The Kansas City Chiefs square off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55 in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida at 6:30 p.m. ET. One of the most decorated Super Bowl traditions is the extensive and exquisite Super Bowl prop bet menu, which ranges from coin flip results to who will score the last touchdown and everything else in between.
The stage is set, the Super Bowl odds are moving around and our Super Bowl prediction is set; now its time to focus on some profitable Super Bowl 55 prop bets to consider to add some extra excitement to Sunday’s game.
6 top Super Bowl prop bets
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:55 p.m. ET.
Tom Brady OVER 0.5 rushing yards (+145)
Obviously, Tom Brady brings a lot to the table but one of the things he’s mastered is the Art of the QB Sneak.
What generally happens when Brady shows off his sneaker-y is he hits a wide receiver on 3rd and long who gets stopped right at the sticks then Brady rushes to the line in order to catch the defense before it can get its heavy personnel on the field. If there was some crazy prop or derivative market on BetMGM where I could bet on this specific outcome, I’d place that bet at +10000 or greater.
Another factor in this bet is my personal Chiefs-Buccaneers handicap, which says Kansas City wins Super Bowl 55. If the Buccaneers aren’t winning at the end of this game, then Brady isn’t taking knees that could affect his rushing yardage. That would be a crappy way to lose this bet. But, Brady has rushed for one or more yards in six of his 11 career playoff losses.
Whether it be the way stated earlier or some other GOAT–scamper, Brady is going Over 0.5 rushing yards.
Chiefs to call first timeout (-110)
Brady is the GOAT and as prepared for championship moments as any American athlete ever. Essentially that greatly reduces a mental lapse from Tampa Bay’s offense and Brady having to use an early timeout.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is notoriously terrible at play clock management. Like, Reid was comically bad and everyone clowned on him. But, since he got the heir apparent to the QB GOAT, Patrick Mahomes, and won a Super Bowl, apparently all is forgotten.
Finally, the Chiefs have some injuries along the offensive line and Mahomes didn’t lock in until the second half of last year’s Super Bowl. Maybe this is far too much for a random prop but that’s what we are here for.
LISTEN: Hear Esten McLaren and myself on the latest Bet Slippin’ Podcast, the Super Bowl edition.
Chiefs S Tyrann Mathieu OVER 4.5 combined tackles (-115)
This was my best bet in last year’s Super Bowl (it might have been Mathieu Over 5.5 combined tackles), and he covered. Do you know why that is? It’s because the Honey Badger is great at football.
Mathieu has been one of the best defensive backs in the sport since he played college ball at LSU. And he’s always been a big-time player. For instance, Mathieu has six or more combined tackles in five of his seven career playoff games and in each of his bowl games in college.
Furthermore, the Honey Badger had five or more combined tackles in 10 of his 17 regular-season and playoff games this year, including against the Buccaneers in Week 12. Mathieu is a defensive Swiss Army knife who shows up in big games and he’ll be all over the field in the Big Game.
Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill OVER 5.5 rushing yards (-105)
Simple napkin and smartphone math gives this prop some value: Hill averages 8.4 rushing yards per game and 7.4 yards per attempt over his 74 career games. Granted, it’s not like BetMGM‘s team didn’t factor that into their prop pricing, just saying.
There’s additional value in my opinion due to the fact that Tampa Bay’s rush defense was one of the top units this season and Kansas City’s running back production has waned in recent weeks due in large part to the aforementioned injuries to the offensive line and to the running backs.
Reid has a track record of dialing up gadget plays and end-arounds, heck he called one in the AFC Championship for WR Mecole Hardman, who ripped off a 50-yard run. Also, Reid didn’t use a Hill end-around in the Week 12 game vs. the Buccaneers so he could pull that trick in the Super Bowl.
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Buccaneers WR Antonio Brown OVER 18.5 yards longest reception (-120)
We have to visit Narrative-Ville for this prop handicap because the recent numbers don’t really support Brown’s Over chances here.
So, TB and AB are bros, everyone knows that. TB allowed AB to stay with him when AB played for the New England Patriots for one game last season and they roomed together again earlier this season at Derek Jeter’s Tampa mansion.
And regardless of what anyone thinks of AB the person, AB the football player is an all-time wide receiver. He’s only played in one Super Bowl for the Pittsburgh Steelers in his rookie season, which Pittsburgh lost and AB had only one catch for three yards.
Reports indicate that AB “looked good” in practice this week and you know if he’s out there, his buddy TB is going to try to get him involved. Tampa Bay has two elite wide receivers and slot WR Scotty Miller has proven to be a weapon for the Bucs.
Finally, the prop market is generally sharper than sides and totals even though that’s not always the case in the Super Bowl since everyone bets the Super Bowl in a variety of ways. However, AB’s Over in his longest reception prop being more expensive does give me a little confidence the House wants Under action.
Also see:
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes OVER 329.5 passing yards (-120)
This one is at the bottom of my little props sheet here because it’s by far the squarest prop of them all. In fact, you know what I just wrote above about everyone betting the Super Bowl?
Well, most of Joe Public is going to take Mahomes Over his passing yards prop. Even people who like the Bucs to win the Super Bowl might hedge with Mahomes Over passing yards or just like the prop in general.
Although, I got a few reasons why I’m willing to head into Square-Ville for this prop. First, the Chiefs rushing offense is mediocre entering this game and Tampa’s rushing defense is elite. If that’s the case, why wouldn’t Reid spread out the offense and rely on Mahomes to sling it?
Second, which adds to my first point, in Week 12 against the Bucs, Mahomes passed for the second-most yards for a game in his career with the seventh-highest completion percentage.
Lastly, during the Bet Slippin’ Podcast episode handicapping the NFL Week 6 slate (1:13:06-1:14:50), when discussing the Chiefs-Bills game, I mentioned my theory that the Chiefs “saves their good plays for quality teams”.
The Super Bowl is the ultimate kitchen-sink game and I’m looking forward to Reid and Mahomes putting on a show.
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