NFL best prop bets picks odds predictions best bets

This isn’t a column to discuss the debate of the NFL allowing QB Deshaun Watson to play Sunday in Week 13 when the Cleveland Browns (4-7) visit the Houston Texans (1-9-1) at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). It’s about the opportunity for the sports gambler to make some money as Watson makes his season debut after serving an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.

Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL prop bet odds and lines, and tab the best Deshaun Watson Week 13 prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

Watson will face his former team in the Texans Sunday. Watson last played 2 seasons ago in Week 17 (Jan. 3, 2021) when he threw for 365 yards and 3 TDs in a 41-38 home loss to the Tennessee Titans. He started every game that season as Houston struggled through a 4-12 campaign.

Watson demanded a trade after the season, but the Texans weren’t willing to negotiate. He ended up on the inactive list — for “non-injury reasons/personal matter” – and hasn’t played in a regular-season game since.

He was traded to Cleveland in March of 2022 and soon signed a guaranteed 5-year, $230-million deal before receiving the 11-game suspension.

Sunday, he returns to the field.

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Best Deshaun Watson prop bets to make in Week 13

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:38 p.m. ET.

UNDER 239.5 passing yards (-115)

Watson hasn’t played a competitive game at this level in 699 days. There’s no way he’ll be at the top of his game.

But the big reason Watson won’t throw for 240 yards or more is because of Cleveland RB Nick Chubb and Houston’s weak rush defense.

Chubb has 1,039 rushing yards this season — ranking 3rd behind Las Vegas’ Josh Jacobs (1,159) and Tennessee’s Derrick Henry (1,048).

Houston’s rush defense ranks last, allowing 168.6 yards per game.

Look for the Browns to utilize their star back a majority of the day, which will minimize Watson’s passing attempts.

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UNDER 20.5 pass completions (-115)

& UNDER 31.5 pass attempts (-115)

For the same reasons above, the lean is to the Under on these 2 props.

However, AVOID as there’s no need to double down — or triple down — with our UNDER 239.5 passing yards bet.

However, I could see divvying up 1.5 UNITS between the 3 options (Under passing yards, completions and attempts).

OVER 0.5 interceptions (+135)

Watson hasn’t faced an NFL pass rush in some time and he won’t know what hits him Sunday. He’ll likely panic and throw 1 away in the wrong direction.

With Houston’s defense having 7 INTs this season — to rank in the middle of the pack — don’t make this a big bet. We’re getting value with the “plus-money” at +135, anyway.

If you’re wondering, the Under on this prop is listed at -170.

OVER/UNDER 1.5 passing TDs (+100 | -130)

PASS on this prop, no pun intended.

If I had to choose, it’s an Under play because of Chubb vs. Houston’s Swiss cheese rush defense.

There’s no reason Watson should be throwing the ball that much Sunday.

In the Texans’ 11 games, they allowed Over 1.5 TDs just 3 times. The other 8 games would be winners on an Under play here.

OVER 24.5 rushing yards (-115)

Running the ball will be much easier than passing the ball for Watson in his 1st game back.

In his last full season, he ran for 25 yards or more in 11 of Houston’s 16 games.

Against Houston’s rush defense, he’ll likely do so Sunday.

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The Los Angeles Rams (3-7) face the Kansas City Chiefs (8-2) Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in a Week 12 cross-conference matchup in Week 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the 5 best Kansas City Chiefs player prop bets to win on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

The Rams are having a tough season coming off their Super Bowl LVI title. They’re currently on a 4-game losing streak, though their last 3 losses have been decided by 10 points or fewer. To make matters worse for Los Angeles, star WR Cooper Kupp and QB Matthew Stafford are officially out for this game. That means either John Wolford or Bryce Perkins will earn the start at QB.

The Chiefs are on the opposite trend with a 4-game winning streak. They’re coming off a 30-27 road win over their division rival Los Angeles Chargers. QB Patrick Mahomes is having an MVP-caliber season in 2022, leading the league in passing yards (3,265), passing touchdowns (28), passing 1st downs (170) and 40+ yard passes (tied with Bills QB Josh Allen at 9).

Also see: Rams at Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

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Best 5 Chiefs player prop bets to make in Week 12

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:20 a.m. ET.

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 64.5 rushing yards (-115)

Pacheco, a 7th-round rookie, was named the Chiefs’ starting running back in Week 7. It took time for the Chiefs to establish the run with Pacheco, but getting him the ball has been a focal point for Kansas City in the last 2 games. Pacheco has 189 yards on 31 carries during those games, averaging over 6 yards per carry.

It seems likely the Chiefs will try to get Pacheco more ground work against the Rams. L.A. does boast the league’s 4th-best run defense, allowing just 95.3 rushing yards per game, but the Chiefs could try to feed Pacheco later in the game if they go up early against one of the Rams’ backup QBs. Hitting 65 yards should be easy for the rookie.

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Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: ANYTIME TD: (-190)

At 33 years old, Kelce somehow seems to be getting better as he ages. He has already matched his season high in receiving TDs (11) with 7 games to go. He’s scored in 6 of 10 games this season and has had 2 multi-score games, including a 3-score game last week.

Mahomes loves to target Kelce in the red zone where the Chiefs tight end is nearly unstoppable. Betting on Kelce’s anytime TD is basically a no-brainer every week.

Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon OVER 20.5 receiving yards (-115)

McKinnon didn’t have any receiving yards last week, but in Weeks 5-10 he averaged 36.0 receiving yards per game. While Pacheco is considered the lead back, McKinnon is the team’s 3rd-down back due to his blocking ability. With DT Aaron Donald on the opposing side, you can bet McKinnon will be in on plenty of passing downs to make sure Mahomes goes untouched. Plus, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out with an injury, making McKinnon that much more important in the K.C. offense.

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Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster OVER 4.5 receptions (-150)

Smith-Schuster was on pace to earn a decent workload in Week 10 before getting hit and going out with a concussion. He missed Week 11, but coach Andy Reid says Smith-Schuster will be available against the Rams.

Before his injury, Smith-Schuster was developing quite a rapport with Mahomes. In Weeks 6-9 he earned 22 receptions for 325 yards and 2 TDs in 3 games. He’s earned a reputation as the team’s most reliable WR and should earn plenty of targets in Week 12, so 5 receptions should be easy for him to hit.

Chiefs TE Jody Fortson: ANYTIME TD: (+400)

If you’re looking for a potential big payout on a dark horse candidate, look no further than the Fortson TD. It’s a long shot, sure, but Mahomes will look to Fortson in the red zone on occasion due to Fortson’s size and good hands. Fortson has 2 TDs in 6 games this season and pulled in 2 receptions for 51 yards last week. You may want to keep this long-shot bet out of your parlays this week, but it may be worth taking a flier on Fortson as a separate bet.