Tag: NFL prop bets players predictions best bets

NFL Prop Bet Payday: Wild Card Weekend player prop predictions

Assessing the NFL Wild Card Weekend matchups and highlighting the best player prop bets to make based on the odds at BetMGM.

The NFL has dubbed this weekend Super Wild Card Weekend because for the first time there will be tripleheaders both Saturday and Sunday. For those looking to head to the pay window, we’re offering up player prop bet predictions for each of the six games on NFL Wild Card Weekend.

NFL Wild Card Weekend prop bet payday

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:15 p.m. ET.

You Joshing Me?

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has an Over/Under for passing yards of 310.5 (Over: +105, Under: -128).

The Under number is a big one that might get some bettors to shy away, but the combination of a strong Indianapolis Colts defense, two teams with respectable rushing ability and the potential the Bills will take the air out of the ball if they get a big lead combine to make that number difficult to hit.

TAKE THE UNDER 310.5 (-128).

Sleepless in Seattle

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson historically doesn’t light up the Los Angeles Rams defense. His Over/Under for passing yards is 253.5 (O: -105, U: -118).

It seems like a reasonable number, but, Wilson hasn’t hit 254 yards in eight of his last nine games against the Rams and this doesn’t look like the game he will break the longstanding trend.

TAKE THE UNDER 253.5 (-118).

Also see: Rams at Seahawks odds, picks and prediction

Special NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Promotion!

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The Buc Doesn’t Stop Here

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady and his passing weapons will likely get the headlines prior to the game against the Washington Football Team, but the most important Buccaneers offensive player Saturday may be RB Ronald Jones.

His Over/Under for rushing yards is 55.5 (O: -140, U: +115). The Bucs have the ability to make a run and if they jump out early on Washington, Jones could see 20-plus carries. If he gets 15 rushes, he can top that small number, so this one seems too easy.

TAKE THE OVER 55.5 (-140).

Also see: Buccaneers at Washington odds, picks and prediction

Oh (No), Henry

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry has an Over/Under for rushing yards of an astronomical 120.5 (O: -105, U: -118). He averaged more than that this season, and he also shredded Baltimore’s defense last year in the playoffs to send the No. 2 seed home.

Two things play against a huge game this time around. The Ravens have a solid run defense that will be selling out to make someone other than Henry beat them and the Ravens have the ability on offense to roll up a big score with an oppressive run game of their own. I love Henry, but with such a huge starting baseline number, I reluctantly have to say TAKE THE UNDER 120.5 (-118).

Where There’s a Wil, There’s a Lutz

A typically shy away from kickers because it’s the least predictable position for prop bets. If an offense is clicking, they may score 5 points – all on extra points. An offense that struggles in the red zone may score 12 points in a game – all from a kicker on chip-shot field goals.

With the Saints, you have a team capable of scoring touchdowns, but one protective of the ball when in scoring position. PK Wil Lutz has an Over/Under of 7.5 points (O: -115, U: -110)) against the Chicago Bears. Chicago made the playoffs on the back of defense that allows almost as many field goal attempts as touchdowns. Lutz should get his chance to kick two or three field goals, especially if the Saints are milking a lead.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

Also see: Bears at Saints odds, picks and prediction

In the Nick of Time

The Cleveland Browns are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and RB Nick Chubb was a consistent factor in the games they won. He gets fed the ball 15-20 times per game and helps Cleveland control tempo and game flow. Chubb’s Over/Under for rushing yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers is 65.5 (O: -125, U: +100).

He has rushed for more than 90 yards in two of the last three meetings with Pittsburgh, including 112 yards last week. With Pittsburgh abandoning the run, the Browns will need to control tempo and the best way to do that is feed the ball to Chubb 15-20 times and Kareem Hunt 5-10 times.

TAKE THE OVER 65.5 (-125).

Also see: Browns at Steelers odds, picks and prediction

Want action on these NFL props? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL Prop Bet Payday: Week 17 player predictions

Assessing the Week 17 NFL matchups and highlighting the best player prop bets to make based on the odds at BetMGM.

Week 17 is annually one of the stranger scenarios in the NFL. Some teams who are out of contention tend to just lay down their star players while others try to close strong. We have a mixed bag of NFL player prop bet picks and predictions for this week – one from a game with two teams looking to lock down playoff spots or positioning, one with neither team having a chance to make the playoffs and three where one has something at stake at the other doesn’t. Those are the ones that can be the most interesting

NFL Week 17 player props

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Jolly Rodgers

The Green Bay Packers control their own destiny to wrap up the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, while the Chicago Bears need a win to guarantee they make the dance. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has an Over/Under of 296.5 passing yards (Over: -105, Under: -115).

The Bears defense is what has them on the brink of the playoffs by not allowing huge chunk plays. Rodgers is having an MVP season, but that seems a little too high for a division game played tight to the vest with so much at stake.

TAKE THE UNDER 296.5 (-115).

Also see: Packers at Bears odds, picks and prediction

Boston Rob

Early in the season, there were a lot of questions about why Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski and QB Tom Brady weren’t continuing the magic they built with the New England Patriots down in Tampa Bay but that has changed in the second half of the season.

Gronk has an Over/Under for receiving yards against the Atlanta Falcons of just 31.5 (O: -115, U: -105). With Brady’s Over/Under for passing yards at 306.5, it seems likely given how he spreads the ball around that Gronk can have 32 or more yards.

TAKE THE OVER 31.5 (-115).

Also see: Falcons at Buccaneers odds, picks and prediction

Special NFL Betting Promotion

Bet $1 on ANY team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) IF any team scores a touchdown Sunday. Promotion available in CO, IN, NJ, TN and WV. PA residents, don’t miss BetMGM‘s risk-free, first-bet offer! MI residents, BetMGM is coming to your state soon — register early for special promotion.

Place your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM! New customer offer, terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Hooked on a Thielen

The Minnesota Vikings have been a disappointment on defense, but they have been posting big offensive numbers all year. They close out their season at the Detroit Lions and WR Adam Thielen has an Over/Under for receiving yards of 67.5 (O: -118, U: -105).

The Lions pass defense has been brutal and, without Vikings RB Dalvin Cook in the lineup to carry the ball 25 times, Minnesota will likely have to throw more to win the game and Thielen is always a first-look for QB Kirk Cousins.

TAKE THE OVER 67.5 (-118).

Also see: Vikings at Lions odds, picks and prediction

Taylor Made

The Indianapolis Colts need to win to make the playoffs and potentially win the AFC South. RB Jonathan Taylor has an Over/Under for rushing yards of 83.5 (O: -115, U: -105).

The Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t won since Week 1 when they beat the Colts. There is some payback on multiple levels for this one and Taylor is going to be the player the offense leans on to build a lead and hold it once they get it. Twenty carries should be viewed as a minimum here and 83.5 yards is easy to hit against a bad defense with that sort of volume.

TAKE THE OVER 83.5 (-115).

Action Jackson

Occasionally I like to take the simple bet of whether a guy is going to score a touchdown. Since they were mired at 6-5, the Baltimore Ravens have been playing playoff football since the beginning of December. Any losses were likely going to eliminate them from the playoffs the way the records laid out.

QB Lamar Jackson goes up against the Bengals and is a very palatable +110 to score a rushing or receiving touchdown. Over his last four games, Jackson has rushed for four touchdowns because he knows he needs to play at an MVP level to keep the winning streak going. Make it 5-for-5.

TAKE JACKSON TO SCORE A TD (+110).

Also see: Ravens at Bengals odds, picks and prediction

Want action on these NFL props? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL Prop Bet Payday: Week 16 player predictions

Assessing the Week 16 NFL matchups and highlighting the best player prop bets to make based on the odds at BetMGM.

Christmas has come and gone, and you already want the relatives out of your house so can enjoy a long weekend of football. Here are five prop bets for Sunday that should help ease some of the pain of holiday overspending and send you to the pay window.

NFL Week 16 prop bet payday

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Taylor Made

The Steelers have been in freefall after starting 11-0 and losing three straight. Much of the problems have been pinned to an ineffective, one-dimensional offense, which has led to Pittsburgh’s defense being on the field much more than it should. Indy RB Jonathan Taylor has an Over/Under for rushing yards of 54.5 (-105 Over, -115 Under). Pittsburgh has one of the best run defenses in the league, but, over his last four games, Taylor has rushed 71 times for 414 yards. It won’t be a cake walk, but TAKE THE OVER AT -105.

Also see: Colts will be without both OTs against NFL’s best pass rush

Elementary My Dear Watson

The Texans are playing to the Bengals, who are coming off one of their best games of the season with a win over Pittsburgh. DeShaun Watson has an Over/Under for passing yards of 275.5 (-105 Over, -115 Under).. The Bengals aren’t going to the playoffs (everyone else in their division probably will), but their defense isn’t as ratty at their record would indicate and Watspm doesn’t have his full complement of weapons. TAKE THE UNDER at -115.

Also see: What is the key for Texans WR Keke Coutee to see more playing time? Protect the ball

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Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Ball ‘Hawk

Chris Carson has been battling a foot injury, but he is clearly Seattle’s No. 1 rushing threat. Against a Rams defense that has strong front, his Over/Under for rushing yards is a pedestrian 49.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under). The Rams are going to be looking to attack Russell Wilson to keep him in the pocket, which will lead to less blitzing and more positioning. All Carson needs to do is pop one run for 15-20 yards, and he will hit this number. TAKE THE OVER at -110.

Also see: Seahawks activate TE Greg Olsen, DT Bryan Mone off injured reserve

There’s Gold in the Red Zone

The Kansas City Chiefs can lock down the No. 1 seed in the AFC and earn a first-round bye against Atlanta’s brutal defense. All eyes will be on Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, but tight end Travis Kelce is breaking records of his own. To bet on Kelce scoring a touchdown, you have to bet -165. Kelce has scored touchdowns in each of his last three games and four of his last five. It’s not a stretch to think the Chiefs will score four or five touchdowns in this game. How can they do that without T.K. getting at least one of them,? TAKE KELCE TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN at -165.

Also see: Breaking down Chiefs’ RB options with Clyde Edwards-Helaire sidelined

Revenge Not Always Best Served Cold

Last season, Melvin Gordon was humbled by holding out for a long-term contract with the Chargers and was rebuffed – reporting back with his tail between his legs and being allowed to walk in free agency. He’s back in L.A. to face the Chargers as a member of the Broncos, and there is a belief that he could have a big day with an Over/Under for rushing yards of 73.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under). While there is something to be said about revenge plays, the Chargers know their former teammate all to well and will commit to bottling him up and forcing Drew Lock to beat them. Welcome home, Mel! TAKE THE UNDER at -110.

Also see: Broncos place Phillip Lindsay on IR, update injury report for Week 16

Want action on these NFL props? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL Prop Bet Payday: Week 14 player predictions

Assessing the Week 14 NFL matchups and highlighting the best player prop bets to make based on the odds at BetMGM.

This week in the NFL is going to give us a clearer vision of who is and isn’t a legitimate playoff team. Much will be learned this week and these are five individual players we’re keeping an eye on to take bettors to the pay window with our top Week 14 player prop bet picks and predictions.

NFL Week 14 prop bet payday

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:10 a.m. ET.

In Godwin We Trust

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin is the big-play deep threat in the offense. The Minnesota Vikings have the youngest cornerback group in the NFL this year after a purge of veterans in the offseason. They have been exploited by every veteran QB they have faced, including Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan.

Bucs QB Tom Brady is ready to add his name to that list. With an Over/Under for receiving yardage of 65.5 (Over: -110, Under: -115), Godwin may only need two or three receptions to hit that number.

Take the OVER 65.5 (-110).

A Christmas Corey

Tennessee Titans WR Corey Davis has quietly become the go-to receiver for QB Ryan Tannehill. He has an Over/Under for receiving yards of 65.5 (O: -115, U: -105). In the 10 games he has played this season, he has gone over that number seven times, including each of the last four.

RB Derrick Henry and WR A.J. Brown get more notoriety, but Davis has done his job and has done it consistently. Coming in against a suspect Jacksonville Jaguars defense only makes it more obvious how you should be betting this one.

Take the OVER 65.5 (-115).

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The Man with the (Green and) Golden Arm

Many were convinced Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers‘ best days were behind him. The drafting of Jordan Love in the first round of this year’s draft seemed to be the first step in pushing Rodgers out the door much like he had helped orchestrate with Brett Favre.

A funny thing happened on the way to putting Rodgers out to pasture. He’s having his most statistically dominant season in years, but when is too much? His Over/Under for passing yards against the Detroit Lions is 314.5 (O: -118, U: -105). He has topped that number just three times in his last 17 meetings with the Lions and this one should be no exception to that established rule.

Take the UNDER 314.5 (-105).

The Zeke Shall Inherit the Earth

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott is having the worst season of his career, averaging just 65 yards per game on the ground. QB Dak Prescott being gone and a ravaged offensive line are enough to help explain his decline, but he’s heading into Cincinnati to be the primary guy in the offense despite QB Andy Dalton‘s return to Bengals Country.

Elliott’s Over/Under for rushing yards is 73.5 (O: -105, U: -115) and he should be in line for 20 carries.

Take the OVER 73.5 (-105).

Get Off the Bus, Russ

The Seattle Seahawks are hosting the New York Jets, in what should be a blowout. In those instances, once a coach like Pete Carroll gets a lead, he tends to grind out the clock. With a strong run game to help milk the clock, QB Russell Wilson‘s Over/Under for passing yards is 284.5. That isn’t unusual because that’s roughly what the Jets defense allows on average.

Carroll will want to run the ball and take advantage of a lead to get in and get out without putting his QB at risk by dropping back too often.

Take the UNDER 284.5 (-110).

Want action on these NFL props? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Also see:

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL Prop Bet Payday: Week 13 Player Props

Assessing the Week 13 NFL matchups and highlighting the best player prop bets to make based on the odds at BetMGM.

With the final byes coming this week – no players from Tampa Bay or Carolina playing this week – the NFL is trying to avoid the mythical Week 18 of its schedule. That’s why, once again, we’re going to have two Monday games and welcome Tuesday Night Football back to the mix.

We’ve taken a look at some of the prop bet odds and lines that don’t make a lot of sense to us and have come up with a handful of predictions we believe will take you to the pay window in the NFL’s Week 13.

NFL Week 13 player props

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated 9:15 a.m. ET.

King of the Hill

New Orleans Saints QB Taysom Hill is far from conventional and the Saints rolled past the Denver Broncos last week despite rarely throwing the ball. That can’t happen against an Atlanta Falcons offense capable of putting up 30 points. Hill’s Over/Under for passing attempts is 25.5 (Over: -121, Under: +100).

Given the lines, it’s clear that the bookmakers expect Hill to have to throw often if the Saints are to beat the Falcons. He will.

TAKE THE OVER.

Leader of the Pack

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has had a renaissance season and has looked like the Rodgers of MVP vintage. Coming up against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has been shredded much of the season, Rodgers has a lofty passing yardage Over/Under of 280.5 (O: -110, U: -112). The Packers don’t need to be pass-happy to put down the grounded Eagles.

Look for RBs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams to do more than their fair share and prevent Rodgers from throwing 35-40 times and still win comfortably.

TAKE THE UNDER.

Special NFL Betting Promotion

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Movin’ On Up

The Minnesota Vikings get WR Adam Thielen back from his COVID-19 quarantine against the Jacksonville Jaguars, so he will likely be the focus of the Jaguars’ defensive attack – what there is left of that.

WR Justin Jefferson has made his case not only to be the best wide receiver in the deepest rookie WR class in draft history, but he is making a case to be Offensive Rookie of the Year. His Over/Under for receiving yards is just 68.5 (O: -112, U: -110). He has become QB Kirk Cousins’ primary go-to threat 20 or more yards down the field. He will only need a couple of those to hit the number and there will be opportunities available.

TAKE THE OVER.

A Rivers Runs Through It

One of the great fantasy football anomalies has been the Indianapolis Colts. With one of the league’s best defenses, the offense has been as nondescript as any in the league. QB Philip Rivers shares the wealth with everyone and nobody gets rich. Eight receivers have more than 200 receiving yards, but nobody has more than 408. That’s why Rivers’ Over/Under for passing yards doesn’t make much sense at 277.5 (O: +100, U: -121) against a Houston Texans team that is finally looking like the team that has consistently gone to the playoffs.

Look for Houston to pressure Rivers and make him earn his yardage in smaller chunks.

TAKE THE UNDER.

Don’t Hate the Drake

The Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams have gotten into their share of passing shootouts over the last few years and the anticipation is that this week will be no exception. The rushing yards prediction for Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake of 49.5 yards (O: -106, U: -115) is shockingly low for a guy who gets the majority of the snaps for an offense capable of using the run or pass to do damage to defenses.

TAKE THE OVER.

Want action on these NFL props? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL Prop Bet Payday: Week 11 player prop predictions

Assessing the Week 11 NFL matchups and highlighting the best player prop bets to make based on the odds at BetMGM.

Week 11 in the NFL faces several prominent matchups which could have major impacts on the 2020 playoff picture. Here are five NFL player prop bets for Week 11 we think will help bring you to the pay window this week.

NFL Week 11 prop bet payday

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.

Too Many Cooks

Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook has been on a tear and Minnesota has been riding him. Last Monday against the Chicago Bears, he ran 30 times. While asking that number again may be difficult 20-25 isn’t out of the question.

His Over/Under for rushing yards is 103.5 (Over: -115, Under: -106). I typically don’t like to take the Over for any running back when it’s over 100 yards, but this is Cook in 2020 and this is the Dallas Cowboys defense. TAKE THE OVER.

Special NFL Week 11 Betting Promotion

Bet $1 on ANY TEAM’S money line Sunday, WIN $100 (in free bets) if ANY team scores a touchdown during Sunday’s NFL action. Place your legal, online sports bets in CO, IN, NJ, TN and WV at BetMGM, The King of Sportsbooks!

New customer offer, terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

No Place Like Mahomes for the Holidays

That wariness of 100 yards as a betting line for a running back or a receiver, the same goes for setting an Over/Under of 300 passing yards for a QB. In Sunday night’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has an Over/Under of an absurd 320.5 yards (O: -106, U: -115).

While Mahomes is capable of topping 320 any week, making that the baseline number is wrong. TAKE THE UNDER and hope the Raiders run a lot.

He-e-e-e-re’s Jonnu!

The Baltimore Ravens haven’t had many defensive weaknesses, but they have been susceptible to giving up plays to tight ends. Tennessee Titans TE Jonnu Smith has quietly become a weapon for the Titans, who had a long history of solid, but unspectacular weekly efforts from Delanie Walker. There is a key role for a tight end in this offense and Smith is working his way into it.

His Over/Under for receiving yards is 28.5 (O: -112, U: -110). The Ravens are going to be attacking on defense to stop RB Derrick Henry. Smith should be a safety valve check-down on at least four of those attacks. TAKE THE OVER.

Special Tennessee Betting Promotion: Make any $1 bet on the Tennessee Titans, get $100 (in free bets) in your account. Regardless of how the Titans do in Week 11 vs. the Baltimore Ravens, you win! Place your legal, online sports bets in Tennessee at BetMGM, The King of Sportsbooks! New customer offer, terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Carson’s Comedy Classic

There seems to be a misplaced love for Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz love when it comes to his Over/Under numbers. It’s always too high and he so rarely hits it. His Over/Under is 246.5 passing yards (O: -110, U: -112).

He has topped that number just twice in the last eight games and the Cleveland Browns have the ability to shorten the game by running. As with anything else related to the NFC East, if you get your expectations up, you will be disappointed. TAKE THE UNDER.

Lucky Seven

There are some numbers that are so small they’re worth rolling the dice on because you only need one play at any point in a game to hit it. Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has an Over/Under for rushing yards of 6.5 (O: -110, U: -112). The Colts defense is legit and, while sack yardage won’t count against Rodgers’ rush total, Indy is going to bring pressure to get Rodgers off his spot in the pocket.

All he needs to do is avoid the initial pressure and he will have the opportunity to run with nothing but Green in front of him. TAKE THE OVER and hope the Victory Formation doesn’t come into play late in the game.

Want action on these NFL props? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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