Fantasy football draft season is upon us and we’re facing a potential NFL season unlike any before. NFL teams were largely restricted to virtual-type workouts for most of the summer, NFL preseason games were canceled and the first look most of us will get this year is when teams hit the field in Week 1.
How should a fantasy football player tackle building their fantasy football team this year? We sat down with David Dorey and Cory Bonini, from TheHuddle.com fantasy football services, to ask them that very question — and other key items surrounding the upcoming season.
Fantasy Football Strategy Entering 2020
SportsbookWire (SBW): Gentlemen, thank you for taking the time to sit down with us. It has been quite an offseason. Big names changed teams, a virtual NFL Draft, no offseason on-field training, no preseason games; the list goes on and on! How do you plan to approach your fantasy football drafts after such a roller-coaster spring and summer?
David Dorey (DMD): This year places a premium on teams that are returning the same players, coaches and schemes. The Panthers, Browns, Broncos, Jaguars, Giants, and Washington Football Team all feature an overhaul of coaches and will be installing new offenses. While the top players from each are still as valuable in fantasy football, all others are much less certain to perform to expectations.
Another consideration that cannot be overvalued is to leave the rookies alone this year other than the handful of running backs that should see appreciable workloads.
Wide receivers need time to learn their role and gain chemistry with their quarterback and they’ve been short-changed by the pandemic. That will depress what any of them can do, particularly early in the season when you cannot afford a slow start for your team.
Cory Bonini (CJB): The primary theme I find myself adhering to draft after draft is investing as heavily as possible in continuity. I’ll take my chances with teams that have had as little turnover as possible. I’m avoiding rookies the best I can, especially at wide receiver and tight end, but a handful of running backs are still appealing. It’s the easiest position to learn. I’m expecting the first month or so of the season to be sloppy, which has me more interested in team stacks in traditional leagues than ever before.
SBW: Glad you both touched on rookies. Generally, there are at least a handful of rookie players who stand out and become weekly starts for fantasy football teams. With rookies largely forced to learn away from their team, do you see that curtailing their first-year production? How are you projecting them?
CJB: It will hamper rookies, particularly all but running backs. Even then, only a few are really worth investing more than a late-round pick. There are intriguing risk-reward decisions to be made in players like Cam Akers, Brandon Aiyuk, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, etc. — it requires the opportunity to generate fantasy points to actually generate fantasy points. Raw talent tends to win out, and the combination of that with opportunity has me warming up to Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. Projection-wise, my expectations are held in check across the board.
DMD: There is reason to downgrade running backs much other than their roles as a receiver may start a bit slower from a lack of preparation time. But the basics of rushing the ball are the same in college and the NFL, with only some nuances in how the play is blocked. As mentioned, receivers face a daunting task to learn the plays and mesh in the offense. Our fantasy football projections take that into account. There are a handful of rookies – Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Pittman Jr., Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor, and Brandon Aiyuk, who have a realistic chance of starting and that has to be weighed. From a fantasy sense, rookie receivers are almost always over-valued and this year is far worse than any other in getting players ready for the season.
SBW: All that said, which rookie players would you still try to draft this year in your fantasy football drafts? And, where do you think is the proper draft value for them in a standard 12-team, PPR scoring league?
DMD: I’m an admitted junkie for rookie running backs and even a pandemic is not going to stop me. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the back that everyone will want and he’s going in the second half of the first round now. While that is probably overly aggressive, Kareem Hunt was the No. 3 fantasy running back in the NFL in his rookie season on that team. I’m much more likely to look for Jonathan Taylor in the fourth round or Cam Akers in the fifth round.
CJB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire should enjoy the strongest rookie running back season, although I have little interest in paying up for him. Jonathan Taylor is going at an extreme premium, and there’s no way I’m paying that price. I’m more likely to spend a later pick on a flier receiver, like Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs or Bryan Edwards. I have invested a few earlier picks in Cam Akers (Round 6 or 7) and D’Andre Swift (Round 6) due to the more palatable price tags.
SBW: Pivoting from there to sleeper fantasy football picks, please share with us some of your must-own players this season.
CJB: Raheem Mostert, Jace Sternberger, Diontae Johnson, Chase Edmonds, Boston Scott, Bryce Love, Hunter Renfrow, Justin Jackson, Chris Herndon
DMD: Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Miles Sanders, Raheem Mostert, Hayden Hurst, T.Y. Hilton, Marvin Jones
SBW: Let’s tackle fantasy football busts: Which player(s) are you avoiding at all costs?
DMD: Josh Allen, Sam Darnell, Nick Chubb, David Johnson, Evan Engram, Stefon Diggs, Devante Parker
CJB: Josh Allen, Lamar Miller, A.J. Green, Stefon Diggs, David Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Sony Michel
SBW: Can’t let you out of here without a sports-betting take, too! If you budgeted $200 on NFL futures bets, how would you spend that on this year’s potential Super Bowl winner? (side note: Place your legal NFL wagers at BetMGM in CO, IN, NJ and WV. Sign up and bet now!)
CJB: It’s tough to bet against the Chiefs, Ravens and Saints, but I’m not writing off San Francisco again, either. It depends upon when you catch me and ask me to make the bet. If I’m feeling brave, the bet is Seattle. Catch me in a “feeling safe” moment, I’m going with KC.
DMD: Finally, not the Patriots. This is going to be a wild season but, again, a premium on the intact, veteran teams with minimal changes to incorporate. I’d split my bets with $100 safe money on the Chiefs to return and $100 on the Saints with Drew Brees finally getting back.
The 2020 season will be a wild roller coaster. Times like this require fantasy football expertise from TheHuddle.com more than ever. Get in the game and have The Huddle on your team; act now and take $10 off this year’s subscription price with the discount code SBW20 and gain access to the Huddle’s custom scoring for your league, rankings and cheat sheets now. Act fast, as this offer expires August 23rd, 2020 at 11:59 p.m. ET.
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