Best bet: Chargers’ Justin Herbert to lead NFL in passing touchdowns

Analyzing the 2023 NFL odds for most passing touchdowns, including an expert prediction and best bet.

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The Los Angeles Chargers are a team seemingly on the rise entering the 2023 season, in large part due to QB Justin Herbert operating the offense. Herbert is entering his fourth season in the NFL and he’s one of the most exciting quarterbacks to watch every week.

Ahead of the 2023 campaign, the Chargers have done a great job surrounding Herbert with plenty of weapons in the passing game. With a deep arsenal and a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, Herbert is a fantastic bet to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns this season.

Below, we look at the 2023 NFL passing TDs leader odds at BetMGM Sportsbook and tab the best bet to make, adding to SportsbookWire.com’s expert NFL picks and predictions.

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2023 NFL odds: Most passing TDs

*-Regular season only

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday, Aug. 22, at 6:57 a.m. ET.

  • Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+200)
  • Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+450)
  • Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+600)
  • JUSTIN HERBERT, Los Angeles Chargers (+700)
  • Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (+900)
  • Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (+1200)
  • Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (+1600)

OTHERS

+2000: Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Dak Prescott (Cowboys)

+2500: Jared Goff (Lions), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)

+3000: Geno Smith (Seahawks), Russell Wilson (Broncos)

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2023 NFL best bet: Most passing TDs

QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (+700)

Since entering the NFL in 2020, Herbert has been one of the most prolific passers due to his arm strength and accuracy. On the outside looking in, Herbert’s 2022 campaign was a disappointing one as he threw for 4,739 yards, but he finished with a career-worst 25 passing touchdowns.

Herbert’s metrics across the board were down in 2022 as he had only 4.5 air yards per completion (2nd lowest in the NFL) and 6.7 intended air yards per attempt (3rd lowest in the NFL).

The Chargers lost standout LT Rashawn Slater to an injury early in the 2022 season, which certainly didn’t help Herbert down the stretch. But on top of that, former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi didn’t seem to maximize Herbert’s strengths.

Moore is now calling the shots on offense, and he’s known as a more aggressive play caller. Prescott had 30 touchdowns in 2019 and 37 touchdowns in 2021 with Moore as his offensive coordinator in Dallas.

Besides Moore, the Chargers have a talented wide receiver trio in WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and rookie WR Quentin Johnston. Also, RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett figure to have decent-sized roles in the aerial attack.

More explosive plays should aid Herbert in the passing touchdown department and the improved situation around him makes the Chargers QB a prime candidate to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns in 2023.

BET JUSTIN HERBERT to finish with the MOST PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+700) in the upcoming season.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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