NFL fantasy football draft – Page 2

When to pick Melvin Gordon in your fantasy football draft

Assessing Denver Broncos RB Melvin Gordon’s 2020 ADP and fantasy football draft value. Is he a sleeper or bust? Undervalued or overvalued?

Fantasy football is in the air, and the unique offseason is causing more questions than answers as we enter our fantasy football drafts. Today we focus on Denver Broncos RB Melvin Gordon and his fantasy football potential this year.

Melvin Gordon’s fantasy football ADP

Average Draft Position on MyFantasyLeague: 50.06 (12 teams, PPR redrafts)

22nd among RBs

Reasons to draft Melvin Gordon

A former Los Angeles Charger who switched AFC West locales this offseason in free agency, Gordon is currently ranked 21st among fantasy backs by The Huddle, but how many other backs in that range have had three straight top-eight fantasy finishes in the last four seasons? At 27, Gordon is still in his prime and over the last four seasons, only Ezekiel Elliott (60) and Todd Gurley (48) have scored more touchdowns than Gordon’s 47. Elliott (980.4) and Gurley (976) also are the only non-quarterbacks with more standard-scoring fantasy points than Gordon’s 804. That’s a recent track record that’s hard to pass up.
Not only is Gordon a prolific TD scorer, but he’s a viable pass-catcher as well with at least 41 receptions in each of his last four seasons. Since his 2015 rookie campaign, only seven running backs have caught more passes than Gordon’s 224. It’s a role he should slip into nicely as the Broncos are looking for a more reliable pass-catching weapon out of the backfield under new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur and second-year QB Drew Lock.
Outside of the top dozen or so fantasy RBs, questions and uncertainty abound. They do with Gordon as well, but after 15 backs or so have come off the board, Gordon’s credentials and ceiling will stand out when comparing running back resumes.

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Reasons not to draft Melvin Gordon

By most all accounts, Gordon is headed for a near 50-50 timeshare split with incumbent Denver RB Phillip Lindsay, who is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and 227-plus touches. Royce Freeman, a 2018 third-round pick, who had 175 touches of his own last season, also could still be in the mix. In short, Gordon could be in for a repeat of 2019 when he had 204 of the Chargers’ 488 RB touches (41.8 percent) as he finished with career lows in touches and rushing yards (612).
Whether it be injuries or ill-conceived contract holdouts, Gordon has only played a full season once in five years, playing in 12 contests in each of the last two seasons. Perhaps his heavy workload, which included 569 touches over his final two college campaigns at Wisconsin, is resulting in some wear and tear.
Now, true, yards per carry and yards per touch aren’t fantasy stats, but Gordon never has been the most efficient of performers. In four of his five NFL seasons, he’s averaged less than four yards per carry, including 3.8 last season, and he ranked 40th among RBs in 2019 with an average of 4.5 yards per touch – his lowest mark since a 3.8 in his rookie season. That explosive big-play potential you want in a strong fantasy back seems to be missing with Gordon.

Should I draft Melvin Gordon?

Yes, but at the right value. If you’re considering him in the third round as a high-end RB2, it’s a reach. Target Gordon in the fifth round as a solid RB3.

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When to pick Jonathan Taylor in your fantasy football draft

Assessing Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor’s 2020 ADP and fantasy football draft value. Is he a sleeper or bust? Undervalued or overvalued?

Fantasy football season is in the air and the unique offseason is causing more questions than answers as we enter our fantasy football drafts. Today we focus on Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor and his fantasy football potential this year.

Jonathan Taylor’s fantasy football ADP

Average Draft Position on MyFantasyLeague: 38.23 (12 teams, PPR redrafts)

Reasons to draft Jonathan Taylor

Taylor was highly productive in all three seasons for the University of Wisconsin, rushing for 6,174 yards and 50 touchdowns in 41 career games.
At the NFL Combine, Taylor tested like an elite athlete, running a 4.39 40-yard dash at 226 pounds. He’s got ideal size and explosiveness as he projects as a workhorse back in the NFL.
Not only will the Colts return all five of their offensive linemen this season, but they continue to be one of the best run-blocking units in the NFL.

Reasons not to draft Jonathan Taylor

Despite an incredibly productive college career, Taylor caught only 42 career passes at Wisconsin. And with passing-down specialist Nyhiem Hines on the Indy roster, it seems unlikely Taylor will see many targets as a rookie.
Taylor will open up the season behind veteran RB Marlon Mack, who rushed 1,091 yards and eight touchdowns in 14 games last season. Even if Taylor is eventually named the starter, Mack will see touches, as well.

Where should I draft Jonathan Taylor in fantasy football drafts?

Coming into the 2020 NFL Draft, Taylor was widely regarded as the best pure running back in the draft. Taylor was a superstar at Wisconsin, finishing inside the top 10 in Heisman voting in all three of his collegiate seasons.

Taylor wound up as the second RB drafted in his class, landing in an ideal situation with the Indianapolis Colts. Playing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, Taylor could quickly become one of the favorites to lead the league in rushing if given a full workload. However, that is the rub with Taylor.

He is currently expected to split snaps with veterans Mack and Hines, who were both effective last year with the Colts. While Taylor could eventually win the starting job in time, he will likely be part of a committee for most of the season.

Taylor is currently being drafted at the bottom of the third round in 12-team leagues with his ADP rising by the day. He is currently the 17th running back off the board and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he surpassed players like Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette in the upcoming days.

While Taylor could be stuck in a committee to start the season, the upside is enormous. If given 18 to 20 touches per game, it’s not hard to see him having a Josh Jacobs-like rookie season with even more touchdown potential. And if the Colts embrace him as a full-time lead back, it’s not inconceivable that he could finish the season as a top-five running back.

Given that his price tag is still relatively cheap considering his talent level and the situation, don’t be afraid to spend a third-round pick on Taylor in your drafts. He could easily outproduce his ADP by midway into the season.

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Should you select Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock in your fantasy football league draft?

Analyzing Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock’s 2020 ADP and fantasy football draft value. Is he a sleeper or bust? Undervalued or overvalued?

Fantasy football is in the air, and the unique offseason is causing more questions than answers as we enter our fantasy football drafts. Today we focus on Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock and his fantasy football potential this year.

Drew Lock’s fantasy football ADP

Average draft position on MyFantasyLeague: 137 (12 teams, PPR redrafts)

Min. pick: 38

Max. pick: 306

Reasons to draft Lock

The 23-year-old Lock is brimming with upside after he recovered from a preseason wrist injury/injured reserve stint and finished his 2019 rookie season with a flourish. He won four of his five starts while completing 64.1 percent of his passes, throwing seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Lock’s best outing was a 38-24 road win over the eventual AFC South-champion Houston Texans, completing 22 of 27 attempts for 309 yards and a trio of TDs. Lock also flashed some mobility, rushing for 72 yards on 18 attempts. All in all, it arguably was the best quarterback play the franchise has seen since Peyton Manning’s heydays in 2012-14, and the Broncos have fully entrusted the young QB with the keys to the offense, jettisoning veterans Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen.
The Broncos doubled down on their faith in Lock, spending their top-two draft picks on WRs Jerry Jeudy of Alabama and KJ Hamler of Penn State and adding Lock’s Missouri college teammate, TE Albert Okwuegbunam, in the fourth round. In free agency, they added RB Melvin Gordon, adding to an impressive young corps which already included Pro Bowl WR Courtland Sutton, second-year TE Noah Fant and back-to-back 1,000-yard rusher Phillip Lindsay. Expect the Broncos offense to be noticeably improved in 2020 after ranking 28th in scoring and total yards a year ago, and Lock figures to be one of the top fantasy beneficiaries.

Reasons not to draft Lock

While Lock’s above-mentioned big afternoon in Houston did produce 28.9 fantasy points, he didn’t score more than 16.2 points or top 208 passing yards in his other four starts. That is not top-30 fantasy QB material, and we simply need to see more.
Going back to his final season at Missouri, Lock is learning his third new offense in as many years with the Broncos bringing in new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur along with several new players. But with COVID-19 shuttering offseason team activities and the preseason, it’s a horrible year to be learning a new offense and developing continuity. Don’t be surprised if that results in a slow first half of the season for Lock and Co.
When you have the likes of Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Jared Goff and Tom Brady ranked in the teens, that’s fantasy QB depth. Even if you prefer young potential to aging veterans, you likely still can choose from a group that includes the Cleveland Browns’ Baker Mayfield, the New York Giants’ Daniel Jones and Cincinnati Bengals rookie Joe Burrow in addition to Lock.

Should I draft Drew Lock?

In standard 10- and 12-team leagues, probably not. The Huddle currently has Lock ranked 23rd among fantasy QBs and that’s two-QB league and superflex territory. Better to have Lock on your early-season waiver radar and swoop in if he gets off to a hot start.

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When to pick Kenyan Drake in your fantasy football draft

Analyzing Arizona Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake’s 2020 ADP and fantasy football draft value. Is he a sleeper or bust? Undervalued or overvalued?

Fantasy football season is in the air and the unique offseason is causing more questions than answers as we enter our fantasy football drafts. Below, we focus on Arizona Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake and his fantasy football potential this year.

Kenyan Drake’s Fantasy Football ADP

Average Draft Position on MyFantasyLeague: 18.87, RB13

Min. Pick: 2

Max. Pick: 73

Reasons to draft Kenyan Drake early

We start with momentum. From Week 9 through the end of the 2019 regular season, Drake was ther fourth-ranked running back in terms of total fantasy points. During that span, following his trade acquisition from the Miami Dolphins, Drake racked up 131.4 fantasy points in eight games, rushing for 643 yards, adding 171 more yards receiving and scoring eight touchdowns.
A 2016 third-round draft pick out of Alabama, Drake played 54 games over 3.5 seasons with the Dolphins but started only 16 contests and, more importantly, received 15 or more carries in a game only twice. He doubled that number in his first eight games with the Cards, averaging 15.4 attempts per contest. Overall, Drake averaged a strong 18.9 touches per game in Arizona after averaging only 8.3 per outing during his time in Miami.
Head coach/offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s debut season in the desert produced only mediocre statistical results as the Cardinals ranked 16th in scoring and 21st in total yards per game. Considering the context – a first-year NFL coach, a rookie quarterback and a poor offensive line – the raw numbers are more impressive. Also factoring in rookie QB Kyler Murray won Offensive Rookie of the Year and the Cards netted Pro Bowl wideout DeAndre Hopkins in a trade, all of the signs are there for one of the league’s up-and-coming offenses.

Reasons not to draft Kenyan Drake early

Sure, Drake was awesome as aforementioned in the season-ending eight-game stretch, but that’s all we’re talking about: Eight games out of a largely lackluster four-year NFL career. Moreover, almost 70% of his Arizona fantasy production came in just three of those eight games. The Dolphins weren’t exactly overflowing with backfield talent during Drake’s tenure and it’s more than fair to wonder why he didn’t get more run with the franchise which drafted him.
Going hand-in-hand with the above, Drake easily hit career highs last season with rushing attempts (170) and total touches (220). His Miami bests were 133 (2017) and 173 (2018), respectively. That makes Drake a relatively fresh 26-year-old NFL back, but it also makes him an unproven one. It’s safe to wonder if he can shoulder an RB1 workload over a full season.
A potential RB1’s most formidable obstacle often is getting caught up in a timeshare in his own backfield, and there’s ample potential for that in the desert with third-year back Chase Edmonds showing some definite flashes last season (150 total yards, three TDs in a Week 7 win over the Giants) before a hamstring issue hobbled him most of the campaign’s second half. Kingsbury praised Edmonds recently, saying he has the skills to be a starting running back. If a tight 1A and 1B situation develops this season in Arizona, Drake could wind up with low-end RB2 production instead of being a No. 1 back.

Also see:

Where should I draft Kenyan Drake in fantasy football drafts?

Drake appears to be more than a fantasy flash in the pan, but it’s still going to be a bit of an uneasy feeling if he winds up as your No. 1 running back. Ideally, he’s best taken as a No. 2 back late in the second round/early in the third.

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Should you pick Christian McCaffrey 1st overall in your fantasy football draft?

Analyzing Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey’s 2020 ADP and fantasy football draft value. Is he a sleeper or bust? Undervalued or overvalued?

Fantasy football season is in the air and the unique offseason is causing more questions than answers as we enter our fantasy football drafts. Today we focus on Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey and his potential to be the No. 1 overall selection this year.

Christian McCaffrey’s Fantasy Football ADP

Average Draft Position on MyFantasyLeague: 1.20 (12 teams, PPR redrafts)

Min. Pick: 1

Max. Pick: 5

Reasons to draft McCaffrey No. 1 overall

The third-year pro simply had a season for the ages in 2019: A league-leading 2,392 yards from scrimmage on 403 total touches, including only the third 1,000-1,000 rushing-receiving season in NFL history and tying for the league lead with 19 total touchdowns. It added up to 353.2 standard-scoring fantasy points and a full 70.6 points more than any other running back and 127.6 more than any other position player outside of quarterbacks.
As you no doubt gleaned from the above, “Run CMC” also is a pass-catching monster. He led all backs in 2019 with 142 targets, 116 receptions and 1,005 receiving yards. His 116 catches were an NFL single-season running back record — eclipsing his own mark of 107 set in 2018. That gave him a whopping 469.2 fantasy points in point-per-reception formats — 150.4 more than second-place Aaron Jones.
With the depth at wide receiver, selecting an elite running back remains the way to go at the top of the first round. And with McCaffrey clearly ranking at the top of the most important fantasy position, the choice is that clear and simple with the No. 1 overall pick.

Reasons not to draft McCaffrey No. 1 overall

The 400-touch curse is real. According to ProFootballReference.com, there have been 44 seasons in league history where a running back has amassed 400-plus touches in a season. Not including McCaffrey, 18 of those have transpired since 2000. On average, the last eight 400-touch backs prior to 2019, had an average of 108.6 fewer touches, 806.5 fewer total yards and 131.5 fewer fantasy points (141.3 PPR) in their ensuing season. The wear-and-tear of the 400-touch workload clearly seems to manifest itself in the raw statistical decreases.
McCaffrey remains Carolina’s unquestioned top weapon, but the rest of the offense has undergone an extreme makeover. There’s a new head coach – a first-year NFL coach – in Matt Rhule. There’s also a first-year pro offensive coordinator in Joe Brady and there’s a new quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. That’s a lot of change.
While McCaffrey still figures to see a boatload of touches, there’s an argument to be made Rhule and Co., might want to diversify the attack a little more after McCaffrey’s whopping 52.5% team touch share occurred in a 5-11 season – the franchise’s worst record in a decade.
McCaffrey wasn’t the only player making history in 2019. New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas caught a record 149 passes, and with wideouts’ year-to-year fantasy consistency being more reliable than running backs’, there’s Thomas’ case for the No. 1-overall pick, particularly in PPR.
Then there was second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson becoming the first NFL QB with a 3,000-yard passing season and 1,000-yard rushing season while shattering the quarterback single-season rushing record with 1,206 yards. That certainly makes Jackson worthy of the No. 1 pick – especially in two-quarterback leagues.

Where should I draft Christian McCaffrey in fantasy football drafts?

If you own the first-overall selection in a 2020 fantasy redraft league, going with McCaffrey is Plan A through Y.

Anyone else is Plan Z.

Just don’t expect another historical season — they’re called historical for a reason — but everything is in place for another No. 1 RB fantasy campaign, and you’re hopping right back on the Run CMC train with that No. 1 overall draft pick.

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When to pick Dak Prescott in your fantasy football draft

Analyzing Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott’s 2020 ADP and fantasy football draft value. Is he a sleeper or bust? Undervalued or overvalued?

Fantasy football season is in the air, and the unique offseason is causing more questions than answers as we enter our fantasy football drafts. Today we focus on Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott and his fantasy football potential this year.

Dak Prescott’s Fantasy Football ADP

Prescott’s fantasy football average draft position on MyFantasyLeague.com is 39 — the fourth-highest for a quarterback.

Reasons to draft Dak Prescott

During the 2019 season, Prescott set career highs in attempts (596), TD passes (30), yards per attempt (8.2), completions of 20-plus (68) and 40-plus (16) yards while rushing for at least 250 yards and three scores for his fourth straight year.
Expect similar paces in his second season with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and new head coach Mike McCarthy, who both have experience in maximizing the downfield passing skills Prescott boasts.
On top of returning pass-catchers Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, Prescott gets to welcome arguably the No. 1 wideout taken in the 2020 Draft: Oklahoma alum CeeDee Lamb. He’s spoiled with top-notch weapons; sure, it may be tough to pick which one will excel any given week, but which wideout you draft isn’t Dak’s problem.
And if you believe in the intangibles’ effect, Prescott should be even more motivated to prove he’s worth a long-term deal as he plays on a franchise tag.

Reasons not to draft Dak Prescott

The biggest debate is whether fantasy football drafters should pay up for a top-end quarterback. You could replicate — to a degree — his production with some names typically selected later.
Of course, don’t completely write off simple negative regression of Prescott’s pace of production, which may not separate him as starkly from other top-10 quarterbacks. (Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, for example, could have a 2019 Prescott type of 2020 season, and he could be had one or more rounds later in most rooms.)
This is a nitpick for an emerging fantasy trend: I’m not confident in pairing Prescott with a single receiver on his team to make a QB-WR connection stack (for example, drafting Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes with WR Tyreek Hill and/or TE Travis Kelce). None of Cooper, Gallup, nor Lamb fit the bill.

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Where should I draft Dak Prescott in fantasy football drafts?

First, note what format you’re playing.

My most universal advice: Adjust to the QB market dictated by your league settings and draft opponents. You can generally wait a few rounds after Mahomes and the Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson are drafted to go back to considering a quarterback.

If you’re in a superflex or two-QB format, I could easily see taking Prescott as a borderline first-rounder. The top 7-10 QBs will probably go within the first two or three rounds, and Dak’s floor keeps him in top-5 territory.

In normal setups with one-QB lineups, I probably wouldn’t stretch as aggressively as MyFantasyLeague’s ADP dictates. I start considering quarterback only after getting at least five combined running backs and wide receivers, so Round 6 is where I start to seek him out.

If you think you can wind up waiting until Round 8 or later, pounce, but that probably won’t be the case given Prescott’s high profile and the fact he still has a higher ceiling than even his career year of 2019.

When to pick Aaron Jones in your fantasy football draft

Analyzing Aaron Jones’ 2020 fantasy football draft value. What’s the Green Bay Packers running back’s ADP? Is he a sleeper or bust? Undervalued or overvalued?

Fantasy football season is in the air and the unique offseason is causing more questions than answers as we enter our fantasy football drafts. Today we focus on Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones and his fantasy football potential this year.

Aaron Jones’ Fantasy Football ADP

Average Draft Position on MyFantasyLeague: 19.02 (12 teams, PPR redrafts)

Reasons to draft Aaron Jones

Jones scored 19 touchdowns from scrimmage last season, the most in the NFL.
Jones caught a career-high 49 passes last season, averaging 9.7 yards per reception.
Jones totaled 1,558 yards last season on just 285 touches.
In Jones’ last 26 games (including the playoffs), he’s totaled 2,412 yards and 31 touchdowns on 447 touches. That equates to 92. 7 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game.

Reasons not to draft Aaron Jones

The Packers finished the 2019 season with a 13-3 record, which allowed Jones to play in several positive game scripts. With a win total set at nine heading into the 2020 season, the Packers may not be able to stick with the run game as frequently this year.
The Packers used the No. 62 pick in the NFL Draft on RB A.J. Dillon, who could be used in short-yardage situations as a rookie.
With the Packers drafting Dillon, Jones could be used more often in a committee than last season.

Where should I draft Aaron Jones in fantasy football drafts?

After finishing as the No. 2 RB in PPR leagues last season (19.7 PPG), Jones has emerged as a value in drafts this year. Currently going as RB12 on MyFantasyLeague’s ADP, Jones is being drafted as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 by most competitors. He’s being drafted outside of the top 15 picks despite proving what type of ceiling he has in the Packers’ offense.

Considering just how effective he is as a runner and a receiver, it’s hard to see the Packers going away from him anytime soon despite the addition of Dillon. While there is certainly a chance that Dillon cuts into the workload of Jones, it’s worth mentioning that backup Jamaal Williams saw 146 touches last year with the Packers.

Even if Dillon were to approach 170-175 touches, Jones is still dynamic enough to average over 5.3 yards per touch and is a good bet to score double-digit touchdowns once again. Even if Jones ends up in part of a committee, he’s already proven he can be highly useful for fantasy. And if Dillon isn’t ready for that many touches as a rookie, the Packers will lean even more on Jones to carry the load.

If you draw an early pick in your fantasy football drafts, selecting Jones at the bottom of Round 2 would the perfect scenario. But if you have a pick close to the turn in your draft, consider pairing Jones with the likes of Derrick Henry, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or Joe Mixon in the first round.

Jones remains an excellent value anytime in the second round of your PPR drafts and should easily return value once again this season.