NFL Week 11 picks against the spread

Every Week 11 picked and predicted against the spread.

Getting Thursday night picks right apparently mean having terrible afternoons. That’s two weeks in a row where the afternoon games sunk a great week. Back to the .500 mark though.

To the picks!

Point spreads were provided by Bet MGM.

Week 8 record: 7-6

Season record: 73-73

CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh

These teams are having this weird Freaky Friday season where the Steelers have the record the Browns should have, and the Browns have the record the Steelers should have. There’s an off chance this is Freddie Kitchens’ final game as the Browns’ head coach.

Pick: Browns (-2.5)

New Orleans (-5.5) vs. TAMPA BAY

The Saints lost to the Falcons last week, which either means they’re not very good, or they’re due to bounce back in a big way in Tampa.

Pick: Saints (-5.5)

CAROLINA (-5.5) vs. Atlanta

PREDICTION: Christian McCaffrey goes off and we really ramp up the “McCaffrey for MVP” conversation where everyone jumps back on the ‘running backs are valuable again’ train way too fast.

Pick: Panthers (-5.5)

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville

This game is the Nick Foles of NFL games.

Pick: Jags (+3.5)

MINNESOTA (-10.5) vs. Denver

There’s a really strong chance John Elway vastly overpays Kirk Cousins sometime in the very near future.

Pick: Vikings (-10.5)

WASHINGTON (-1.5) vs. New York Jets

Do you know who’s going to be the loser in this game? Everyone who watches it.

Pick: Jets (+1.5)

Buffalo (-5.5) vs. MIAMI

The combined winning percentage of teams the Bills have beaten is .214. That is the lowest mark in the AFC by a pretty substantial margin.

Pick: Dolphins (+5.5)

BALTIMORE (-4.5) vs. Houston

There’s not a more fun matchup all year than Lamar Jackson vs. Deshaun Watson. Two young, exciting quarterbacks playing at MVP-caliber levels. Sign me up.

Pick: Ravens (-4.5)

SAN FRANCISCO (-11.5) vs. Arizona

11.5 points is a lot for a team as beat up as the 49ers are, especially since they only beat the Cardinals by three two weeks ago.

Pick: Cardinals (+11.5)

New England (-3.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA

If the Eagles are going to make a Super Bowl run, it’ll have to start Sunday against the Patriots.

Pick: Patriots (-3.5)

OAKLAND (-10.5) vs. Cincinnati

THE RAIDERS ARE FAVORED BY 10.5 POINTS!

Pick: Raiders (-10.5)

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5) vs. Chicago

Mitchell Trubisky has to face a defense with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Hopefully he can turn the TVs off at halftime.

Pick: Rams (-6.5)

KANSAS CITY (-4.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

There is not a more confusing team in the league than the Chargers, who are either terrible or a Super Bowl contender.

Pick: Chiefs (-4.5)

Patriots-Eagles odds: New England road favorite over Philadelphia in Week 11

Analyzing the New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles Week 11 NFL match up, with NFL betting odds, lines, picks and best bets

The Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) play host to the New England Patriots (8-1) Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field. Here, we focus on the Patriots-Eagles odds and lines, while providing NFL betting tips and advise on this key Week 11 NFL matchup.

Patriots at Eagles: Week 11 preview, betting trends and notes

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The Patriots are coming off a bye. In their last game, the Baltimore Ravens handed them their first loss of the season with a convincing 37-20 beating. It was a good loss at a good time for the defending Super Bowl Champions.
The Eagles are also coming off a bye. They beat the Chicago Bears 22-14 in Week 9, which was their second consecutive win.
Since 2003, the Patriots have won four of the six matchups vs. the Eagles. New England has lost the last two, including a 41-33 loss during Super Bowl LII.
The Patriots are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, but 3-2 on the road. They’re 3-6 against the Over/Under (O/U), and 1-4 on the road.
The Eagles are 4-5 ATS, while 2-2 at home. They are 5-4 vs. the O/U, with a 2-2 record at home.

Patriots at Eagles: Key injuries

Eagles LT Jason Peters (knee), WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle) and RB Jordan Howard (shoulder) are all dealing with injuries. Peters and Howard were limited Wednesday, Jeffery missed practice.

Patriots at Eagles: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:45 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Patriots 24, Eagles 20

Special BetMGM prop line

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Moneyline (?)

The PATRIOTS (-186) are the play; and, while still chalky, the juice isn’t nearly as painful as usual. You can thank the Ravens for that. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has a .736 win percentage following a bye. Brady is 13-4 following a bye. While the Eagles (+155) might be enticing, it’s a hard pass here.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Patriots returns a profit of $5.38 with a New England victory.

Against the Spread (?)

The Patriots are favored by three-and-a-hook, which is a teasing line (-106). Don’t take the bait. In the Eagles’ four losses, they’ve either been blown out or played it very close. This spread is too dangerous to wager and the best bet here is no bet at all. AVOID.

Over/Under (?)

With 44.5 points slated as the total and both teams returning from a bye, this feels like it will be a game of chess and that number will be a razor-thin margin on my projections. The UNDER (-115) is the play, but just a small-unit wager.

Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Ryan’s NFL-pick record: 18-10

Follow @RyanBonini and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Falcons-Panthers odds: Carolina favored in NFC South battle

Previewing Sunday’s Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers sports betting odds and lines, with Week 11 NFL matchup analysis and picks.

The Atlanta Falcons (2-7) play a second straight NFC South rivalry game in Week 11 when they visit the Carolina Panthers (5-4) Sunday at 1 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium. We analyze the Falcons-Panthers odds and sports betting lines, while providing sports betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Falcons at Panthers: Week 11 preview, betting trends and notes

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The Falcons returned from their bye at 1-7 and beat the New Orleans Saints 26-9 in a dominant road effort this past Sunday.
The Falcons have won the last three and six of the last seven head-to-head meetings dating back to Dec. 27, 2015.
Carolina ranks seventh in the NFL with 131.4 team rushing yards per game. Atlanta ranks 29th and is now without starting RB Devonta Freeman for at least two weeks due to a foot sprain.
Only nine teams allow more total yards per game than the Falcons at 371.8. Three teams allow more points per game than the 28.8 given up by Atlanta.
The Falcons have no interceptions and have surrendered 17 passing touchdowns since Week 3. The Panthers have averaged 1.57 INTs per game since Week 3.
The Panthers allow a league-high 83.3% completion rate on opponent passes in the red zone.

Falcons at Panthers: Key injuries

Falcons TE Autin Hooper (knee) joins Freeman on the sideline. CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is questionable after sitting again in Week 10. Backup RB Ito Smith (neck) is out for the season.

Panthers DB James Bradberry (groin) sat out Week 10. DL Kawann Short (shoulder) and QB Cam Newton (foot) are out for the year.

Falcons at Panthers: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Falcons 27, Panthers 24

Moneyline (?)

The Panthers are 2-2 straight up at home while the Falcons improved to 1-4 as the visitors with last week’s road win. While Atlanta is without two key pieces of the offense, it still has red-zone threats in WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Back the FALCONS (+210) to keep it rolling following last week’s emotional win.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Falcons to win would return a profit of $21.

Against the Spread (?)

The FALCONS are also a fine play on the spread of +5.5 at -110 odds to lose by five or fewer points, or win outright. They’re just 3-6 against the spread and fail to cover by an average of 4.5 points, but the Panthers are just 2-2 ATS at home and Atlanta has dominated this matchup.

Over/Under (?)

Grab the OVER 50.5 (-110) with key defensive injuries. Carolina is 6-3 against the Over/Under while Atlanta is 3-6. The Falcons have a neutral differential against the totals through nine games with the Panthers plus-4.4 against the projections.

Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Esten’s NFL betting record: 23-29

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Steelers-Browns odds: Cleveland favored in TNF battle with Pittsburgh

Previewing Thursday Night Football’s Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns sports betting odds and lines, with NFL Week 11 picks and tips.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) and Cleveland Browns (3-6) clash in an AFC North battle in Week 11’s Thursday Night Football matchup at First Energy Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. We analyze the Steelers-Browns odds and sports betting lines within, while providing sports betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Steelers at Browns: Week 11 preview, betting trends and notes

Special BetMGM New Jersey New Customer Prop Bet!

BET $1, WIN $100 in free bets if Browns QB Baker Mayfield completes a pass against the Steelers Nov. 14, 2019. Place your bet now!
Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

The Steelers enter Week 11 as winners of four straight games, including a 17-12 upset of the Los Angeles Rams on home field in Week 10.
The Browns snapped a four-game losing streak with a 19-16 home win over the Buffalo Bills.
Cleveland ranks 26th in the NFL with 19.0 points per game. Pittsburgh is 19th with an average of 21.4 points per game.
The Browns are 19th with 348.4 total yards of offense per game. The Steelers are 28th with 288.8 total yards. Cleveland averages 40 more rushing yards per game.
The Browns allow 24.6 points per game while the Steelers hold the opposition to just 20.1. Pittsburgh allows an average of 332.2 yards of offense to Cleveland’s 356.0.
The Steelers defense has not allowed a rushing touchdown on 84 carries since Week 6.
Pittsburgh ranks second in the NFL with a plus-13 turnover differential. Cleveland is minus-8.
The Steelers rank second with 33.0 sacks this season.

Steelers at Browns: Key injuries

Steelers RB James Conner (shoulder) sat out Week 10.

Browns DL Olivier Vernon (knee) missed Sunday’s game.

Steelers at Browns: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:45 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Browns 24, Steelers 20

Moneyline (?)

The Browns got their first home win of the season in Week 10 and are 1-3 at First Energy Stadium. Pittsburgh is 1-2 on the road. Back CLEVELAND (-149) as a conservative home favorite on the short week with no travel.

Against the Spread (?)

The BROWNS (-2.5, -120) are just 2-6-1 overall against the spread. They’ve lost by an average of 5.6 points per game and fall 4.9 points shy of the cover. Pittsburgh (+2.5, +100) is 6-3-0 and covers by an average of 1.6 points.

With the projection of a field goal, however, take the home side as they’ll need to win by just three points for a $10 bet to return a profit of $8.33. The same wager on the moneyline nets a $6.71 return.

Over/Under (?)

Both teams are coming off low-scoring games in Week 10, as Cleveland and Pittsburgh played to point totals of 35 and 29 points, respectively. It followed the season trend for both sides of playing below the projected total.

Thursday’s number of 40.5 seems like an over-correction for a divisional clash. Take the OVER (-120).

Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Esten’s NFL betting record: 23-29

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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