At this point in time, there’s no real way to know how the coronavirus pandemic will affect things in any aspect of our lives through the rest of 2020. States are opening things back up on entirely different scales, which will likely lead to new cases in differing degrees in different parts of the country. There is no known antidote. And businesses around the world are trying to balance public health and safety with the survival of their professional entities.
The NFL is no different. Though the season isn’t slated to begin until September 10, the league is already running through all manner of scenarios based on where the pandemic might be at that point in time, and what the league will have to put in place. So far, the draft has been done virtually, rookies and veterans are trying to do virtual workouts with their teams, and the release of the 2020 schedule later this week seems just as virtual at this point. It’s a hopeful gesture, giving football fans a hypothetical glimpse of normalcy in a time where normalcy has increased exponentially in emotional value, but everything’s a crapshoot at this point.
Still, per NFL.com’s Judy Battista, the league is estimating that an on-time start to the season is possible… even probable.
Jeff Pash, the NFL’s executive vice president, said in late March that the league’s medical experts have been consulting with the Duke Infection Control Outreach Network, and have been shown models of the coronavirus curve in different countries, and which interventions have been effective.
“All of our discussion, all of our focus, has been on a normal traditional season, starting on time, playing in front of fans, in our regular stadiums, and going through a full 16-game regular season and full set of playoffs,” Pash said. “That’s our focus… That’s our expectation. Am I certain of that? I’m not certain I’ll be here tomorrow. But I’m planning on it, and in the same way, we’re planning on having a full season.”
Bjut Dr. Allen Sills, the NFL’s chief medical officer, said in early April that we might want to pump the brakes on that.
“I don’t think that I would interpret those comments to say that that is absolutely what’s going to happen,” Sills told Battista.
“I would say that’s everyone’s hope, that we are in a position to do that. But the reality is none of us know those facts for certain right now. We hope and pray for the best and prepare for the worst, realizing that is one potential outcome that we will be back fully in business playing games as normal in front of fans on schedule. But it’s certainly not the only outcome. And I think what was implied there was to say we are not at a point where we are saying that is absolutely not going to happen so we should continue our planning and preparations as if we’re going to be able to do that. But obviously we’re going to have to evaluate that along the way. And follow what the recommendations are from public health officials and from our infectious disease experts and others.”
Sills also said that if the league is in a position where one person involved in preparation for a game tests positive for the virus, leading to quarantine, “I don’t think you can begin to think about reopening a team sport. Because we’re going to have positive cases for a very long time.”
But on Saturday, league spokesman Brian McCarthy told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler that at this point, the plan is to move forward as if there will be no obstruction to the season starting on time. And if those obstructions occur, to have the 2020 season with various possible contingency plans.
“If we have to make adjustments, we will be prepared to do so based on the latest guidance from our medical experts and public health officials and current and future government regulations,” McCarthy said. “We made adjustments and conducted safely and efficiently key offseason activities such as free agency, the virtual off-season program and the 2020 NFL draft.”
There’s a lot that has to happen before we can entertain the thought of a full — or even an abbreviated — season. The NFL is unlikely to even open team facilities, much less stadiums, until every state with an NFL team lifts its stay-at-home orders. Minicamps will likely have to be held virtually through may, and there’s no sense whether training camps — which generally start in late July — will start on time. That brings the specter of player preparation and injury prevention into the forefront, along with a thousand liability concerns that range from player health and safety to how to get 70,000 people into a stadium at any point in at least the next year.
Games on Saturdays. An abbreviated season. No bye weeks. A Super Bowl at the end of February. Every contingency is on the table, and though it appears there will be an NFL season in 2020, the league is just trying to run through all the simulations. Claiming that the season will start on time is a harmless speculation, but at this point, a speculation is all it is.