With the season under 70 days away, let’s rank Cleveland Browns starter Deshaun Watson among the other 31 starting quarterbacks.
Any sort of connotation the Cleveland Browns have with quarterbacks has not been positive. With the infamous jersey, the fully guaranteed $230 million contract that continues to be an over-talked-about subject, multiple failed first rounders, and more, the Browns have enough tiles of quarterback cliches to play bingo with. But they are hoping Deshaun Watson changes the tides in Cleveland and becomes the quarterback they hoped they were getting when investing a great deal of money into (and built their roster around!).
With training camp still three weeks away, the talking points are minimal. So to kill time, I have ranked all 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Where does Watson fall in this ranking?
Mahomes stands alone atop the QB heap. There’s some unexpected company chasing him in the top 10, however.
In the end, 2022’s top quarterback was no surprise. Despite challenges from Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith — it was an exciting and slightly weird year! — Patrick Mahomes ultimately stood head and shoulders above the fray.
Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to the AFC’s top seed (albeit controversially thanks to the cancellation of Week 17’s Bills-Bengals tilt), led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns by a comfortable margin and, unsurprisingly, was the league’s most efficient quarterback in terms of advanced stats.
His adjusted expected points added per play — a measure that compares a player’s impact against what an average player historically has done in the same situation — was a robust 0.306. Essentially, he made the Chiefs a field goal better than expected every 10 dropbacks he took.
This was enough to outpace Tagovailoa, Hurts, Smith, Josh Allen and … fellow top 10 quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff? Huh. Well, like I said, exciting year. Let’s get into it.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 272 plays, or 16 per game) that looks like this:
via RBSDM.com
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
Advanced stats say Prescott is the third-most efficient quarterback in the NFL. What does that mean for the Dallas Cowboys?
Dak Prescott is 19-8 as a starting quarterback the past two seasons. His 6.2 percent touchdown rate is second-best to only Joe Burrow since 2021. He is, in the purview of advanced stats like expected points added and completion percentage over expected, one of the most efficient passers in the NFL.
He also leads the league with 14 interceptions despite missing five games this season. His 95.8 passer rating is his lowest in five years. His 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt is nearing a career worst.
This makes Prescott’s Schrodinger’s quarterback. He is simultaneously good and bad, the outcome depending on your observation of him. He’s capable of roasting the Minnesota Vikings to a crisp or losing his stroke and coughing up a 28-14 fourth quarter lead to the Green Bay Packers in consecutive weeks.
But while conventional numbers aren’t keen on a quarterback who’s been the victim of some bad luck and deflected interceptions, the advanced numbers love him. Following last week’s Thursday Night Football win over the Tennessee Titans — a game in which Prescott was responsible for more than two touchdowns of added value — he’s vaulted into the top three quarterbacks, a hair behind division rival Jalen Hurts for second place behind Patrick Mahomes.
That’s enough to spark debate for weeks to come. And fortunately for us, we’ve got data on 32 other starting quarterbacks to pore through in order to parse out this week’s rankings.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 256 plays, or 16 per game) that looks like this:
via RBSDM.com
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
Mahomes has breathing room between himself and the rest of the NFL’s QBs. Jalen Hurts’ injury may have sealed his crown.
The data backs up what Kansas City Chiefs fans have known for a long, long time. Patrick Mahomes is the most valuable quarterback in the NFL.
Mahomes and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts have passed the top odds for league’s most valuable player award back and forth throughout the back end of the 2022 season. Now that a reported shoulder sprain seems destined to cut Hurts’ campaign short, it feels like a predetermined result that the man with the $500 million contract will add his second MVP award to an already distinguished resume.
Even a rejuvenated Hurts, or the players directly behind him — Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith somehow — would have a difficult time catching Mahomes in the advanced stats rankings. The Kansas City star hasn’t just built his castle in 2022 but dug a moat to separate him from the very good quarterbacks trying to usurp his claim.
There’s plenty of intrigue further down the ranks. Both Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff have overcome uneven 2021 seasons and awful starts to 2022 to lead their teams into the playoff hunt as top 10 passers. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, well, still kinda stink. And Zach Wilson has been slightly less embarrassing in his role as the Jets’ fill-in starter. For now.
What else do advanced stats tell us about this year’s starting quarterbacks?
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 224 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
Tua Tagovailoa’s bad day opened the door for MVP favorite Mahomes to claim the top spot in the advanced stats rankings.
Tua Tagovailoa had his worst game of the 2022 season in Week 13. His Miami Dolphins not only lost, but lost to a San Francisco 49ers team led by 2022 262nd overall draft pick Brock Purdy.
This dented Tagovailoa’s MVP odds, but it wasn’t enough to dislodge him from the top spot in the advanced stats quarterback rankings. He may not claim that crown much longer — Patrick Mahomes, the odds-on favorite to win the league’s highest individual award, is hot on his heels despite a Week 13 loss of his own.
Those two are followed by Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith. As we all expected back in August.
Yep, this year’s crop of top quarterbacks has been the backdrop to impressive leaps forward from questionable passers and terrible slides from established veterans. Hurts and Smith are light years ahead of guys like Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and (big exhale) Russell Wilson this fall. Just how far ahead? Fortunately, we’ve got a formula for that.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 192 plays) that looks like this:
via RBSDM.com
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
Dak Prescott’s ability to avoid negative plays has him rising. Trevor Lawrence and Derek Carr? Also up. Russell Wilson? Not up. At all.
Dak Prescott is throwing interceptions at a career-worst rate. He’s had five since returning to the Dallas Cowboys’ lineup in Week 7.
But he’s been pretty good in every other facet of the game — including letting his running backs take over — and the Cowboys are 4-1 since then. Prescott is averaging more than 250 passing yards per game and has more touchdowns than turnovers and sacks combined. That’s led him to rise up the advanced stats leaderboard … all the way into third place thanks to a small sample size and some underwhelming opponents.
Prescott will almost certainly backslide at some point, but it might not come in the next three weeks with games against the Indianapolis Colts (who have a decent passing defense, but not top 10), Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars (who do not) on the schedule. Would that be an accurate reflection on the Cowboy quarterback? Probably not, but it wouldn’t hurt to keep building him up in what’s been a more trying season than his numbers suggest.
Other movers this week include Trevor Lawrence (up four spots), Derek Carr (same) and Russell Wilson (down three spots and barely a top 30 quarterback). What else have we learned over 12 weeks of the 2022 NFL season?
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 34 quarterbacks (minimum 176 plays) that looks like this:
via RBSDM.com
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
Prescott’s hot streak since returning from injury has the Cowboys streaking toward the top of the NFC. Can he keep it up?
The Dallas Cowboys are staking their claim as the best team in the NFC. While a swarming defense and Tony Pollard’s rise as an elite playmaker are undeniable pieces of this ascension, the most important factor may be the man behind center.
Dak Prescott has shaken off an ugly start to his 2022 season — a terrible showing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, which included the broken thumb that cost him five games — to reclaim his place at the center of the Cowboys’ offensive universe. Sunday’s game was Prescott’s best of the season, a 22-of-25 performance that saw him find the end zone twice and effectively sit out the fourth quarter of a 40-3 win.
That’s propelled him from 17th to eighth in this week’s quarterback rankings, leapfrogging players like Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson in the process. He’s recorded a passing rating over 100.0 in three of his four games since returning to the active lineup. Dallas, unsurprisingly, is 3-0 in those contests.
He’s still got plenty to prove, but as of now — roughly halfway between opening night and Super Bowl 57 — Prescott is a top 10 quarterback. Let’s see who’s keeping him company after 11 weeks of the 2022 season.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 35 quarterbacks (minimum 160 plays) that looks like this:
via RBSDM.com
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
Tom Brady bucked the trend of top fantasy quarterbacks needing to be able to give you something with their legs, as he finished third in total points last season. That’s what a 43-touchdown season will do.
Matthew Stafford was another statue to crack the top five with his 41 touchdowns. Those guys are fading from existence, however, as the mobile quarterback continues to dominate fantasy. The only question here is which to take first.
Josh Allen showed what he’s capable of in the playoffs against Patrick Mahomes, who’s still great. And Lamar Jackson will also be a factor in his return from injury. Those are just a few of the guys named below in this ranking of the top 25 quarterbacks in fantasy football.
