NFL Prop Bet Payday: Sunday Fun Day Edition

Previewing Sunday’s NFL Divisional Round playoff games between the Texans and Chiefs and Seahawks and Packers with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets

The Sunday of Divisional playoff weekend will feature a couple of games with differing looks. People anticipate an offensive shootout between the Texans and Chiefs and just the opposite when Seattle heads to Green Bay – first team to 20 wins.

But, we’re focusing on the individual days the players from all four teams are going to have and have identified ones that we believe can take you to the pay window

Chiefs rookie Mecole Hardman provides sneaky value. Photo Credit: Stan Szeto – USA TODAY Sports

A Hardman Is Good to Find – Of all the stats that are out there for Chiefs players, the one that jumps out to us is Mecole Hardman with an over/under of just 19½ receiving yards (-112 for the over and the under). It’s a dice roll because Hardman has caught just 26 passes as a rookie. But, the key is that he averages 20.7 yards per reception and will be covered by a nickel corner or a safety. We think he can catch one pass and, if his average holds, he hits the number with one reception. Take the over.

Texans running back Duke Johnson has a small hill to climb. Photo Credit: Thomas J. Russo – USA TODAY Sports

The King of All Sir Duke – Duke Johnson was brought to Houston to be the team’s primary receiving back and caught 44 passes for 410 yards. His over/under for receiving yards is 24½ – a number he has surpassed in three of his last four games. The conventional wisdom is that the Chiefs are going to force the issue offensively and the Texans will have to pump. A couple of check-down passes to Johnson could be enough to his that low number if he finds a seam in the defense. Take the over.

All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers presents too much risk this time around. Photo Credit: Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports

Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood – Aaron Rodgers is a Hall of Famer when his career is over, but he hasn’t been the same lights out player he was in previous years. Aside from Davante Adams, he has struggled to elevate one of his young receivers to be a clear No. 2 option. His over/under for passing yards is 251½ (-112 on both over and under). It’s a number you would think he would hit, but the Packers don’t have the explosiveness on offense they’ve had in past years and, with the emergence of Aaron Jones as a legitimate rushing threat, A-Rodg will struggle to hit the number. Take the under.

Seahawks stud Russell Wilson has tall odds to overcome. Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson – USA TODAY Sports

Where There’s a Wilson There’s a Way – Russell Wilson has an identical yardage number as Rodgers at 251½ (-112 on both the over and under). He’s coming off a huge game against a beat-up Eagles defense, but the Green Bay defense will bring a much more daunting challenge. Before last weekend’s game, Wilson had been held under the point in his last four games, six of his last seven and his last four road games. There’s a reason for that. Take the under.

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NFL Playoff 4-Bet Parlay: Divisional Round

Conquer the NFL Divisional Round with a 4-bet parlay featuring the Ravens, Vikings, Chiefs and an over/under.

Let’s match the stakes of the NFL divisional round with an ambitious wager– a 4-bet parlay. Just so you know, a parlay bet combines two or more wagers together and if one of them loses, the entire bet loses. But the return grows exponentially with each added bet, so the payout might be worth it if you can pick winners. Here’s my 4-bet parlay for the NFL divisional round.


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Ravens -10 (-106) vs. Titans 

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson fuels the NFL’s best rushing attack. (Photo credit: Rich Barnes – USA TODAY Sports)

The No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens host the Tennessee Titans, who are riding high now after upsetting the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in the wild-card round. Since the Ravens are no strangers to laying big numbers—nine of the 14 Ravens’ victories came by double-digits—the RAVENS -10 (-106) is the strongest play of the 4-bet parlay. During the regular season, the Ravens had a lead after the first quarter in 12 of its games, winning 11 of them. If the Titans fall behind early in this matchup, I don’t see them coming back. Their 21st-ranked defense is not stout enough to bottle up the Ravens attack and the Ravens’ defensive personnel should neutralize the Titans’ pass game.

Ravens-Titans Under 47.5 (-115)

Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been one of the NFL’s top passers since taking over as the starter, but expect him to struggle to get much going this weekend. (Photo credit: Stan Szeto – USA TODAY Sports)

Both teams are going to pound the rock this game; the Ravens had the most rushing attempts (596) in the NFL and the Titans were 10th in rushing attempts (445). Also, I envision a very one-sided game for the Ravens who lead the NFL average time per drive (3:21 per drive). So a lot of time could burn off the clock during their drives.

The Ravens’ elite pass defense will give QB Ryan Tannehill fits and allow them to put more defenders in the box to stop the NFL’s leading rusher in Titans RB Derrick Henry. Even though Tannehill led the NFL in multiple passing categories since taking over the Titans starting job, he only threw for 72 yards in the Titans’ 20-13 win over the Patriots and only one team has passed for more than 200 yards in a game on the Ravens since Week 10.

Vikings +7.5 (-134) at 49ers 

Kirk Cousins may not emerge from this weekend victorious, but don’t expect him and his Vikings to get blown out, either. (Photo credit: Matthew Emmons – USA TODAY Sports)

The Vikings and 49ers have done well against bookmakers’ expectations –they have a combined 20-13 record against the spread this season — so we’ll take the extra juice to get our line above the key number of seven. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS this season when laying 6 or more points; the most points the Vikings were spotted was +5 in Week 17 against the Chicago Bears because they sat most of their starters. According to FootballOutsiders.com, the 49ers are ranked second in team efficiency and the Vikings are ranked seventh, which is the closest team efficiency ranking among competing teams in the divisional round.  Point is, the 49ers are NOT 7.5 points better than the Vikings.

Texans +9.5 (-110) at Chiefs

Andy Reid and the playoffs have not been the best of friends in recent years. (Photo credit: Mike Dinovo – USA TODAY Sports)

The playoff woes of Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid are well documented:  Reid is 2-5 outright and ATS in the playoffs since taking the helm of the Chiefs. Quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Texans put up 30+ points in each of his two games against the Chiefs, including a 34-31 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 6. Also, factoring in the stakes, how explosive the Texans offense can be and the Texans getting 9.5 points, the backdoor will be wide open in this game. There are just too many scenarios where the Texans cover this spread.

BET SLIP:  BET $100 TO EARN A PROFIT OF $1,119

  • Ravens -10 (-106)
  • Ravens-Titans Under 47.5 (-115)
  • Vikings +7.5 (-134)
  • Texans +9.5 (-110)

NFL odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.