina Panthers 26-3, cashing as 4-point road favorites. In the first 2 weeks, 189 players have followed the exact same route, playing against the Panthers to advance — or stay alive in the contest.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Las Vegas Raiders

Who they play: Home vs. Carolina Panthers – 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:15 p.m. ET.

Line: Raiders -5.5 / Moneyline (ML): Raiders -250 | Panthers +190

The Panthers are sending QB Bryce Young to the bench in favor of veteran journeyman QB Andy Dalton, but the quarterback position is certainly not the only problematic area for Carolina. Young isn’t missing tackles. He isn’t struggling to stop the run. He isn’t the new coach finding his way.

The Raiders look like a lot more of a complete team, and this game is at Allegiant Stadium for their home opener. Las Vegas lost at the Chargers in Week 1 but rebounded with an overtime victory as 8.5-point underdogs at the Baltimore Ravens in another game which sent shockwaves through survivor pools everywhere.

The Panthers have led for a total of 10 seconds in the past 10 games. As such, it’s a tremendous strategy in survivor to play against — or fade — Carolina.

There isn’t much more to say. Will the “Red Rifle” (Dalton) make Carolina more of a functional NFL offense? Probably. But, the Panthers defensive woes won’t be solved by a change under center.

Conclusion: LAS VEGAS IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 3.

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No. 2 option: Cleveland Browns

Who they play: Home vs. New York Giants – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Browns -6.5 / ML: Browns -300 | Giants +240

The Browns went down to Jacksonville as 3-point dogs and they toppled the Jaguars 18-13 in Week 2, avoiding a disastrous 0-2 start.

On the flip side, the Giants went to the nation’s capital, and they made NFL history. It was not the kind of history a team can be proud of. New York became the 1st team in NFL history to score 3+ touchdowns, allow 0 TDs, and lose in regulation. Final score: Commanders 21, Giants 18. Ouch!

The good news for New York, which was a 1-point underdog, is that QB Daniel Jones was much better than he was in Week 1, tossing 2 TDs, including a hook-up with rookie WR Malik Nabers, a player on the rise. Jones didn’t have any interceptions either — he had 2 with no TDs in a 28-6 home loss in the season opener to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Giants face a tremendous defensive unit in Cleveland. Plus, they have some issues in the kicking game with PK Graham Gano on the injured reserve list. The G-Men signed PK Greg Joseph off the Detroit Lions practice squad to the active roster. The former FAU product kicked for the Browns in 2018, hitting 17 of 20 field goals (85.0%), including all of his kicks inside of 40 yards.

Playing against the Giants is almost as effective as playing against the Panthers, but Carolina doesn’t have a stud rookie like Nabers … or a decent defense.

Others to consider

Cincinnati Bengals: Home vs. Washington Commanders – Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ABC)

Line: Bengals -7.5 / ML: Bengals -375 | Commanders +280

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Home vs. Denver Broncos – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Buccaneers -7 / ML: Buccaneers -300 | Broncos +240

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

Who to take in Week 2 in your NFL survivor pool

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool as the season continues into Week 2.

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Hopefully you made it through the Week 1 disaster that was the Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately, we didn’t as we had the Bengals in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool. Cincinnati was upset as a 7.5-point favorite by the New England Patriots 16-10 last Sunday.

Our strategy was to play it safe, going with the largest favorite on the board, but it wasn’t meant to be.

It’s no surprise there was a good number of entries bounced by the Pats. Heading into the new season, 10,356 entrants had high hopes of winning the $5K prize in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor contest. Heading into Week 2, 5,379 entries remain.

At least our 2nd option, the New Orleans Saints, were able to rout the Carolina Panthers 47-10 to easily move on — the Saints were 3.5-point home favorites as 686 entries rode the Saints into Week 2.

Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.

– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Who they play: Home vs. Falcons – Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:20 a.m. ET.

Line: Eagles -6.5 / Moneyline (ML): Eagles -300 | Falcons +240

OK, let’s get on track in Week 2. The Eagles went down to Brazil and got the job done against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, winning 34-29 as a 1-point favorite. Was it pretty? No.

Philly managed 144 rushing yards and 266 passing yards, but it also lost a fumble while QB Jalen Hurts tossed 2 INTs. If the Eagles have a minus-2 turnover margin at home, it won’t fare very well.

The Eagles were also just 3-for-6 in red-zone efficiency, while committing 7 penalties for 57 yards. That’s good news heading into the home opener.

The Falcons lost at home as 4-point favorites to the Pittsburgh Steelers 18-10. Atlanta didn’t give up a touchdown, but the Falcons turned the ball over 3 times and couldn’t outscore 6 Pittsburgh field goals.

Philadelphia will be looking to add to the Monday Night Football woes of Falcons QB Kirk Cousins. He is just 3-10 in his career on MNF and has a cumulative record of just 12-20 in prime-time action for a .375 winning percentage.

Conclusion: PHILLY IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 2.

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

No. 2 option: LA Chargers

Who they play: At Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Chargers -6 / ML: Chargers -275 | Panthers +220

The Chargers racked up a 22-10 home victory as 3-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1, as coach Jim Harbaugh won his 1st game in his return to the NFL.

The Bolts were good for 176 yards on the ground, while adding 140 yards through the air. The defense did its part, too, picking off 1 interception and recovering 2 fumbles, going for a plus-3 in the turnover margin. That’s a good recipe for success, regardless of the opponent.

For the Panthers, we’ve picked on them time and time again the past 2 seasons. Using the Chargers on the road is risky business, but the Panthers are horrific. As mentioned, they had their doors blown off in New Orleans, losing 47-10. To make matters worse, Carolina lost its best defender in DL Derrick Brown to a season-ending knee injury.

Look for QB Justin Herbert and the Bolts to go on the road and get a victory. Plus, using the Chargers will help you burn a team you might only consider a few times a season, saving some of the big-name teams for later.

Others to consider

Baltimore Ravens: Home vs. Las Vegas Raiders – 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Ravens -8.5 / ML: Ravens -450 | Raiders +350

Washington Commanders: Home vs. New York Giants – 1 p.m. (FOX)

Line: Commanders -1.5 / ML: Commanders -125 | Giants +105

2024 survivor game log

NO. 1 OPTION

Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10

NO. 2 OPTION

Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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