Let’s match the stakes of the NFL divisional round with an ambitious wager– a 4-bet parlay. Just so you know, a parlay bet combines two or more wagers together and if one of them loses, the entire bet loses. But the return grows exponentially with each added bet, so the payout might be worth it if you can pick winners. Here’s my 4-bet parlay for the NFL divisional round.
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Ravens -10 (-106) vs. Titans
The No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens host the Tennessee Titans, who are riding high now after upsetting the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in the wild-card round. Since the Ravens are no strangers to laying big numbers—nine of the 14 Ravens’ victories came by double-digits—the RAVENS -10 (-106) is the strongest play of the 4-bet parlay. During the regular season, the Ravens had a lead after the first quarter in 12 of its games, winning 11 of them. If the Titans fall behind early in this matchup, I don’t see them coming back. Their 21st-ranked defense is not stout enough to bottle up the Ravens attack and the Ravens’ defensive personnel should neutralize the Titans’ pass game.
Ravens-Titans Under 47.5 (-115)
Both teams are going to pound the rock this game; the Ravens had the most rushing attempts (596) in the NFL and the Titans were 10th in rushing attempts (445). Also, I envision a very one-sided game for the Ravens who lead the NFL average time per drive (3:21 per drive). So a lot of time could burn off the clock during their drives.
The Ravens’ elite pass defense will give QB Ryan Tannehill fits and allow them to put more defenders in the box to stop the NFL’s leading rusher in Titans RB Derrick Henry. Even though Tannehill led the NFL in multiple passing categories since taking over the Titans starting job, he only threw for 72 yards in the Titans’ 20-13 win over the Patriots and only one team has passed for more than 200 yards in a game on the Ravens since Week 10.
Vikings +7.5 (-134) at 49ers
The Vikings and 49ers have done well against bookmakers’ expectations –they have a combined 20-13 record against the spread this season — so we’ll take the extra juice to get our line above the key number of seven. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS this season when laying 6 or more points; the most points the Vikings were spotted was +5 in Week 17 against the Chicago Bears because they sat most of their starters. According to FootballOutsiders.com, the 49ers are ranked second in team efficiency and the Vikings are ranked seventh, which is the closest team efficiency ranking among competing teams in the divisional round. Point is, the 49ers are NOT 7.5 points better than the Vikings.
Texans +9.5 (-110) at Chiefs
The playoff woes of Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid are well documented: Reid is 2-5 outright and ATS in the playoffs since taking the helm of the Chiefs. Quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Texans put up 30+ points in each of his two games against the Chiefs, including a 34-31 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 6. Also, factoring in the stakes, how explosive the Texans offense can be and the Texans getting 9.5 points, the backdoor will be wide open in this game. There are just too many scenarios where the Texans cover this spread.
BET SLIP: BET $100 TO EARN A PROFIT OF $1,119
- Ravens -10 (-106)
- Ravens-Titans Under 47.5 (-115)
- Vikings +7.5 (-134)
- Texans +9.5 (-110)
NFL odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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